Re: Hollinger's Team Forecast: Utah Jazz

看板UTAH-JAZZ作者jeromeshih (以謹慎態度來面對問題)時間15年前 (2008/10/04 23:44)推噓11(11推 0噓 3→)

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※ 引述《CarlosBoozer (給我大懶熊)》之銘言： : 警告：本文過長，請先準備好點心飲料再往下看 : Hollinger's Team Forecast: Utah Jazz : By John Hollinger : ESPN.com : http://tinyurl.com/47rfhj 原文及其他各隊分析 : 2007-08 Recap : Call it a case of foul play. : Utah had the best point differential in the Western Conference last : season and was lights-out in the second half of the season. Heading : into the second round of the playoffs, they seemed to have a great : shot at upsetting the top-seeded Lakers and making a run to the : Finals. 爵士在去年西區季後賽擁有較為輕鬆的對戰組合,而且在後半季的戰績也非常搶眼. 在挺進第二輪後,爵士也被認為有機會讓頭號種子的湖人翻船並闖進決賽. : They might have pulled it off, too, if not for a pesky rule that : permits a player to shoot free throws if the other team fouls him. In : six games, L.A.'s Kobe Bryant took an unfathomable 96 free-throw : attempts; he made 80 of them. That, in a nutshell, was the series. : Utah scored more than enough points to win and did reasonably well in : other respects on defense, but the Lakers' parade to the free-throw : line killed any hope of an upset. 爵士原本是有機會如果不是那討厭的規則讓被犯規的球員需站上罰球線.在6場比賽裡讓對方頭號得分手罰了96球並得到80分.簡單來說,這就是整個系列賽的縮影. 爵士得到比贏球更多的分數而且在防守其他方面的表現也都非常合理,但因為湖人不斷站上罰球線也化解了翻盤的可能性. : The free-throw frenzy wasn't isolated to those six games. Bryant : didn't get 96 free throws because of some conspiracy to favor the : Lakers or a nefarious plot by David Stern to keep small-market teams : out of the Finals; it happened because Utah really, truly fouled him : on nearly every play, just like they did to most of their opponents : all season. 瘋狂罰球並未獨立於這六場比賽.這位得分手並不應該獲得96次的罰球機會,但因為某些陰謀或者總裁不可告人想法--讓小市場球隊無法打進季後賽.這種罰球情況會發生的原因是因為爵士在每次的進攻防守都使他困擾,這些與爵士今年困擾他們對手的情況如出一轍. : ┌────────────────┬─┐ : │ HOLLINGER'S '07-08 STATS │Ｘ│ (註：Pythagorean畢氏定理 : ├────────────────┴─┤ 流行於棒球界的一種藉由得失分來 : │W-L: 54-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 62-20) │ 推測勝率的公式，因為式子很像畢 : │Offensive Efficiency: 110.8 (2nd) │ 氏定理故命名之。這裡用的是對NBA : │Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (12th) │ 用的修正版) : │Pace Factor: 95.6 (11th) │ : │Highest PER: Carlos Boozer (21.96) │ 2007-08 推測勝率: : └──────────────────┘ http://tinyurl.com/3kjekk : That tendency has become a hugely important story, because in 2007-08 : the Jazz were a championship-caliber team in virtually every other : respect. The rampant fouling was really the only thing standing : between them and a conference title at the very least. 這種趨勢裡也有一些故事,因為在07-08球季,不論從任何一面來看,爵士應該是有實力競爭總冠軍的勁旅.但無法抑制的犯規是唯一阻止他們得到西區冠軍的原因. : ┌───────────────────┐ : │Opponent FTA Per FGA: 2007-08's Worst │ : ├───────────────────┤ : │TEAM OPP. FTA/FGA │ : │Utah .393 ←┐ │ : │Indiana .358 ←┘哇! │ : │New Jersey .353 │ : │Minnesota .350 │ : │Boston .341 │ : │League average .306 │ : └───────────────────┘ : And I do mean RAMPANT fouling. Jerry Sloan's teams have posted : ridiculously high foul numbers for most of the past two decades, and : last season the Jazz redoubled their efforts. Utah led the NBA in : both personal fouls and opponent free throw attempts, and did so by a : staggering margin. Jazz opponents took .393 free-throw attempts per : field-goal attempt last season (see chart); not only was that : terrible, but they're actually getting worse: Relative to the league : it was a .05 increase from their league-worst mark of a year earlier. 