[心得] 台北市長選戰..各行政區概況分析
郝佔優勢區:文山.大安.中正.信義.松山
蘇佔優勢區:大同.士林.
勢均力敵區:內湖.南港.中山.北投.萬華
1.文山:外省人比例最多的行政區(>40%).也是泛藍最強鐵票區.加上郝的外省籍身份
鐵票還是難以撼動..本次選舉.郝有機會以較大差距勝出
2.大安:外省人比例次多(約40%).該區居民亦不少具較高社經地位與公教人士.
過去幾次選舉藍也都佔絕對優勢.預期仍是郝輕鬆勝出..
3.中正:另一個有著較高比重外省居民的行政區.情況與大安區差不多...
該區居民亦有不少是公教人士..國營事業等.也算是藍鐵票區.郝勝出不是問題
4.信義:外省人比重沒前三區高.但也有35%(前三區都超過38%)..在外省四區裡
實力較弱.但蘇仍難以取勝.只能縮小落後差距..
5.松山:該區居民素質水平高..也有企業主.公教人士入住..只是與大安區相比
外省居民比重較低..過去幾次選舉則是藍較有贏面.最後應是郝會小勝
6.大同:傳統老社區.綠的票倉...蘇要贏不是問題..大贏也有機會...
7.士林:另一個綠的強區..雖然郝是士林人.但2006輸給謝長廷.本次蘇的實力更強
郝更難勝出...最後應是蘇勝..差距也有機會拉大
8.內湖:過去雖是藍較強..但本區中間游離票多...文湖線的問題.加上郝施政滿意度低
很可能使得中間票大量轉投蘇..由原本藍綠6:4縮成5:5..甚至可能被蘇奪下
9.南港:與內湖情況一樣..藍的優勢大減..被蘇拿走機會愈來愈高
10.中山:過去幾次藍綠五五波.1998年時扁曾經拿下過半選票.此次蘇勝出機會大
11.北投:該區綠的實力不弱.雖是五五波.但預估最後票數會是蘇較多
12:萬華:與中山.北投同..蘇會拿走
這12個行政區裡..郝佔絕對優勢的是大安.中正.信義.文山.松山有小優勢
蘇則是大同.士林有小優勢.中山.北投.萬華勝出機率不低.
內湖.南港兩區.會是決戰點..這兩區加總票數誰贏.很可能就是最後北市長的選舉結果
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