Re: [閒聊] Tom60229 FB - 回應世界賽首戰疑問
看板Hearthstone作者panruru1224 (booooooored)時間7年前 (2017/04/14 10:14)推噓84(87推 3噓 66→)留言156則, 88人參與討論串2/5 (看更多)
看了一下最後血法的操作
覺得是很有趣的機率題目就稍微算了一下
====下面開始有點數學====
先定義兩個獨立的隨機事件
x:當回合點血法抽排 (簡稱點抽)
y:當回合施放冰腳可以多活一回合
所以我們要求的勝率又可以寫成
P(win) = P(win|x,y) P(x,y)
+P(win|x,!y) P(x,!y)
+P(win|!x,y) P(!x,y)
+P(win|!x,!y)P(!x,!y)
(這裡的P(x,y)指的是P(x and y) !x指的是x沒發生 以此類推)
接下來就要開始個別討論了
先從最簡單的開始
P( win | !x, !y) (不點抽且施放冰腳會死的勝率)
很明顯的這項會是0
再來是
P( win | !x, y) (不點抽且施放冰腳不會死的勝率)
因為施放冰腳可以多活一回合
那最佳情況就是冰腳+火衝點對面一下,下回合血法+2火球收頭
所以勝率是1
P( win | x, !y) (點抽且施放冰腳會死的勝率)
這個情況下一定要點抽到冰箱->冰箭或見習->冰箱->冰箭才會贏
所以機率是1/(5*4)+1/(5*4*3)=1/15
最後是
P( win | x, y) (點抽且施放冰腳不會死的勝率)
(這個應該是最麻煩的情況 我也不確定有沒有算對)
由於大哥說牌庫剩下 冰腳(剛抽到) 冰箱 見習 冰箭
以及兩張不重要的牌(這裡假設是兩張不影響勝負的白板)
則下列幾種進牌順序會"輸"
見習->白->白 P=2/(5*4*3)=1/30
白->見習->白 P=2/(5*4*3)=1/30
冰箱->白->白 P=2/(5*4*3)=1/30
白->冰箱->白 P=2/(5*4*3)=1/30
白->冰箱->見習->白 P=2/(5*4*3*2)=1/60
由此可知
P(win|x,y)=1-4/30-1/60=51/60
套回原式會得到
P(win)=0.85*P(x,y)+0.07*P(x,!y)+P(!x,y)
又x,y獨立
P(win)=0.85*P(x)P(y)+0.07*P(x)(1-P(y))+(1-P(x))P(y)
====有點數學的地方結束了====
把圖畫出來大概是長這樣
http://imgur.com/Qrq1NXg
y軸是打冰腳存活的機率 x軸是點抽的機率
顏色越深代表勝率越低 反之越淺代表越高
可以發現當施放冰腳存活的機率越高的時候要點抽反而會降低勝率
而這個現象只有到冰腳存活率落在0.3左右的時候才會開始逆轉
(跟某位板友的預測的存活率蠻接近的)
結論
大哥是對的
謝謝大家的收看
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