[爆卦] 解放軍若介入香港，恐造成中國企業崩潰
看板Gossiping作者gaidehao (Algernon)時間4年前 (2019/08/04 19:44)推噓134(152推 18噓 133→)留言303則, 196人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)
英國經濟權威的金融時報爆料，中國公司今年向外募資了6470億美元，佔亞洲美金總募資
額的75%，而且絕大多數是透過香港的金融市場進行。
如果香港金融市場因為中國解放軍介入香港而崩潰，可能造成中國企業資金短缺，跟香港
一起崩潰。
底下是金融時報的原文及翻譯:
Hong Kong: what next for China’s halfway house?
作為中國與國際社會接軌的中途之家(*註1)，香港的未來?
註1:中途之家是罪犯離開監獄融入法治社會待的地方，暗喻中國仍未融入法治社會
Any military intervention by Beijing would threaten the role the city plays in
opening China’s economy to the world
北京只要對香港採取任何軍事干預，都會危及香港作為中國對國際開放經貿的中介腳色
Don Weinland, Joseph Leahy and Henny Sender in Hong Kong AUGUST 3, 2019
Don Weinland、Joseph Leahy及Henny Sender，在香港 2019/8/3
As Hong Kong police clashed with protesters last Sunday, firing tear gas and r
ubber bullets into a crowd in the central business district, chief executive C
arrie Lam was at a very different event across the city. She was guest of hono
ur at a youth summer camp organised by China’s People’s Liberation Army.
上週日，香港警方在市中心商業區與示威抗議的香港居民發生衝突，香港警方不斷地朝人
群發射催淚瓦斯及橡膠子彈。而香港特首林鄭月娥正在城市的另一端參加完全不一樣的活
動，林鄭被邀請參加中國人民解放軍所舉辦的香港青少年軍事夏令營結業典禮。
Ms Lam’s host was Major General Chen Daoxiang, a senior Chinese officer in Ho
ng Kong who used another public event on Wednesday — the celebration of the 9
2nd anniversary of the creation of the PLA — to deliver a clear message: the
world’s largest army was prepared to put down the protest movement in the cit
y should China’s President Xi Jinping give the order.
邀請林鄭月娥到解放軍軍營的，是解放軍駐港部隊司令將軍陳道祥(出席的還有中聯辦主
任王志民、全國政協副主席董建華)。陳道祥在周三，更透過另一個公開活動─慶祝人民
解放軍成立92周年，傳達一個清楚的訊息。人民解放軍做為世界上最大的軍隊之一，已經
準備好撲滅香港的示威抗議，只等中國國家主席習近平一聲令下。
“Violent protests” were “absolutely impermissible”, he said. At the same t
ime, the PLA released a video showing his men engaging in riot prevention and
anti-terrorist training.
「暴力抗爭是絕對不被允許的」陳道祥說道。同時，人民解放軍也在網路上放上影片，展
示解放軍應對暴力衝突的預防舉措，以及反恐訓練。
The comments have raised what once would have seemed an unthinkable spectre: t
hat the city could face its own version of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown
on pro-democracy supporters in Beijing.
越來越多的評論指出，香港的命運可能正朝過去從未預料到的結局邁進：香港可能面對如
同1989年天安門事變，解放軍在北京鎮壓支持民主的群眾。
Hong Kong, however, is very much not Beijing. Ever since China began its econo
mic reforms in the late 1970s — and especially since the handover when it was
returned by the UK to Chinese control — Hong Kong has been a vital conduit t
o the rest of the world.
然而，香港當然與北京非常不同。自從中國在1970年代末期進行改革開放，且特別是從香
港在1997年後由英國”回歸”中國控制，香港對世界上其他的國家來說，一直都是非常活
躍的交易管道。
China’s acceptance of the “one country, two systems” formula, by which Chin
a guaranteed Hong Kong 50 years of political and legal autonomy after the 1997
handover, has been an important part of its claim to be a reliable internatio
nal partner. It is central to Beijing’s aspirations to eventually take back c
ontrol over Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province.
