[國媒] 經濟學人：鹿茸的困境

看板FuMouDiscuss作者up0003 (travel often)時間10年前 (2014/03/29 05:46)推噓0(1推 1噓 8→)

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因為前篇翻譯錯譯太多，忍不住早上五點不睡爬起來翻了請各位翻譯前輩多指教藍字為個人解讀譯文可自由轉載原址(經濟學人Mar 29th 2014)： http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21599812-ambitions-ma-ying-jeou-taiwans-pres ident-collide-popular-suspicion-china 縮址： http://goo.gl/AxO25t Title： On the antlers of a dilemma 鹿茸的困境 The ambitions of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s president, collide with popular suspicion of China 台灣總統馬英九的鴻圖大志，和對中國有所疑慮的主流民意衝突 THE fresh-faced good looks have been lined and drawn by the cares of office. His immaculate English is forsaken for the dignity of immaculate Mandarin. Patient replies to questions come wearily, as if said many times before. Yet, six years into his presidency, Ma Ying-jeou’s hair remains as lush and jet-black as any Chinese Politburo member’s. And, speaking in the presidential palace in Taipei, he remains as unwilling as any leader in Beijing to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy. 馬英九的英俊清新外表，公務的勞煩下有了歲月的痕跡。為了顧及他完美無暇的中文，只好拋棄他完美無暇的英文。帶著疲倦耐心回答問題，好像已經說過數次一樣的回應。然而，在他至今六年的總統任期，馬英九的頭髮仍梳得和中國政治人物一樣黝黑光亮；在台北總統府的談話，他也和任何北京領導人一樣，不願承認策略有任何根本上的疏漏。作者一開頭就酸馬英九的外表，和他大打太極，和中國政客一樣死不認錯 Perhaps Mr Ma draws inspiration from his portrait of Sun Yat-sen, founder of his ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and, in 1912, of the Republic of China to which Taiwan’s government still owes its name. Sun is revered as a nationalist hero not just by the KMT but, across the Taiwan Strait, by the Chinese Communist Party too. Mr Ma may also hope to be feted on both sides of the strait—in his case as a leader responsible for a historic rapprochement. For now, however, reconciliation between Taiwan and China remains distant. And Mr Ma, once the KMT’s most popular politician, is taunted by opponents as the “9% president”, a reference to his approval ratings in opinion polls last autumn. 也許馬英九想成為另外一個孫中山。孫中山是執政黨國民黨的創始人，並在1912年成立了中華民國，而至今台灣政府仍沿用這個國號。孫中山被國民黨、甚至是海峽對岸的共產黨尊為國家英雄。馬英九可能也希望能夠同時被海峽兩岸尊敬─對他而言，就是成為促成兩岸和解的領導人。然而，時至今日，台灣和中國的和解仍遙遙無期。馬英九曾經是國民黨最受歡迎的政治人物，現在被反對者酸為「9%總統」，因為去年秋天的民調滿意度已下滑至9%。馬英九就是想要尋求兩岸和解(統一?)的歷史定位 Improving relations with China has been the central theme of his administration, after the tensions of eight years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards declaring formal independence from the mainland. Mr Ma can boast of 21 agreements signed with China. He reels off the numbers of two fast-integrating economies: a tenfold increase in six years in mainland tourists to Taiwan, to 2.85m in 2013; cross-strait flights from none at all to 118 every day; two-way trade, including with Hong Kong, up to $160 billion a year. 改善與中國關係一向是他的施政主軸，特別是在8年民進黨統治之後，民進黨一直傾向台灣獨立，與中國關係緊繃。馬英九可吹噓他和中國簽訂了21項協議(註一)。他提升了兩個快速融合經濟的數字：6年來，中國到台灣旅遊的旅客暴增10倍，在2013年時高達285萬人；兩岸直飛班機從一架都沒有，到每天有118個班次；雙方貿易額，包含對港，每年高達美金一千六百億元。 