[閒聊] Tom60229 FB - 回應世界賽首戰疑問
看板Hearthstone作者Muting46 (Don't Panic)時間7年前 (2017/04/13 23:14)推噓61(63推 2噓 51→)留言116則, 68人參與討論串1/5 (看更多)
source:https://www.facebook.com/tom60229/posts/657465781111804
本來不是很想打這種認真文的 但粉絲團爆多人私訊加上一堆人說亂打靠賽
我們認真來討論一下冰法的最後幾步好了
如果有人能幫我附上影片連結最好哈哈
(https://youtu.be/A-BkjhMRqr8?t=21m14s)
首先從紅龍那回合說起
牌庫剩6 見習冰腳冰箱寒冰箭 兩張不重要的東西
這邊有一個大前提 冰腳不一定有用
對面只要有回手或傷害(唬爛拿的法術之類的)
冰腳就一點屁用都沒有
血法雙火球的話=>下回合抽兩張 抽到冰箱一定贏 1/3
可還有見習 見習接冰箱的話大約是1/3*1/4=1/12(應該要扣掉冰箱+見習在前兩張啦顆顆)
所以這樣打接下來摸到的機率大約是5/12
紅龍的話=>下回合先抽一張 寒冰冰箱贏 1/3
抽到見習的話是1/6*1/5=1/30(見習冰箱點一下)
還有見習抽完血法抽冰箱最後接到寒冰 1/6*4/5*1/4*1/3=1/90
還有一種是都沒抽到點掉血法接到冰箱(or見習接冰箱)
然後再接到寒冰箭
所以大概是1/2*1/5*1/4(點掉後冰箱接寒冰)=1/40
+1/2*1/5*1/4*1/3(點見習接冰箱接寒冰)=1/120
沒意外的話血法雙火球應該高一點點 1/45之類的我猜(不負責任言論XD)
再加上不知道能不能成功的冰腳的話我就不會算了
好在來是進冰腳的那一回合
這邊大前提一定是 冰腳感覺死亡率很高
所以我們要找的是冰箱 假如冰腳不會死=>冰箱冰腳一定贏 因為對面沒辦法馬上破冰
如果點掉血法進寒冰箭=>冰腳+寒冰砸臉
進見習比較微妙 但見習冰腳完我們活著 所以在下一回合贏的機率是2/3
這回合我比較懶得算 因為直覺就是點掉贏的機率高很多
當然前提是冰腳冰不住啦 但對面唬爛拿一張 牌庫又還有兩張左右的回手吧 感覺機率不低
認真算的結果大概是紅龍那回合錯一點點(2%之類的差距吧)
但血法點掉那一回合我是覺得應該算都不用算啦 而且有點難算所謂冰腳不會死的機率到
底是多少
以上 大概是這樣 有人要幫我認真算嗎XDDD
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