[情報] 90W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者usaul56 (凱哥)時間7年前 (2018/06/28 17:15)推噓18(18推 0噓 3→)

留言21則, 12人參與討論串10/11 (看更多)

HE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 280546Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE IMPROVED SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS OKINAWA, WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW 90W BECOMING A TD WITHIN 24HRS, WITH THE ECMWF AND JGSM FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. https://imgur.com/a/2D6WQAS 原本各模式都不看好會發展的系統現在看來有機會在接近那霸的時候增強為輕度颱風也將是今年第一個可能侵襲韓國的熱帶系統臺灣受他引進的西南風影響未來一個禮拜就不會那麼熱了，還會下一點午後雷雨 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.211.33.221 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1530177310.A.DBA.html ※ 編輯: usaul56 (218.211.33.221), 06/28/2018 17:18:26

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aegis43210

06/28 17:21, 7年前 , 1^F

06/28 17:21, 1^F

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WuCH1022

06/28 17:35, 7年前 , 2^F

06/28 17:35, 2^F

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youngscott

06/28 17:49, 7年前 , 3^F

06/28 17:49, 3^F