[討論] 92W GW/TCFA

看板TY_Research作者 (卡卡達達)時間3月前 (2025/08/18 09:44), 3月前編輯推噓64(64推 0噓 39→)
留言103則, 46人參與, 3月前最新討論串1/1
WTPQ50 RJTD 180000 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 22.2N 126.4E FAIR MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT https://i.meee.com.tw/JUuuieF.png
-- ABPW10 PGTW 171430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZAUG2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT- CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AND AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5- 10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. ... (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN https://i.meee.com.tw/VF6c07R.gif
-- 模式對路徑反應滿兩極的 https://i.meee.com.tw/TJ8bQBQ.png
https://i.meee.com.tw/XnGlzek.png
-- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.127.163.9 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1755481442.A.FDA.html ※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 09:53:22
推
08/18 10:00, 3月前 , 1F
中央氣象署也把這個認定為熱帶性低氣壓了
08/18 10:00, 1F
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08/18 10:02, 3月前 , 2F
21號要飛北海道欸… 會不會停飛阿！
08/18 10:02, 2F
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08/18 10:06, 3月前 , 3F
92W比較影響到九州四國等西日本地區，北海道如要受
08/18 10:06, 3F
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08/18 10:06, 3月前 , 4F
天氣影響也不是這個系統。
08/18 10:06, 4F
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08/18 10:07, 3月前 , 5F
原來如此 謝謝解析
08/18 10:07, 5F
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08/18 10:12, 3月前 , 6F
和之前數值預報差很多 連偏過來都沒有 直直去
08/18 10:12, 6F
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08/18 11:20, 3月前 , 7F
20日要去九州一週，擔心
08/18 11:20, 7F
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08/18 11:43, 3月前 , 8F
我不專業看windy好像週三菲律賓東方有個熱低壓生成
08/18 11:43, 8F
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08/18 11:43, 3月前 , 9F
那個應該影響台灣比較多
08/18 11:43, 9F
熱帶低壓≠熱低壓 #1eJhbg63 (TY_Research) ※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 11:47:44
推
08/18 11:48, 3月前 , 10F
感謝指正
08/18 11:48, 10F
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08/18 12:09, 3月前 , 11F
菲東海域會出現的應該是90w 目前還在關島那邊
08/18 12:09, 11F
推
08/18 12:45, 3月前 , 12F
這個預報不強，會不會停飛自己去問航司
08/18 12:45, 12F
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08/18 12:54, 3月前 , 13F
又在報行程（白眼
08/18 12:54, 13F
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08/18 16:07, 3月前 , 14F
九州那個建議改行程吧
08/18 16:07, 14F
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08/18 16:39, 3月前 , 15F
90W除了遠還要看高壓臉色
08/18 16:39, 15F
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08/18 16:50, 3月前 , 16F
等AI開示
08/18 16:50, 16F
推
08/18 17:57, 3月前 , 17F
新手借版面發問，高雄下午這波大雨是典型的午後雷
08/18 17:57, 17F
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08/18 17:57, 3月前 , 18F
陣雨？
08/18 17:57, 18F
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08/18 18:04, 3月前 , 19F
是的喔
08/18 18:04, 19F
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08/18 18:43, 3月前 , 20F
感謝大大，所以明天是否也會下，現在還不得而知？
08/18 18:43, 20F
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08/18 18:50, 3月前 , 21F
定量降水預報明天高雄看來也會下蠻大，但這個難講
08/18 18:50, 21F
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08/18 19:07, 3月前 , 22F
感覺走得很慢.......
08/18 19:07, 22F
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08/18 19:10, 3月前 , 23F
感謝V大
08/18 19:10, 23F
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08/18 21:09, 3月前 , 24F
近幾個小時似乎沒怎麼動
08/18 21:09, 24F
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08/18 21:19, 3月前 , 25F
乾掉了
08/18 21:19, 25F
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08/18 21:40, 3月前 , 26F
會消掉嗎
08/18 21:40, 26F
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08/18 22:52, 3月前 , 27F
等8月底9月初那波好了
08/18 22:52, 27F
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08/18 23:01, 3月前 , 28F
AI反而對高空冷心低壓反應比較大
08/18 23:01, 28F
推
08/18 23:16, 3月前 , 29F
都已經八月中下旬連一個C4都搓不出來，這樣算異常
08/18 23:16, 29F
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08/18 23:16, 3月前 , 30F
嗎？
08/18 23:16, 30F
推
08/18 23:20, 3月前 , 31F
北大Erin 海放西太
08/18 23:20, 31F
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08/18 23:24, 3月前 , 32F
6月那時氣象署的颱風展望好像說今年因為是反聖嬰年
08/18 23:24, 32F
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08/18 23:24, 3月前 , 33F
，西太的颱風強度偏弱吧！
08/18 23:24, 33F
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08/18 23:28, 3月前 , 34F
西太持續躺分中
08/18 23:28, 34F
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08/18 23:36, 3月前 , 35F
咦所以今年各幾顆啦
