To oldhand
There are three sealed and opaque boxes, each containing a ball.
These three balls are identical except that two balls are reds and one balls
are green. If you pick the box that containing a green ball,you will receive
$10,000 in reward. Suppose you picked one of the boxes at random,
and then one of the other boxes was opened which contains a red ball.
You are now offered an option to exchange the boxes
(between the sealed box you picked and the remaining sealed box)
Should you change your pick? (A detailed analysis is required.)
(92 成大工管甲.乙)
這就是我上次跟你說的很有名的統計題目,今年剛好成大有出,我就把他騰上來了
就是跟你上次說的:三人升遷問題類似
請問..你覺得應不應該換?
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