[新聞] 延後完工後遺症 新成屋超大賣壓來了
內文:
2017-04-19 09:55:12 經濟日報 記者游智文╱即時報導
今年降價潮會持續嗎?商仲業統計指出,前兩年市場不好,許多建案以拖待變,延後完工
時間,但「小雞終究得孵出來」,今年使照核發可能爆出16.6萬戶超大量,建商將滿手新
成屋,降價壓力比去年更大。
戴德梁行不動產估價事務所所長楊長達表示,房市不是今年下半年就有新一波降價潮,就
是2018年繼續降價衝量,而且降幅可能比2016年還大。
楊長達表示,2013至2015年是住宅建造執照核發戶數高峰期。根據內政部統計,這三年建
照核發都在10萬戶以上,2013年13.3萬戶,更是1996年以來最多,合計三年達36.3萬戶。
他說,建商領到建照,開工、完工,到拿到使用執照,大約二到三年,也就是2013年到
2015年的36萬多建照戶數,會在2015~2017年的三年間拿到使照,平均一年應有12萬多戶
。
但2015、2016年使照核發量都僅9萬多戶,合計19.7萬戶,按照工期推算,多達16.6萬戶
應在今年完工領取使照,如果全數領照,將是近20年來最大量。
楊長達分析,建照和使照量出現大幅落差,主要是這幾年房市買氣不好,建商擔心房子蓋
好,交屋困難、餘屋又賣不掉,還得負擔房屋稅,因此採取拖延工程、延緩完工策略,使
照量因此遠低於建照量。
他表示,但建案請了建照,終究會完工,成為新成屋。就像孵雞蛋,時間到了,小雞終究
會跑出來。如果集中在今年,將高達16.6萬戶,如果把壓力分散到今明兩年,加計2016年
建照量,今明兩年平均一年新成屋供給量也達12.3萬戶,仍是2008年以來新高,建商壓力
仍相當大。
連結:
https://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/2411973
其他:
1.是說建商成本很低,不太會有建商出問題的新聞出來,只是毛利會略降
2.台中還有好多重劃區還沒蓋,蓋下去,難賣,不蓋下去,建商營收從哪裡來?
3.台灣市容老舊,該有所改變了吧?
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