08/18 23:36, 35F
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08/18 23:42, 3月前 , 36F
今年算中性年
08/18 23:42, 36F
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08/18 23:44, 3月前 , 37F
niño4還沒到負距平0.5以下
08/18 23:44, 37F
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08/18 23:45, 3月前 , 38F
喔喔～
08/18 23:45, 38F
還有 25 則推文
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08/19 13:57, 3月前 , 64F
王到現在居然是低級C3丹娜斯
08/19 13:57, 64F
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08/19 14:20, 3月前 , 65F
2顆？ 北部表示？？？
08/19 14:20, 65F
推
08/19 14:40, 3月前 , 66F
一般不都知道颱風季到9月都還是嗎？！甚至10月都還
08/19 14:40, 66F
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08/19 14:40, 3月前 , 67F
有機會會有颱風來啊！
08/19 14:40, 67F
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08/19 14:44, 3月前 , 68F
近幾年來都是秋颱品質優於夏颱很多
08/19 14:44, 68F
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08/19 14:45, 3月前 , 69F
9月之後才是頂級大物出沒的季節
08/19 14:45, 69F
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08/19 19:11, 3月前 , 70F
今年目前強度最強的兩個都登陸台灣
08/19 19:11, 70F
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08/19 19:35, 3月前 , 71F
要可看性的要秋颱
08/19 19:35, 71F
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08/19 20:09, 3月前 , 72F
去年三頭鵝九月底來 康芮還萬聖節來
08/19 20:09, 72F
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08/19 22:48, 3月前 , 73F
主要還是因為高空環境不佳吧
08/19 22:48, 73F
推
08/19 22:50, 3月前 , 74F
92W現在應該是幅散最好的時機，但太乾發展不起來。
08/19 22:50, 74F
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08/19 22:51, 3月前 , 75F
對東部來說每年都有大物，而南部久違碰一次就爛了
08/19 22:51, 75F
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08/19 22:52, 3月前 , 76F
去年中南部也是久違感受到颱風威力，不然約2015年
08/19 22:52, 76F
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08/19 22:53, 3月前 , 77F
還16年結束風季以後，很長時間沒受到多大的颱風侵襲
08/19 22:53, 77F
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08/19 22:53, 3月前 , 78F
至於8月底的，就要注意現在150E、5N一帶的東風波了
08/19 22:53, 78F
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08/19 22:54, 3月前 , 79F
，適逢西風槽開始南下，如果這時有系統發展就容易北
08/19 22:54, 79F
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08/19 22:54, 3月前 , 80F
上，但如果在菲東北上就可能受襲。
08/19 22:54, 80F
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08/19 22:58, 3月前 , 81F
只是時間還遠，且AI目前普遍還沒開始反應，路徑也偏
08/19 22:58, 81F
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08/19 22:58, 3月前 , 82F
南，但8月底開始有西風槽南下，會加大預報難度。
08/19 22:58, 82F
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08/19 23:18, 3月前 , 83F
這顆是不是沒了
08/19 23:18, 83F
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08/20 00:47, 3月前 , 84F
秋颱長得比較漂亮
08/20 00:47, 84F
推
08/20 03:29, 3月前 , 85F
是說erin卡住都動不了
08/20 03:29, 85F
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08/20 07:08, 3月前 , 86F
現在菲東這顆很有要形成颱風的架勢欸～～！
08/20 07:08, 86F
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08/20 07:08, 3月前 , 87F
08/20 07:08, 87F
推
08/20 08:30, 3月前 , 88F
菲東應該是90w 好像會很肥
08/20 08:30, 88F
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08/20 09:18, 3月前 , 89F
90w現在各大模式都是看好到南海才發展
08/20 09:18, 89F
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08/20 11:38, 3月前 , 90F
八月底的確要注意 如果有颱風對台灣影響可能不小。
08/20 11:38, 90F
推
08/20 11:40, 3月前 , 91F
高壓剛好不弱讓颱風有機會來。風季近年有稍微延長
08/20 11:40, 91F
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08/20 11:40, 3月前 , 92F
到十月的趨勢 但還要在觀察是否是常態
08/20 11:40, 92F
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08/20 11:41, 3月前 , 93F
畢竟延長賽不是年年有xd
08/20 11:41, 93F
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08/20 11:42, 3月前 , 94F
不過10月份登陸台灣的颱風在2000年後是有變多就是了
08/20 11:42, 94F
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08/20 12:02, 3月前 , 95F
有時候就是剛好而已 畢竟之前也有連續幾年沒颱風登
08/20 12:02, 95F
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08/20 12:04, 3月前 , 96F
也有一段時間一直登宜花的
08/20 12:04, 96F
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08/20 12:55, 3月前 , 97F
今天台灣上空有個冷心低壓
08/20 12:55, 97F
推
08/20 13:21, 3月前 , 98F
冷心低壓
08/20 13:21, 98F
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08/20 13:23, 3月前 , 99F
等看下午雷陣雨強度
08/20 13:23, 99F
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08/20 13:34, 3月前 , 100F
08/20 13:34, 100F
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08/20 13:52, 3月前 , 101F
今天午後對流看起來真兇猛
08/20 13:52, 101F
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08/20 13:56, 3月前 , 102F
台大附近開始大雷雨啦
08/20 13:56, 102F
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08/21 07:56, 3月前 , 103F
南部的人已經過得很不開心啦
08/21 07:56, 103F
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