我會說過度犯規的原因是教皇的球隊在過去兩個球季的犯規次數都太驚人了,而且在上一季爵士的情況又更加嚴重.爵士在個人犯規以及讓對手罰球都以驚人的差距領先聯盟.上一季,爵士的對手在每次投籃都有0.393的機會能上罰球線;更糟的不僅於此, 爵士還使此情況加重,他們比前一年自己締造的成績又增加了0.05 : And it was hugely costly. Utah gave up 410 more points on free throws : than it would have by fouling at the league average rate, or exactly : five points a game -- an amount large enough to swing about 13 games : in a typical NBA season. Granted, opponents would have taken shots : from the field on most of those possessions and probably hit a solid : percentage (fouls tend to come when the defense is at a : disadvantage); but even if they'd made 55 percent of them Utah would : have saved itself two points a game. 而且這些犯規也帶來昂貴的代價,相對於聯盟平均水準,爵士在罰球線上多丟掉了410分, 或者更精確的說,每場多丟5分.這足以在一個正規NBA球季改變13場比賽的結果. 假定對手都能得到最多的出手次數而且擁有一定的命中率(當防守處於弱勢時,犯規被預期發生)但即使對手罰球命中率在55%爵士也能在一場比賽省下兩分. : Those two points a game are worth between five and six wins for a : typical NBA team, which for the Jazz last season was the difference : between being the top seed in the West and having to play on the road : every round. 一場兩分的差距對於一支球隊足以多出5到6場的勝利.這樣的差距也是爵士從西區頭號種子到不具備主場優勢的差距. : More generally, the major hole they dig themselves into with the : fouls makes it virtually impossible for the Jazz to have a : championship-caliber defense; the only reason they were even in the : hunt last season was because they led the league in offensive : efficiency over the second half of the season. That's been the case : for Utah ever since Sloan adopted the foul-on-every-play strategy : near the end of the Stockton-Malone era (their Finals teams fouled at : much less prodigious rates) -- the defense has been average at best : every season, because you can't be at the top of the league giving : away this many free points. 更一般來說,爵士為自己挖了一個坑使自己在現實中無法達到冠軍隊等級的防守, 讓爵士能保持競爭力的原因是源於他們在後半球季領先聯盟的進功效率. 在史馬時代末期,教皇就開始採用這種犯規在每次進攻的策略.(總冠軍的對手犯規則是在相當低的比例).這種防守頂多能達到聯盟的平均,因為在送出這麼多罰球分數的情況下無法達到聯盟的頂尖. : It's amazing that the personnel cost wasn't greater, too. Utah had a : unique approach to avoid foul trouble to its best players -- the : starters would play normal defense, and the bench guys would come in : and just hammer people. While each of the starting five had : reasonable foul rates, four Jazz reserves (Paul Millsap, Ronnie : Price, C.J. Miles and Jason Hart) had among the highest foul rates at : their positions, while Matt Harpring and Kyle Korver weren't far : behind. 讓人非常驚奇的是在個人犯規的影響並不是很大,爵士能使他們最好的球員避免陷入犯規的麻煩.先發球員採用正常的防守而板凳球員就會採用較為激烈的防守策略. 當先發五位球員都有合理犯規比率時,剩餘的四位球員(Millsap,Price,C.J及Hart)都在他們的位置擁有最高的犯規比率,而Harpring及Korver也相距不遠. : Korver, actually, is a great example of how this is clearly a : tactical decision for the Jazz. He averaged 3.0 and 3.1 fouls per 36 : minutes the two previous seasons as a member of the Sixers; in Utah : that ballooned to 4.2. Kover是一個很好的例子來說明爵士的戰略.