97W,中秋節假期好壞的關鍵?
前幾天已經出現,位於關島東南方的熱帶擾動97W,
經過這兩三天的醞釀,強度發展仍然緩慢,環流中心始終呈現外露的狀態,
強對流雲團集中在環流西側爆發,而且大部分位於環流中心200~300公里以外的地方,
對流潛熱釋放對於中心增暖的效率偏低,
雖然周末期間已經被提升為熱帶性低氣壓,
中心氣壓的下降卻也遇到瓶頸,無法持續降壓而進一步增強。
會有這樣的狀況可能是高空東風偏強所造成的垂直風切所引起,
強對流都在垂直風切的下風處(西側下游)爆發,
低層環流為了跟上,也隨著不斷往比較偏西的方向調整,
過去這兩三天已經從關島東南方遠海一路調整到了關島附近。
目前來看,高層的東風已經有逐漸減弱的趨勢,
這應該有利於97W的垂直結構整合發展,JTWC凌晨發出了熱帶氣旋形成警報(TCFA),
預估未來24~48小時內應該有機會成為今年第21號颱風杜鵑,
而它未來的動態預期也將是這個周末中秋節假期天氣好壞的關鍵因素。
依照現在的模式預報資料,大致都認為97W成為颱風後會以拋物線路徑北轉,
經過琉球以東海面後轉向日本以南海域,雖然看起來直接影響台灣的機會不大,
但仍有需要密切觀察的變數存在,
包括在周末期間北邊可能迫使高壓減弱東退的短波槽強度是否足夠,
以及颱風形成初期偏西移動的速度跟距離等等,
都可能會影響到最後颱風轉向點距離台灣的遠近,
當然距離越近,影響的程度也就會比較大,
加上離台灣比較靠近的時間點很可能正好落在周末期間(25~27日間),
因此中秋節天氣的好或壞跟這個系統未來的變化將有很大的關聯性,
接下來的各種變動都值得密切注意與關心。
以上簡單供參考~
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