明晚寒流報到!?~2015/01/20
從今天上午的500百帕天氣圖來看,大陸上有南北兩支短波槽逐漸要重合的現象,
其中北邊這個短波槽因為溫度槽略為落後於高度槽的關係,斜壓性大,
往東南移動的過程中仍有加深的機會,跟南支槽重合後,
應該會變成一個南北走向,而且比較深厚的槽線,
型式上似乎有利於冷空氣有較大幅度的南下。
http://ppt.cc/WKSB
不過由ECMWF的850百帕溫度場預報資料來看,
1500公尺高度0度等溫線大概只南伸到北部海面,
溫度線往南延伸的幅度預報似乎並不算大,
http://ppt.cc/pPFh
http://ppt.cc/rUPE
http://ppt.cc/7Y3o
底層的風速則是蠻強的,受到日本附近溫帶氣旋急速加強擴大的帶動,
相當強的西北風可能從大陸上直接吹向台灣附近,
因此有可能低層(低於1500公尺)的冷空氣往南推送的幅度會更大一點,
不排除低層的降溫情況會更強。
但是這波冷空氣偏乾,明天白天鋒面迅速掠過後,天空雲量應該會大幅減少,
因此輻射冷卻效應能否發揮也是溫度低點會降到多低的關鍵,
總和來看,預估22日清晨跟23日清晨應該都有機會出現較為明顯的輻射冷卻,
搭配冷空氣本身的降溫,各地空曠地區有可能出現10度以下的低溫,
最低甚至會下探8度上下,23日清晨因為風速會減小,
輻射冷卻條件可能又比22日清晨更好,因此要特別提醒大家要注意清晨低溫的情況,
甚至到24日清晨都還有可能出現局部性的輻冷低溫現象,
日夜溫差預估會相當大,早出晚歸的朋友尤其要留意身體健康。
簡單供參考囉~
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