他前兩球季在七六人時每36分鐘的犯規次數分別為3.0及3.1,在爵士則膨脹到4.2次. : The fouling at least had one positive: often the Jazz wrested the : ball away and the zebras let the contact go. Utah had the league's : third-best opponent turnover rate, forcing miscues on 16.7 percent of : opponent possessions. Combined with a strong performance on the : defensive boards, the Jazz were the toughest team in the league to : get a shot off against (see chart). Utah opponents fired only 94.1 : shots per 100 possessions, which was the main reason the Jazz were : able to finish 12th in defensive efficiency instead of, say, 30th. 犯規至少也有正向的結果,時常爵士使勁的奪取球權而裁判則允許身體接觸的發生. 爵士擁有聯盟第三使對手發生失誤的機率--在對手每次進攻皆有16.7%失誤比率. 這也強烈展現在防守籃板的表現,爵士也是聯盟讓對手錯失球中最堅強的球隊. 爵士對手在100次嘗試中僅有94.1賜有機會投出,這也是為什麼爵士能夠在防守效率的排名會在第12而非30. : ┌─────────────────────┐ : │Fewest Opp. Shots Per Possessions, 2007-08│ : ├─────────────────────┤ : │TEAM OPP. SHOTS* PER POSS. │ : │Utah 94.1 │ : │Boston 94.7 │ : │Philadelphia 95.2 │ : │Indiana 95.5 │ : │Chicago 95.7 │ : │League average 96.7 │ : ├─────────────────────┤ : │ * Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44) │ : └─────────────────────┘ : Speaking of Korver, it was Utah's midseason acquisition of him that : helped turned their season around after a slow start. The Jazz : started the year just 18-17, with Mehmet Okur in particular playing : horribly, before snapping out of their early funk and rolling to the : division title. That was around the same time Korver arrived -- after : trading Gordan Giricek and a first-round pick to Philadelphia to get : him, they went 38-16. 談到 Korver,慢熱的爵士後半球季也因他而獲益良多.在一開始未排除球隊的困擾在分區 (猜測應該是指沒有外線的支援)居於領先地位前Okur處於低潮,爵士的戰績為18勝17敗. 在進行與七六人隊交易以Giricek加第一輪選秀換來Korver之後的戰績為38勝16敗. before snapping out of their early funk 看不太懂,指的是括號說得嗎,還是不是? : His impact was more the threat of his shot than the reality of it -- : he only made 38.8 percent of his 3s for the Jazz. But on a team : devoid of his shooting, his presence loosened up packed-in defenses : -- especially when Okur was off the floor -- and allowed the other : guys to do their thing. Korver最大影響力就是他的投籃,但事實是他在爵士的三分投籃命中率僅有38.8%. 但在他出現後他在Okur休息時也能擴大對手的防守,這也讓其他隊友能完成自己的工作. : As I mentioned, Utah ranked first in offensive efficiency for the : second half of the season, and second for the year as a whole. They : were second in the NBA in field-goal percentage, 2-point shooting : percentage, true shooting percentage, and free-throw attempts per : field-goal attempt (Jerry's teams get it as good as they give it when : it comes to fouling). And although they still rarely took 3-pointers : -- they had the fourth-lowest rate of 3-point shots -- Korver led : them to a solid 37.2 percent. 就如同我所提到的,爵士在後半球季進攻效率排全聯盟第一,在整年度排第二.爵士在投籃命中率,兩分球命中率,真實投籃命中率(true shooting percentage?)以及每場罰球命中率(教皇的球隊做的就如同他們給對手的一樣好)都在聯盟排第二.爵士也很少投三分球,他們擁有第四低的三分球命中率,Korver讓命中率能達到37.2%. : Like I said, it was a championship-caliber offense. And hopefully : they'll stop hacking long enough to prove it. 