[心得] 2017影響台灣房市最大的變數-國際市場
台股與國際股市連動,台灣房市呢? 近年來也有同樣情況,
在全球化之下的房市已非過去純自住需求主導的封閉市場,
相反的,投資資金對房市的主導力與日俱增,
已成房價漲跌最主要的因素.
去年一整年全球房價平均漲幅為5%,美國漲7%,德國10%,
若干國家如葡萄牙甚至達到12%以上,亞太主要國家也是漲多跌少,
南韓日本乃至大陸都有一定漲幅,香港下半年房價強彈後也已持平,
台灣房價儘管去年是跌的,但從今年有案子出現近年少見的調升表價情況來看,
房價止穩回彈應是可以預期的結果.
今年的景氣肯定比去年好,房市買氣會增加,這是利多之一,
全球主要國家房價漲勢不見止歇,大咖資金開始回流卡位,
台灣房市補漲的力道必然增強,這是利多之二,
台灣房價修正一兩年後,對於兩岸三地市場來說cp值已不算低
(你去看香港的房價與房租就知道了,台北的情況跟它們比只能說小巫見大巫)
這是利多之三,總之,今年的房價應是低點不多,反而是小幅上漲的機率較大,
市場也可望逐步逆轉為中性甚至小幅度的賣方市場,不妨多注意後續發展演變.
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