Re: [閒聊] 是否需要組第三政黨?或其他選項?
看板FuMouDiscuss作者taidocky (taidocky)時間10年前 (2014/04/14 02:25)推噓29(29推 0噓 65→)留言94則, 17人參與討論串3/3 (看更多)
組黨除非能造成KMT的選票流失
否則最後都只是KMT漁翁得利
尤其是KMT最會搞分化了....
想想看這次參與學運的各團體
如果每個都被煽動分化組黨,那根本就是一盤散沙了....
所以能做的,就是繼續我們的小蜜蜂行動
想辦法讓那些淺藍的覺醒,把政黨票投給親民黨或DPP
如果真的要組黨的話
新的政黨大概只有在不分區才有機會拿到席次
而在區域立委的部分
除非柯P、國昌戰神等這類有高度聲旺氣勢的人出來選
否則其他素人根本沒有勝算
而且,選區域就不能選不分區
所以,除非真的有把握能在區域立委當選,否則只是葬送人才
再來,不分區門檻要有5%得票率
以2012年的立委選舉來看大概要拿到67萬票才能分到不分區席次
(不過2012年是特例,因為和總統併選所以立委投票率也高(75%),造成門檻票數也高
以往我國立委投票率大概60%左右,5%門檻大概50萬票)
而且才分到兩席!!! ====>不能組成黨團(要3席)
組成黨團才能參加黨團協商(黨團協商是立院重要的機制,也是利益交換黑箱的地方...)
在黨團協商中每個黨權力都是一樣大的,不管席次多少
要達到組成黨團的程度,大概要100萬票(10%)
如果成立的新政黨無法拿到5%以上的票
那抱歉了,一切都是廢票.......
所以,綜上所述
成立新政黨在這時候只是中了KMT的詭計
如此只是分裂在野的勢力
要對抗KMT,在野勢力一定要大團結阿!!!
挖淺藍的選票,讓他們把票投給親民黨(願意投DPP那就更好啦~)
但是如果你是想把票投給DPP的
經過這次學運後,我到覺得你應該考慮支持一下台聯
台聯在立院席次少,只有三席,所以也沒什麼機會上新聞博版面
跟民進黨比起來
其實台聯對於ECFA、服貿、割闌尾行動都是默默在做的
小蜜蜂戰術下鄉宣傳反服貿他們早在去年就開始做了
http://ppt.cc/qk2S
而且投給台聯也能給DPP一個警訊
(票投給台聯也不會造成在野勢力的分裂)
讓他們知道他們其實也漸漸的在被民意所拋棄
DPP在立院擋服貿審查是玩真的還假的呢?
呵呵~服貿過後要號召全民包圍立法院,你覺得是玩真的還假的?
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