就如同我所說得,這是一支冠軍球隊的進攻水準,而且希望爵士能能證明這個結果. : Biggest Strength: Interior scoring : This team is a layup machine, plain and simple. Williams is among the : best point guards in basketball and always delivers it to the right : spot, and starters Boozer, Kirilenko and Brewer are all outstanding : finishers around the basket. 最大的力量:得分本色這支球隊是上籃機器,樸素而且簡單.Williams是籃球中最好的控球後衛之一,他總是能在正確的時間將球送到手上,而Boozer,Kirilenko及Brewer也是出色的攻擊籃框的選擇. stop hacking long enough 的意思? : Additionally, Utah's offensive system is an unorthodox one by NBA : standards, relying heavily on off-ball screening and cutting to get : players open near the rim for short-range shots. It produces lots of : layups and free throws, especially for players like Brewer and : Harpring who excel at moving without the ball -- Williams will always : find them, and Kirilenko is a good passer too. 此外,爵士的進攻系統也是自外於NBA的標準,倚靠的是無球的掩護和斜切(cut?) 讓球員能夠找到更接近籃框的空檔.這也導致許多的上籃以及罰球,特別是專精於無球跑動的Brewer及Harpring.Williams每次都會找到他們,而KiriLenko也是個好的傳球者. : Off the bench, the Jazz don't lose a lot in this regard. I mentioned : Harpring above, but Millsap is also very effective around the basket, : and Price, the backup at point guard, is a good finisher when he gets : to the rim. With layups coming in waves, the Jazz don't need a whole : lot of shooting to be among the league's elite offenses. 在離開板凳後的爵士球員並未離開這樣的準則.我在上面提到Harpring,而Millsap則是在籃框的周圍表現非常有影響力.加上Price,這位替補的控衛,當接近籃框時,他會是一位好的終結者.藉由一波一波的上籃,爵士並不需要過多的投籃就能產出聯盟優秀的進攻. : Biggest Weakness: Interior defense : A big reason the Jazz sent opponents to the line so often was because : the backline bailed them out so rarely. The combo of Okur and Boozer : up front is brilliant offensively, but at the defensive end their : weaknesses are more easily exposed. Okur is indifferent at best as a : help defender and can't get off the floor to block shots at the rim, : while Boozer's explosive leaping at the offensive end doesn't seem to : translate into quality defense. 最大的弱點:場上防守爵士時常讓對手上罰球線一個很重要的原因就是因為最後防線很少能解決問題. 由Okur和Boozer組成的前場在進攻上很優秀但在防守的終端他們的疲弱很容易被暴露出來.Okur對於補防並不是很有興趣加上彈跳力也無法進行封阻.Boozer 在進攻方的活躍並未轉換為等效能的防守. : Off the bench it doesn't get too much better. Millsap is incredibly : active but incredibly foul-prone, while Jarron Collins is a spent : force whose offensive limitations prevent him from playing much. : Harpring, when used at power forward, is of limited utility as a help : defender and worthless as a shot-blocker. 板凳上球員所能提供的協助也不多,Millsap極為活躍但也很容易製造犯規.Collins 則是極為衰弱的力量,他在進攻端的限制也讓他無法得到太多上場時間. 當Harpring打到大前鋒的位置時,也因為自身的限制無法在補防幫助太多,至於封阻更是無能為力. : For those reasons, some wonder if the Jazz would be better served by : trading one of their bigs for a wing player and moving Kirilenko to : power forward. He was one of the league's leading shot-blockers from : that position until two years ago, and might be a highly effective : help-side flyswatter if returned to that role. With both frontcourt : starters potentially entering free agency after the season, it's food : for thought. 因為這些原因,有些人認為如果爵士能夠他們交易其中之一的長人換來一個有跳躍力的選手(wing player?)並把Kirilenko移到大前鋒會更好.他在兩年前是聯盟該位置封阻領先群的選手之一,而能夠成為一個高效率的火鍋手如果回到那位置的話.