Whatever Happened to Ichiro?
這是THT上的一篇文章
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whatever-happened-to-ichiro/
這篇是純用數據分析今年Ichiro打不好的原因
第一張圖我不予置評,AVG本身就不是一個穩定的數字
表一顯示Ichiro的G/F與AVG的相關係數高達0.88
(原因就只是Ichiro跑的快內安多,沒什麼特別的)
Year G/F AVG
2001 2.63 .350
2002 2.48 .321
2003 1.77 .312
2004 3.29 .372
2005 1.86 .299
表二的重點在2005的BAGB(滾地球的打擊率)
和去年相比幾乎掉了一成,推測的原因是對手會針對Ichiro作特殊的佈陣
這應該就是今年打擊率降低的主因
YEAR AB H 2B 3B HR AVG G/F BAGB
2001 692 242 34 8 8 .350 2.63 .351
2002 647 208 27 8 8 .321 2.48 .298
2003 679 212 29 8 13 .312 1.77 .306
2004 704 262 24 5 8 .372 3.29 .372
2005 556 164 15 10 15 .295 1.86 .274
為因應對手的佈陣,Ichiro今年增加了擊出飛球的比例
於是triple與HR都是career-high(ISOP預期也是),但還是比去年減產30分的進帳
回到原本的問題 what happened to Ichiro?
這篇的結論是:NOTHING 他今年這樣的成績是正常曲線,去年才是不正常
然後整篇的總評是:
Ichiro is still an above-average player, and a good leadoff hitter.
He just isn’t the MVP-caliber player he was last season or in 2001.
===================================================================
我對最後的總評沒意見,我也不會把MVP選票投給SLG不到0.5的外野手
不過我倒不太喜歡他對標題的回答,只以AVG來看一位選手是很有問題的
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討論串 (同標題文章)
以下文章回應了本文 (最舊先):
完整討論串 (本文為第 1 之 33 篇):