Re: [情報] 恭喜莫蘭蒂勇奪2016西太風王

看板TY_Research作者pttmaster (批踢踢大濕)時間7年前 (2016/09/13 00:23)推噓16(16推 0噓 18→)

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這份巔峰強度的老J報文可以留著紀念 0912 1500Z / 155KT 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION SINCE 120600Z, WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL- DEFINED EYE BECOMING EVEN MORE SYMMETRIC. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THERMOMETRIC ESTIMATES OF OVER 18C IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE. 從120600Z開始快速增強雲頂溫度持續下降，眼牆週圍深對流更為對稱眼溫顯著上升，估計為18度 A 121247Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. CONVECTIVE SYMMETRY AND BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS OF THIS WRITING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD HAVE RISEN TO T7.5. GIVEN THE ABOVE ANALYSIS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS. 微波頻道看到多重深對流螺旋帶圍繞清晰的颱風眼寫這篇的同時，對流雲帶對稱正在更為完整 Dvorak分析都達到T7.5，因此給定155kt STY 16W IS CURRENTLY IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON, WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO 31C). CURRENT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A 120928 WINDSAT PASS. STY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 非常良好的環境(在每個象限都極佳的外流、非常低的垂直風切、30~31度的高海溫)，支持颱風維持超級颱風的強度。現在的風圈已經過衛星掃描校正過。 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW SETTLED ON A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD SOUTHERN TAIWAN OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LUZON STRAIT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE EGRR, JGSM, AND JENS TRACKERS, WHICH INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION, GIVEN THE RECENT MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 36, TRACK SHIFTS DUE TO VORTEX INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN ARE POSSIBLE, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THESE TRACK SHIFTS. STY 16W IS LIKELY APPROACHING IS THERMODYNAMIC MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY, SO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS SSTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL AND LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN COMMENCES. 大致上颱風將往西北西(北巴士海峽至台灣南端)，但JTWC傾向較為偏北，原因為最近颱風較偏向西北方行進。 36小時候颱風將與台灣地形互動，路徑飄移也是可能的。颱風大概已經接近熱、動力上的巔峰強度，未來24小時可能有強度上的調整，例如眼牆置換。 C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STY 16W WILL CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA BY AROUND TAU 60. WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, WITH A POLEWARD TURN DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME.// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.227.43.83 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1473697433.A.A7C.html

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TiggerLin

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puretd

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