Re: [閒聊] 球探如何觀察是不是好打擊者？
※ 引述《kklljim (凱文)》之銘言：
: 投手最常看到的就拿測速槍，看看投球均速，還有球種，拿手球路，續航力等等，就可以
: 輕易判斷是否為好投手，曹王郭就拿到大簽約金。
: 可是打擊者實在很難在觀察吧？頂多看選球或是揮棒速度，而且跟對上的投手有關，如果
: 是雜魚聯盟，打擊者一直打安打，全壘打用打點刷數據，真的很難判斷。
: 不像在3A或者大聯盟可以直接用大數據或是成績來評定是否為好打者。
: 所以感覺上很少給打擊者大筆的簽約金，因為真的很難直接判斷是否為好打者吧？
對於投打守等各種面向
不同的球探在意的點也不同
BA對這個問題對不同球探做過訪
僅擷取打擊部分 原文中還有投球.防守...等
https://goo.gl/95JjbJ
Scouting Hitting
When you’re watching a hitter for the first time, what are the
things you like to see? What are you looking for?
“The first thing is bat speed—whether it’s wood or aluminum—
just, how fast can he swing the bat? That’d be the first thing
and hopefully we get it with wood and (are) able to determine
objectively what the bat speed is. And then his stance, his
approach and does he have a feel to hit? Does he have a good
knowledge of the strike zone? All those things are kind of
objective there and you just kind of look at the hitter. Sometimes
those guys will just walk up to the plate and they’ll walk up
there with confidence and look like they can hit. So, you just
kind of piece it all together.”
“A lot of what I’m looking for goes beyond what they’re doing
at the plate. You like to see the athleticism and the sort of body
that is going to continue to get better. Guys that physically are
what they are when they’re 16 years old, it’s difficult to
project that guy out significantly. It’s nice when a guy passes
the eye test right when he walks off the bus. If I’m seeing a
high school kid, I would hope that I can pick the kid out when I
walk up to the field and I don’t need to get a program to figure
out which kid he is. At the plate, generally I’m looking at the
mechanics of their swing and the bat speed that they have. You try
to get into pitch recognition and plate discipline and things
like that, but that really turns into one of the most difficult
things for high school hitters because they’re not seeing quality
breaking balls and they’re generally not seeing velocity.”
“The single biggest thing for me, and I write it down all the
time, is handsy looseness to the swing. In other words, just that
little whip in the bat with the hands instead of the strength. And
I know there are different types of guys with the strength swings
like (Jim) Thome and (Mark) McGwire, but those guys are different
types of birds. We don’t see those guys very often. And I think
those guys still have the handsy looseness, it just comes through
as strength because of their bodies. But that handsy looseness, I’
ve never seen a guy that didn’t have that pan out and become
big-time major league hitters. It’s just that point in the swing
where the top hand starts to move the bat. When the top hand
starts to bring the bat head through the zone, those hands right
there—how fast can they whip that bat? When a pitch is on the
way, only those special guys really have that little bit of whip
there to really get that bat head moving and get it in the right
spot to make sure you square up the ball.”
“It depends on when I’m watching him. So, if it’s pregame and
we’re just watching batting practice, pregame is nice—you can
learn some things about it, but it’s not everything. I don’t
want to get too excited and I don’t want to get too down, either.
In batting practice, I’m looking for bat speed, I’m looking at
the bat path, I’m looking at his balance, I’m looking at how his
hands work—do they work independently, or does he kind of swing
with his shoulders? I really like guys that have good hands. I’m
looking for a short path that has some pop. It also depends on the
position. If I know the guy plays a corner, I’m looking bat and
power. I want to see some thump and if you’re not thumping it,
you better steal a ton of bases—you better be (Carl) Crawford.
Once the game starts, I’m looking for a guy that can hit deep in
the count, that can hit in situations and that flat-out hits the
ball hard often. If you can’t make contact, what good are you?
That’s the biggest thing with hitters—hitters hit. They hit the
ball hard.”
“We watch how the ball comes off the bat. How much raw power does
the kid generate? Does he have some lift to his swing, does he
have some loft? If he has some loft to his swing, that tells you
with some raw power, he’s going to hit some homers. If he doesn’
t generate any loft, he’s going to be a doubles and singles kind
of guy. I watch for the way he holds the bat. If he holds the bat
back in his palms, then it’s going to be a little tougher to hit.
It’s going to create some tension in his swing and not so much
wristy action. It’s kind of a negative if they hold the bat
farther back in their palms.”
--
Some scouts like it more than others, but what are your thoughts
on watching players take batting practice?
“I like batting practice because I think your swing is basically
the same as it is in batting practice. Your ability to adjust
obviously comes into play when it’s game speed, but you can get a
good look at a player’s pure mechanics in BP. But I think a lot
of guys put too much into it. You walk out of there and the kid’s
missed two or three curveballs by a foot and gets jammed with an
87 mph fastball because he doesn’t have enough bat speed and a
guy’s walking out of there still talking about the batting
practice and I’m like, ‘Dude, did you see the three freaking
at-bats?’ It’s still about the game.”
“You see how a player approaches batting practice. Does he use
the whole field to hit? Usually in a batting practice round, the
batter will try and go the other way for the first round and then
the second round, he’ll hit the ball where it’s pitched and then
maybe the third round he’ll show his power to wherever that is,
right field or left field. And then the path of the bat—does he
hit a lot of fly balls? Does he hit a lot of ground balls? Is he a
line-drive hitter? Does he square it up hard? Obviously batting
practice pitchers don’t throw very hard and you like to see a guy
square a ball up pretty hard in BP consistently. A red flag would
be a lot of swing and misses in BP or a couple swing and misses
and fouling off the ball in the cage. That’s a good indicator of
hand-eye coordination. So, definitely how he approaches batting
practice and how hard does he square it up in batting practice.”