由於中國願意接受”一國兩制”的統治方式，在中國的統治下，保證香港的政治自治、司
法獨立，從1997年香港回歸開始，維持50年不變。中國對於一國兩制的保證，讓香港仍能
宣稱自己是可信任的國際夥伴。香港之所以能獲得北京一國兩制的保證，是為了對被視作
叛亂省份的台灣展示未來與中國統一後的樣板。
Hong Kong has provided a forum to bring together businesses and investors from
very different systems who might not otherwise trust each other. For wealthy
Chinese with worries about political events at home, it has also been an essen
tial bolt-hole.
由於一國兩制的保證，香港提供了一個平台，讓來自不同制度及背景的企業及投資者，能
夠在不信任彼此的情況下，在香港互相合作。對於那些恐懼北京政治黑手的中國富豪來說
，香港也是非常好的避難地。
Military intervention — even if that is still just a vague threat — would sh
atter the essential role Hong Kong has played as a business and investment hal
fway house.
然而，如果中國真的動用軍事力量介入香港，即使只是模糊地威脅，都將摧毀香港到目前
為止作為對中國進行商業與投資的中途之家的重要角色。
“If China wants to mix with the outside world, it needs Hong Kong to do that
because capital cannot move freely outside of China,” says Terence Chong, the
executive director of the Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Fina
nce at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. “You still don’t have an alterna
tive.”
「如果中國仍想要與世界其他國家往來，中國就需要香港扮演中途之家的角色。因為資金
並不能自由地進出中國。」，香港中文大學劉佐德全球經濟及金融研究所所長Terence Ch
ong說道。「中國仍沒有其他替代管道」。
Yet despite the economic and political risks, some sort of crackdown remains p
ossible — both because of the reluctance of Chinese president Xi Jinping to b
e seen backing down in the face of protesters, and because it is not clear wha
t concessions would be necessary to end the demonstrations.
即使不考慮經濟與政治的風險，香港仍有可能會崩潰─因為習近平不願意對示威抗議者讓
步，且北京並不清楚讓步到什麼程度才能結束示威抗議。這兩者都讓香港暴露於崩潰的可
能性之中。
The protest movement that started as opposition to an extradition bill to allo
w Hong Kong to send criminal suspects to China for trial has turned into a pop
ular revolt. Even though Ms Lam has shelved the bill, the protesters have expa
nded their demands to include direct elections for the chief executive and the
Hong Kong legislature.
香港的示威抗議運動一開始只是反對香港政府通過送中條例(引渡法案)，允許香港依照中
國司法檢察體系的命令，將犯罪嫌疑人送往中國接受審判。然而這已逐步轉變為香港民眾
起義。雖然林鄭月娥號稱擱置了這項法案(目前林鄭月娥仍未撤回送中條例，僅表示送中
條例已經死亡)，但抗議者已將抗議的訴求擴大至包括香港特首和香港立法機關的直接選
舉。
As the protesters have dug in, the government has taken an increasingly hardli
ne approach. This week, it charged 44 people arrested over the weekend with ri
oting, which carries sentences of up to 10 years in prison. Meanwhile, police
have yet to charge the gangs filmed attacking protesters and passers-by while
they were returning home on the city’s commuter railway in the outlying distr
ict of Yuen Long earlier in July.
隨著香港示威抗議者不斷地在各地發起遊行，香港政府的態度則越來越強硬。本週，香港
警方以製造騷亂為名義，逮捕了44名香港人，根據法律，這些人可被判處長達10年的徒刑
。與此同時，警方尚未針對七月初在元朗偏遠地區的城市通勤鐵路上返家時襲擊抗議者和
路人的黑道，進行任何偵辦動作。
There is no sign of the movement losing steam. Civil servants were the latest
group to join in, holding their own demonstration on Friday. This has put the
onus back on Beijing to either offer a compromise, to calm the situation, or t
o escalate it.
沒有任何跡象顯示，這場反送中運動會逐漸平息。香港公務員是最新加入抗爭的團體，將
在週五舉行示威遊行。這使得北京可能被迫要決定，妥協，平息局面；或升級對抗的態勢
。
“It looks like a vicious cycle and whatever silver lining there might be has
to come from Beijing,” says Willy Lam, a China expert at the Chinese Universi
ty of Hong Kong. “But we don’t see Xi Jinping adopting conciliatory measures
because he is an arch-conservative and he likes to show a tough guy image.”
