天氣小觀:等待海岸線的變化大雨就要下
天氣小觀:等待海岸線的變化大雨就要下
西南風即將開始觸及台灣,
模式預報,明天起隨著西南風的水氣源源不絕,
首當其衝的南台灣陣雨感受可能會更明顯。
後天起,隨著中緯度系統南下,太平洋高壓東退,
一舉引爆南海西南季風爆發,遇上北方南下的冷空氣,
預報出現今年梅雨鋒面的最強降雨。
鋒面的北側是由東北亞高空冷渦旋在日本一帶誘發溫帶氣旋,
地面高壓從東北亞帶來的東北風,儘管已經強弩之末,
但是殘存冷空氣的兵力仍足以讓北台灣出現大雨,
模式預報,梅雨鋒面初壓境時,東北風尚且不弱,
對上西南季風在台灣東北部外海出現氣旋,伴隨台灣北部猛烈降雨。
鋒面的南側更是夏季系統的高潮,強勁的西南季風一連串的在南台灣大量降雨,
700帕高空場可見南海一南一北出現的低空西南風噴流,說明了一南一北強降雨。
尤其預報西南季風的水氣讓南臺灣雨不停國。
不過未來一周尾聲,出現了一個新的變數,
這個變數可能讓梅雨鋒面暫時畫下句點,同時也削減西南季風的強度。
不意外,
在南海到西太平洋,能夠呼風喚雨的最強大氣系統,就是太平洋高壓,
模式預報,一周尾聲,太平洋高壓有重新西伸的趨勢,
同時太平洋高壓也北抬了,更遠的模式預報將會籠罩台灣。
太平洋高壓時代是否提早來臨,仍有待觀察,
但是在一陣強烈大降雨過後,預報一周過後,梅雨可望先緩和。
以上供參,持續觀察囉。
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※ 編輯: daron (123.192.194.253), 05/31/2017 21:45:19
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