“I think it’s huge. For me, it’s huge. Because in the
ballgames, I would say 75 percent of the high school kids we go
watch are not getting pitched to. So, to be able to go see BP
ahead of time and multiple times, that’s huge for me. You can see
how the swing works and what type of raw power he has. A lot of
times, you like to go when they don’t know you’re there
watching. In my area, kids take BP before the game on the field
and I know a lot of places in the country, that doesn’t happen.”
--
How many times do you like to see a hitter before you’re
comfortable putting a grade on his tools?
“For me, of course over a couple of years with a college guy and
you hope to see him a couple of times per year. The most difficult
thing for me is when I go to see guys out of my area and I walk
in on those really good players—guys that I know are good—and
they don’t have a good day or something and you have to ask
yourself, ‘OK, what did I see in BP? What did I see in his swings
in the game, even though he didn’t hit anything?’ and then
throw a grade on him, that’s really tough. I guess the answer is
at least a half a dozen times before you feel comfortable. As many
as possible, basically.”
“Well, I like to see one batting practice to see his raw power,
see basically how far he can hit it. One batting practice I’m
pretty good with. The more times you can see a hitter, the better.
It depends on the game. If you go to a game and the guy gets
pitched to and he squares a ball up and pretty much shows you what
you think he’s got, one game would be sufficient to write him
up. But sometimes you might go to the game and he gets walked
twice, or maybe he has a poor at-bat on the breaking ball, he
waves at the breaking ball and he only gets three at-bats. Maybe
it’s a lefthanded hitter facing a lefthanded pitcher and the guy
struggles off the lefthanded pitchers, so you think he might be a
platoon guy and you have to come back and see him against a
righthanded pitcher.”
“Just once. I mean, you either get that fuzzy feeling, or you don
’t. If you get that fuzzy feeling, then it’s on to the games to
see how he takes pitches, how quiet he is at the plate—that’s
huge for me. You want to make sure his hands don’t go forward or
he doesn’t lunge when he’s taking pitches. If he’s quiet taking
pitches, then you know he’s going to be a pretty good
professional hitter. If you get that fuzzy feeling one time
around, you’ve got to write him up. Pretty much, you have to, in
order to start the process of getting your supervisors in to see
him. The longer you wait, the longer it takes your supervisor to
get in there because everybody else in the nation wants their guys
looked at too. It’s a long process to be able to get a kid seen
by the people who make decisions.”
“I’d really like to see the guy probably three or four games
with a couple of batting practice sessions in there. You try and
match those high school hitters up against someone that’s at
least going to pitch to them and potentially challenge them and
see them against some sort of level of competition that isn’t
just someone throwing 75. A lot of the process in getting
comfortable with these players is seeing them on the showcase
circuit the summer before, so you have that follow number on the
guy and you’ve had the opportunity to see them against some
competition and then you go back in the spring and figure out if
you got the guy right or you need to make an adjustment on him.
With the hitters, I’d like to get as many at-bats as possible. It
’s certainly easier with the college guys because the matchups
are significantly easier. The high school guys, you have to figure
out which ones you like and get in and see them.”
__
What are you looking for mechanically in a hitter’s swing? What
sorts of things are red flags for you?
“A lot of guys talk about a hitch not being correctable, but if a
hitch is a timing mechanism, I think it’s OK. If a hitch occurs
during the swing and causes the bat to be late, then I do think
you have a problem on that because that involves their hand-eye
coordination when the ball’s released and when they recognize it
and so forth. So, a hitch bothers me if it’s part of their swing
and not a timing mechanism but, you know, we’ve all seen a
million guys—the Eric Davises, the Bonds, all that—that hitch,
but it’s a timing mechanism and that bat’s in the right spot
when it needs to be. The arm bar doesn’t really bother me because
I think you can help that if you need to help it, but there’s a
lot of major league batters that arm bar but then get that bat
going out there good enough. I think you can learn to help a guy
develop not to do that. I don’t know if there’s any one thing
that I would say ‘Wow, that one can’t be fixed.’ Other than
just a slow bat. Slow bat’s a slow bat. If you don’t have bat
speed, I don’t think you’re going to develop it.”
“Maybe a kid—no matter what his stance is, whether it’s square
or it’s open—and he steps in the bucket, maybe he’s showing you
that he has a little fear of the ball and that kind of raises the
yellow flag there. Swinging at the breaking ball out of the
strike zone consistently, that may show you that he can’t
identify the pitch or can’t lay off the pitch and that’s tough
to correct, too.”
“I generally like to see guys with fairly calm approaches at the
plate. An excessive movement, be it a high leg kick or a hitch
with their hands or just anything that can alter the timing and
execution of the swing, I don’t like. That’s not to say there
aren’t guys that do those kind of things and are extremely
successful doing it, but I feel like those guys are the exception
and the fact is that when you slow them all down, when their foot’
s down and their hands are ready to go, they’re just about all in
the exact same position. It doesn’t matter if it’s Manny
Ramirez with the high leg kick or Gary Sheffield with the bat
waggling. You slow down the video and they’re in the same spot
when they’re ready to hit. Getting into that position
consistently is a lot harder if you’re moving around a bunch.
Another thing I really don’t like to see is head movement in a
swing. You can’t hit if you can’t see it. So, any sort of thing
where a player moves his head during a swing, it’s difficult for
that player to consistently center the ball against better
competition.”
--
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