香港中文大學的中國專家Willy Lam說，「這看起來像是一個惡性循環，無論一線曙光可
能來自何處，都必須要北京願意。」，「但我們並不認為習近平會採取和解措施，因為習
是一名保守派，他喜歡表現出硬漢形象。」
As Beijing weighs its options, the headline figures suggest that Hong Kong has
become less important. When the UK handed back control in 1997, the Hong Kong
economy was equivalent to 18 per cent of the mainland’s gross domestic produ
ct. Now it accounts for less than 3 per cent of China’s economy.
如果北京權衡他們可以採取的行動，從經濟數字來看，或許香港對北京來說已不那麼重要
了。當香港在1997年由英國手中回歸中國時，香港經濟相當於大陸國內生產總值(GDP)的1
8％。現在香港佔中國經濟GDP的比例還不到3％。
But those numbers disguise the role that the city still plays. In order to rai
se funding in US dollars, Chinese companies lean heavily on Hong Kong’s finan
cial markets — markets which are rooted in the city’s independent legal syst
em based on English Common Law.
但這些數字並沒有真實地呈現香港在中國市場扮演的角色。中國公司為了籌集美元資金，
仍嚴重依賴香港的金融市場─香港金融市場仍是遵循英國普通法的獨立法律體系。
Without the legal framework, China’s legion of state and privately owned comp
anies could struggle to continue to raise war chests of US dollars in the city
, while Hong Kong’s status as a safe base for those companies to invest overs
eas could also be threatened.
如果香港沒有獨立的法律框架，中國的國有企業和私營公司都很難繼續在香港募資美元作
為商業戰的資金，而香港作為這些公司在海外投資的安全基地的地位也可能受到威脅。
“I do not see an entirely open capital account, as we know it, being adopted
any time soon on the mainland of China,” says Joseph Yam, former chief execut
ive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank.
香港金融管理局（香港中央銀行）前總裁任志剛（Joseph Yam）表示，「我認為，正如我
們所知，我看不到中國內地可以很快地採用完全開放的資本流通帳戶。」
Hong Kong’s capital markets are now dominated by Chinese corporations, which
accounted for 91 per cent of the $9.4bn raised in initial public offerings thi
s year in the city. In debt capital markets, Chinese companies have borrowed $
647bn in US dollar fundraising, or 75 per cent of all US dollars raised in Asi
a this year. Most of those debt deals are launched in Hong Kong.
香港的資本市場目前幾乎由中國企業主導，今年首次公開發行募資(IPO)的94億美元，有9
1％是中國企業的需求。在債務資本市場，中國公司已經借入了6470億美元的美元融資，
佔今年亞洲所有美元募資交易的75％。大部分的交易都是在香港進行。
There are other signs, however, that Hong Kong’s economic importance is fadin
g. The territory remains dependent on its oligopolistic and overpriced propert
y sector, in which supply is tightly controlled, even as neighbouring Shenzhen
, home to technology giants such as Tencent, has surged ahead to become China
’s Silicon Valley.
雖然，其他的跡象顯示，香港對中國經濟的重要性正在消退。香港的金融業仍依賴其被少
數人壟斷和價格過高的房地產行業，但其供應受到嚴格的管控。而鄰近香港的深圳，擁有
像是騰訊這類的科技巨頭，則正在崛起成為中國的矽谷。
Some business leaders believe that the equity markets in Shenzhen and Shanghai
are realistic contenders to replace Hong Kong as Asia’s top financial centre
. In 2017, before markets became spooked by the trade friction between the US
and China, Hong Kong was only third largest in the world by funds raised in IP
Os — Shanghai and New York were ahead by value.
一些商界領袖認為，深圳和上海的股票市場將是取代香港成為亞洲頂級金融中心的競爭者
。 2017年，在市場因美中貿易摩擦而受到驚嚇之前，香港在首次公開募股中籌集的資金
僅是全球第三大─落後於上海和紐約。
“In the past there was a long way for Shanghai to catch up. Now [China is in]
a position to, attract back, and list A-shares,” Laura Cha, chairman of the
Hong Kong exchange concedes, referring to shares listed in the mainland. “Hon
g Kong cannot be complacent.”
「過去，上海要與香港競爭，還有很長的路要走。但現在中國正處於吸引和吸收A股資金
的位置，」香港交易所主席Laura Cha承認，相較於在大陸上市的股票資金，「香港不能
自滿。」
The battle between protesters and the government is already hurting Hong Kong
’s economy. Iris Pang, an economist at Dutch bank ING, has lowered her outloo
k for GDP growth for the year from 1.8 per cent to 1 per cent.
