作者查詢 / drajan
作者 drajan 在 PTT [ joke ] 看板的留言(推文), 共41則
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132F噓: 歧視言論03/31 01:17
133F→: 番就是個歧視字眼沒錯03/31 01:17
206F推: 正港台灣人 嘴硬 嘴巴上絕對要逞強到底03/10 06:29
14F推: 這篇說的不就這影片要講的 http://bit.ly/1m6wgJK01/23 17:35
19F推: given the case in this post, 中獎機率是99%喔01/23 17:41
21F→: 最直覺的想法是原始選中車的機率是1% 然後在門開了98個之01/23 17:42
24F→: 後 只剩兩個門 你選的那道門機率還是1% 而另一道門就是99%01/23 17:43
26F→: 機率加總必為1 這樣想比較容易些01/23 17:43
27F→: 換完之後記得對主持人說 thanks for the extra 98%01/23 17:44
33F推: 100道門不夠 你可以用一萬道門下去看 再不夠再加01/23 17:50
35F→: 多到一個境界你就會開始有 「恩，我一開選的絕對不會中」01/23 17:51
36F→: 的感覺 你就會換了01/23 17:51
65F推: 這題用bayes rule就可以解了 可是並不是太好理解 重點在於01/23 18:04
66F→: 主持人「一定」會開至少一道門01/23 18:04
77F推: 如果主持人甚麼都不知道亂開 他會被炒魷魚 賭場是不允許01/23 18:19
78F→: 50%的獲勝機率的01/23 18:19
81F→: 而且開到車子就囧了哈哈哈01/23 18:20
121F推: 由推文可見 想教會一個不受教的學生有多困難01/23 18:43
363F推: 當初面試data scientist的時候一樣被丟monty hall問題01/23 19:50
365F→: 但是會給你變化一大堆的假設條件 要你用bayes rule去算出01/23 19:51
367F→: 換好還是不換好 換的話中獎機率提升多少 如果有兩台車的話01/23 19:51
368F→: 中獎機率又是多少然後要求你用最簡單的方式解釋monty hall01/23 19:52
370F推: 這個題目就是違反直覺 除非習慣用機率思考 不然很難想透01/23 19:54
371F→: 沒事做做頭腦體操是挺好的 但要保持一個謙虛的心 勇於認錯01/23 19:55
319F推: 目標族群就是年輕人 不來這裏推文假廣告要去哪裡08/02 12:40
14F推:Knowledge gained!12/05 21:48
75F推:好文 穿插一個無言的故事07/26 18:51
28F→:超像!07/26 12:01
195F推:文筆很好 厲害的神木06/24 08:23
370F推:XD exellent12/24 12:25
422F推:z───┐ ┌───┐01/08 23:39
423F→:│ 柯 │ │ 愛 │01/08 23:39
424F→:│ 四 │◢███◣│ 黑 │01/08 23:39
425F→:│ 海 │█ █│ 特 │01/08 23:39
426F→:└──\ ┘◥⊙ ⊙▋└ /──┘01/08 23:39
427F→: \ / ╮△╭ \ /01/08 23:39
428F→: ██ \__/ ██01/08 23:39
429F→: ██ ◣◢ ██01/08 23:39
430F→: █████▋██████01/08 23:39
308F推:XDD 學長一定要推爆阿12/02 12:34