在接下來兩位選手下季即將進入自由球員市場,這值得好好考慮. : Outlook : OK, they foul on every play. The good news is that if they just cut : the foul rate a little bit, they can be good enough defensively to : allow the offense to win games for them. And we have reason to : suspect they can pull that feat off. Between Brewer's emergence as a : stopper on the wings, a likely reduction in playing time for : high-foul players like Harpring and Collins, and, more hopefully, : some recognition by Sloan that this state of affairs must change, it : seems plausible for the Jazz to improve here. 展望: 好吧,既然爵士在每次都想犯規.好消息是如果爵士能減少一點點的犯規比率,他們的防守就足以藉由進攻來贏得比賽.而我們也有理由爵士能擺脫這項事蹟.在Brewer 出現在兩翼後,可預見較易犯規的Harpring及Collins的上場時間會減少.而且由教皇所確認的這種打球方式或許也必須改變,看起來在這部分有機會改變. : If so, it's hard to argue with them in the West, because they've got : everything else. The Jazz have go-to stars in both the backcourt and : the frontcourt, have multiple scoring weapons surrounding them, and : have arguably the deepest team in the conference. That last point is : important, because this team is tailor-made for the regular-season : grind --it can easily survive minor injuries and slumps and has no : player who is too indispensable. 如果真的如此的話,在西區的爵士就很難挑出缺點,因為已經萬事具備了. 爵士將準備在後場以及前場發光,他們擁有多樣的得分武器且可算是這區(Conference?) 最有深度的球隊.最後一點也是重要的,因為這支球隊是專為季賽打造的,可以容易度過小小的傷害及低潮而且沒有太不可或缺的球員. D.W.:我是爵士的國寶呢(ㄋㄟ)(請用台語) : Additionally, they're still on the upswing. Williams is 24, Boozer is : 26, and every key player except Harpring is in his 20s. Okur and : Korver are both likely to have better years than a season ago, but : nobody except perhaps Harpring projects to sharply regress. 除此之外,爵士仍在成長階段,Williams 24歲,Boozer 26歲,加上每一個球員除了 Harpring都是在20多歲的階段(20s?).Okur及Korver被認為至少還可打一季以上的好球, 除了Harpring可能會有大幅的衰退外. : Add it all up and the Jazz, perhaps a bit surprisingly, came out with : the top record in the West when I projected each team's outcome -- : beating out the Lakers by a single game. L.A. has the higher ceiling, : and arguably so does Houston, but the Jazz have a far better : likelihood of getting close to their roof. 當東風出現後,爵士的表現會讓人驚豔,獲得西區最好的戰績.當我就由打敗湖人一場比賽預測每隊表現時,湖人及火箭擁有較高的限度,但爵士則有更高的可能性達到他們的頂峰. : Taking things a step further, picking the Jazz to have home-court : advantage by virtue of the best record in the West means one almost : has to pick them to win the conference, too -- between the altitude : and the crowd's impact on the zebras, this team is nigh unbeatable at : home. It's a crowded race and they're one of three teams I see as : having roughly equal odds of making it out, but if I have to pick a : horse out West, this is the one. : Prediction: 58-24, 1st in Northwest Division, 1st in Western : Conference 將眼光放遠些(taking things a step further?),如果爵士能擁有主場優勢,在目前西區最好的主場戰績也表示他們能贏得西區決賽.藉由高海拔以及觀眾對於裁判的影響這支球隊在家裏可說近乎無敵. 獲取王座路上佈滿競爭者,爵士是我認為的三支能突圍而出的球隊之一但如果我要從西區選擇脫穎而出者(horse?),我會選擇爵士. 預測:58勝24敗,西北組第一,西區第一. -- 如果有錯請大家不吝指點,謝謝 -- -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.195.53.56 ※ 編輯: jeromeshih 來自: 123.195.53.56 (10/05 00:11)

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