示威抗議者與香港政府之間的纏鬥已經傷害了香港的經濟。荷蘭銀行ING的經濟學家Iris
Pang將香港今年GDP的增長前景從1.8％下調至1％。
“The independent legal jurisdiction of Hong Kong is what Hong Kong needs, and
it’s what China needs,” Ms Pang says. “China will not destroy this aspect
of Hong Kong any time soon.”
「香港獨立的法律管轄權是香港所需要的，也是中國需要的，」Iris Pang說。 「相信中
國不會想要在近期破壞香港這方面的獨立性。 」
As political and economic pressure builds, rifts are starting to appear even a
mong Hong Kong’s tycoon class — which, since the handover, has tended to tak
e Beijing’s side.ꀊ
隨著政治和經濟壓力不斷地增加，香港富豪們針對反送中的態度也出現了分歧─自回歸以
來，香港的富豪們多傾向於跟北京站在同一邊。ꀊ
David Li, executive chairman of the city’s last family-owned lender Bank of E
ast Asia, told local media in July that he supported an independent investigat
ion into the actions of the police. In stark contrast, 82-year-old Tung Chee-h
wa, another tycoon and the first chief executive of Hong Kong following the ha
ndover, said on Wednesday foreign forces such as the US and Taiwan had helped
organise the protests. It is a claim often repeated by officials in Beijing.
香港最後一家家族銀行東亞銀行的執行主席David Li，7月時向香港媒體表示，他支持對
警方行動進行獨立調查。與此形成鮮明對比的是，82歲的董建華，另一位富豪，也是香港
回歸後的第一任行政長官，週三則表示，「美國和台灣等外國勢力幫助香港民眾組織抗議
活動。」，這是北京官員經常重複的一個主張。
Business groups and some of the city’s financial bodies are pushing the gover
nment to compromise. The normally conservative Hong Kong General Chamber of Co
mmerce called for the extradition bill to be completely withdrawn, ministers t
o be made accountable for the mishandling of the protests, and an independent
commission of inquiry to probe “the root of the tensions”.
香港的商業團體和一些金融機構正在迫使香港政府與抗議民眾妥協。一向保守的香港總商
會要求將送中條例完全撤回，港府要對錯誤處理抗議活動負責，並設立獨立調查委員會以
調查「緊張局勢的根源」。
James Tien of the city’s pro-establishment Liberal party, says he believes ju
st the withdrawal of the bill and an inquiry might be enough to satisfy some m
embers of the movement. “If these two issues were addressed, the majority of
people would cool down.” he says.
香港自由黨的James Tien表示，他相信該法案的撤回和調查可能足以滿足反送中運動的一
些成員。「如果這兩個問題得到解決，大多數人都會冷靜下來。」，他說。
Analysts say the rising economic pressures on China, from slowing growth to th
e trade war, mean that Beijing will seek to avoid the nuclear option of a mili
tary intervention in Hong Kong, instead opting for a war of attrition. This wa
s the strategy the government used during the wave of pro-democracy protests i
n 2014, which eventually petered out as the public tired of disruption.
分析師表示，中國經濟的壓力逐漸增加，從GDP增長放緩到貿易戰，代表北京將尋求避免
在香港進行如核彈般的軍事干預，而是選擇消耗戰。這與北京政府在2014年追求真普選的
民主抗議浪潮中使用的策略一致，2014年的抗爭，最終隨著公眾厭倦遍地開花的抗爭而逐
漸消失。
Whatever the outcome, some senior business figures are hoping Hong Kong can mu
ster the same resilience it brought to past crises. “Over the years it has fa
ced a number of difficult circumstances, like the SARS[flu] crisis, Occupy Cen
tral and the global financial crisis,” says JosVi鎙ls, chairman at Standard
Chartered. “And Hong Kong has always survived those crises and come back to
what it knows how to do.”