China’s strategy to reabsorb Taiwan is plain. As the island’s economy becomes more intertwined with that of the vast mainland, China thinks, resistance to unification will wane. Then Taiwan becomes an “autonomous” part of China—like Hong Kong, though allowed its own army. Taiwan will return to the motherland without resort to the missiles and increasingly powerful armed forces ranged against it. But as Mr Ma sees it, cross-strait “rapprochement” is a first line of defence against Chinese aggression, since “a unilateral move by the mainland to change the status quo by non-peaceful means would come at a dear price”. Politics in Taiwan is framed as a debate about independence or unification but is really about preserving the status quo. 中國統一台灣的策略很明顯。當台灣這座小島的經濟逐漸和廣闊的中國大陸密不可分，中國認為，抵抗統一的勢力會衰退。然後台灣就會變成中國「自治區」─如同香港，雖然允許擁有自己的軍隊。台灣在不用訴諸武力的情況就能回歸中國，不用使用那些對台逐漸增強的導彈佈署。但在馬總統看來，對抗中國侵略的第一線防禦，就是兩岸和解，因為「中國大陸單方面動武，來改變海峽兩岸現況，將會付出極大的代價。」台灣政治常被框架為獨統辯論，但事實上是如何維持兩岸現況。中國要用經濟來統一台灣是不爭的事實 The next step in rapprochement with China would be a meeting between political leaders. In February in Nanjing, once the capital of a KMT government of all China, ministers from China and Taiwan held their first formal meeting since 1949. Mr Ma hoped to meet China’s president, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this November, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit. To accommodate Hong Kong and Taiwan, APEC’s members are not “countries” but “economies”. So Mr Xi and Mr Ma could meet as “economic leaders”, sidestepping the tricky protocol that usually dogs relations, with China viewing Taiwan as a mere province. The Chinese demurred. But Mr Ma thinks a meeting somewhere is “not outside the realm of possibility”. 下一步和中國的和解，將是兩岸領導人的會面。 2月在南京，這個曾是國民黨中華民國首都的地方，台灣和中國的首長進行了自1949年以來首度的正式會談。馬英九希望在今年11月在北京的APEC高峰會，與領導人習近平會談。為了包含香港和台灣，APEC的成員不是「國家」，而是「經濟體」。如此一來，馬英九和習近平可以用「經濟體領袖」的名義會面，避開常面對的棘手問題，中國僅視台灣為中國的一省。中國拒絕了，然而馬英九認為這樣的會面可以說是「並非完全不可能」。(註二) This backdrop explains why a protest movement against a services-trade agreement with the mainland is more than a little local difficulty for Mr Ma. Students occupying parliament have resorted to undemocratic means, and many of the arguments they and the DPP make about the trade agreement are specious. But they have tapped a vein of popular mistrust of Mr Ma and of economic integration with the mainland. A split persists between native Taiwanese, on the island for generations, and mainlanders, like Mr Ma, whose families came over as the KMT lost the civil war in the 1940s. Protesters portray Mr Ma as either a mainland stooge or as clueless and out of touch. In the occupied parliament, student caricatures give him antlers, a reference to a slip he once made when he appeared to suggest that the deer-antlers used in Chinese medicine were in fact hair from the animal’s ears. 這樣的背景，解釋了為什麼反服貿的抗議運動，對馬英九來說不僅是國內的小紛爭。學生訴諸了非民主的方法佔據國會，他們和民進黨對於服貿的論述也很不切實際。但是他們碰觸到了對馬英九不信任的主流民意，這樣的敏感神經，以及對與中國大陸經濟依賴的疑慮。台灣人的分裂持續存在，分為本省人和外省人，像是馬英九的家庭就是在1940年代國共內戰戰敗後來台。抗議者將馬英九描述為中國的小跟班，或是無知而與民意脫節。在佔據的立法院裡，學生把馬英九畫上了鹿角，來諷刺他曾經失言，把用於中藥的鹿茸，解釋為鹿耳朵裡的毛。作者也有評論學生跟民進黨的訴求，不切實際 Mr Ma says public opinion supports a “Ma-Xi” summit. Joseph Wu of the DPP, however, claims such a meeting would actually damage the KMT in the next presidential election, due in 2016; rather, he says, Mr Ma is trying to leave a personal legacy. The DPP’s lead in the polls alarms not just the Chinese government but also America, which could do without another flare-up in a dangerous region. The stronger China grows, the more Taiwan’s security depends on commitments from America. It switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, but Congress then passed a law obliging it to help Taiwan defend itself. 馬英九說大眾民意支持「馬習會」。然而民進黨的吳釗燮宣稱這樣的會面實際上會傷害國民黨在下屆2016的總統大選，馬英九只是為了想要在歷史上留名。民進黨在民調上持續領先，不僅驚動中國，也驚動美國，深恐可能在這個危險的區域點燃火花。中國越強，台灣的安全就越仰賴美國的承諾。美國在1979年承認北京中國政權，但是國會通過法案承諾幫助台灣自我防禦。 All political lives end… 所有政治現況的終點.... Mr Ma says relations with America are better than they have ever been at least since 1979 and perhaps before. Others are doubtful. In all the talk of America’s “pivot” to Asia, its promises to Taiwan are rarely mentioned. Many in Taiwan paid attention when John Mearsheimer, an American academic, suggested in the National Interest, a policy journal, that there is “a reasonable chance American policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and to allow China to coerce it into accepting unification.” For some, abandonment is a fact of life and unification a matter of time. “No one is on our side strategically, diplomatically, politically; we have to count on China’s goodwill,” an academic in Taipei argues. 馬英九表示，與美關係是從1979年以來最好，甚至是史上最好。有些人懷疑這個說法。在美國對亞洲的「樞紐」對談中，很少提及美國的對台承諾。很多台灣人注意到一位美國學者 John Mearsheimer，在政策期刊國家利益(National Interest)的文章，「可以合理推論美國政策制定者認為的較好策略，會是最終做出拋棄台灣，默許中國脅迫其統一的決定。」對一些人來說，被美國背棄，甚至是統一都是時間早晚的問題。一位在台北的學者表示「沒有人站在我們這邊，不管是策略上、外交上、政治上，我們都必須仰賴中國的善意。」這段很可憐，就是美國隨時可能把我們一腳踹開而在胖虎中國的威嚇下我們沒有朋友可以幫我們(哭哭) Mr Ma has tried to steer what seems a sensible middle course between such defeatism and the adventurism of those in the DPP who would like to confront and challenge China. But he sounds weary with the effort, and Taiwan’s people seem weary of him. Their pragmatism and the DPP’s internecine strife may yet see them elect another KMT president in 2016. But if Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised, and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed. 馬英九試著走中間路線，在這樣的失敗主義與民進黨衝撞中國的冒險主義中取得平衡。但他的努力疲態漸露，台灣人民也對他表達厭倦。他們的實用主義以及民進黨的內鬥，可能導致2016年仍選出國民黨總統。但如果馬英九希望能夠在卸任前穩定兩岸關係，並留下和解兩岸的歷史定位，看來他是要失望了。結論就是馬英九一心只想留下歷史定位為了虛名他可以無視民意強行過關只讓我想到電影魔鬼代言人(The Devil's Advocate)中的名言「Vanity, Definitely My Favorite Sin.」註一：http://www.nownews.com/n/2014/03/04/1136320 註二：http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/china/2013/12/131225_taiwan_ma_xijinping.shtml -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.193.235.233 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/FuMouDiscuss/M.1396043202.A.B29.html ※ 編輯: up0003 來自: 123.193.235.233 (03/29 05:48) ※ 編輯: up0003 來自: 123.193.235.233 (03/29 06:02)

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