無論香港最終的命運如何，一些資深的商界人士都希望香港能夠如同過去面臨危機時，擁
有同樣的彈性。渣打銀行董事長JosVi鎙ls表示，「多年來，香港曾面臨過許多困境，
例如SARS危機，佔領中環和全球金融危機。」，「香港一直從危機中再度站起，並回到它
知道如何做的事情上。」
原文網址：
https://www.ft.com/content/3c0860a0-b506-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.137.142.231 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1564919088.A.382.html
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08/04 19:48, 26F
→
08/04 19:49,
4年前
, 27F
08/04 19:49, 27F
→
08/04 19:49,
4年前
, 28F
08/04 19:49, 28F
推
08/04 19:49,
4年前
, 29F
08/04 19:49, 29F
噓
08/04 19:49,
4年前
, 30F
08/04 19:49, 30F
→
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 31F
08/04 19:50, 31F
推
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 32F
08/04 19:50, 32F
→
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 33F
08/04 19:50, 33F
推
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 34F
08/04 19:50, 34F
→
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 35F
08/04 19:50, 35F
噓
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 36F
08/04 19:50, 36F
噓
08/04 19:50,
4年前
, 37F
08/04 19:50, 37F
噓
08/04 19:51,
4年前
, 38F
08/04 19:51, 38F
噓
08/04 19:51,
4年前
, 39F
08/04 19:51, 39F
還有 224 則推文
→
08/04 22:56,
4年前
, 264F
08/04 22:56, 264F
推
08/04 22:57,
4年前
, 265F
08/04 22:57, 265F
推
08/04 22:59,
4年前
, 266F
08/04 22:59, 266F
推
08/04 23:05,
4年前
, 267F
08/04 23:05, 267F
推
08/04 23:12,
4年前
, 268F
08/04 23:12, 268F
推
08/04 23:12,
4年前
, 269F
08/04 23:12, 269F
推
08/04 23:16,
4年前
, 270F
08/04 23:16, 270F
推
08/04 23:20,
4年前
, 271F
08/04 23:20, 271F
推
08/04 23:21,
4年前
, 272F
08/04 23:21, 272F
推
08/04 23:22,
4年前
, 273F
08/04 23:22, 273F
→
08/04 23:24,
4年前
, 274F
08/04 23:24, 274F
推
08/04 23:29,
4年前
, 275F
08/04 23:29, 275F
推
08/04 23:40,
4年前
, 276F
08/04 23:40, 276F
推
08/04 23:41,
4年前
, 277F
08/04 23:41, 277F
推
08/04 23:42,
4年前
, 278F
08/04 23:42, 278F
推
08/04 23:59,
4年前
, 279F
08/04 23:59, 279F
推
08/05 00:06,
4年前
, 280F
08/05 00:06, 280F
推
08/05 00:39,
4年前
, 281F
08/05 00:39, 281F
→
08/05 00:59,
4年前
, 282F
08/05 00:59, 282F
推
08/05 01:08,
4年前
, 283F
08/05 01:08, 283F
推
08/05 01:35,
4年前
, 284F
08/05 01:35, 284F
→
08/05 01:35,
4年前
, 285F
08/05 01:35, 285F
推
08/05 01:43,
4年前
, 286F
08/05 01:43, 286F
推
08/05 01:57,
4年前
, 287F
08/05 01:57, 287F
→
08/05 01:57,
4年前
, 288F
08/05 01:57, 288F
推
08/05 02:33,
4年前
, 289F
08/05 02:33, 289F
推
08/05 02:55,
4年前
, 290F
08/05 02:55, 290F
→
08/05 02:56,
4年前
, 291F
08/05 02:56, 291F
推
08/05 03:29,
4年前
, 292F
08/05 03:29, 292F
推
08/05 03:46,
4年前
, 293F
08/05 03:46, 293F
推
08/05 06:24,
4年前
, 294F
08/05 06:24, 294F
→
08/05 08:30,
4年前
, 295F
08/05 08:30, 295F
推
08/05 09:17,
4年前
, 296F
08/05 09:17, 296F
推
08/05 10:05,
4年前
, 297F
08/05 10:05, 297F
噓
08/05 12:56,
4年前
, 298F
08/05 12:56, 298F
推
08/05 15:57,
4年前
, 299F
08/05 15:57, 299F
推
08/05 21:24,
4年前
, 300F
08/05 21:24, 300F
推
08/06 00:52,
4年前
, 301F
08/06 00:52, 301F
噓
08/06 05:56,
4年前
, 302F
08/06 05:56, 302F
推
08/06 20:00,
4年前
, 303F
08/06 20:00, 303F
討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 1 之 2 篇)：
爆卦
134
303