[颱風] JTWC 00Z預測哈格比顛峰將追平Haiyan！

看板TY_Research作者 (皮丘使用飛天！)時間11年前 (2014/12/04 05:57), 11年前編輯推噓65(65推 0噓 45→)
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今天是南瑪都登陸枋寮十週年， 十年前的南瑪都顛峰也達到STY， 十年後的12月，哈格比不僅成為STY， JTWC再度給出理智斷線的預測啦！ WTPN31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 133.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 　 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 133.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 11.0N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 11.5N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 11.7N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 11.8N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.7N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.1N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 14.7N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 133.3E. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// NNNN 哈格比目前正快速清空中，對流-84.1度已經是海燕等級！ 老J這次的預測可能不會放羊。 如果清空至和黃蜂一樣的眼溫， 就不是成為今年風王這麼簡單了， 難道會這麼快就出現跟燕王平起平坐的颱風嗎？ 而且老J竟然預測顛峰會持續36小時... http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=HAGUPIT 另外哈格比目前路徑仍有變數 老J認為會直撲馬尼拉 NMC認為會重覆去年海燕路徑 其他三家則是比NMC偏南，不過這種路徑恐怕是同時影響海燕跟寶發的災區， 不論如何，菲菲這次都要提高警覺啊... --
推
11/08 00:04,
海燕CDO不小.對流極強.水氣紅一圈.梅姬無法比...
11/08 00:04
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11/08 00:05,
保守一點持平. 但整個型態包含CDO.海燕是頂級的那種
11/08 00:05
推
11/08 00:40,
燕窩
11/08 00:40
推
11/08 00:41,
非常好
11/08 00:41
-- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 163.25.94.59 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1417643840.A.36C.html ※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.94.59), 12/04/2014 06:07:48
推
12/04 06:53, , 1F
哇……又是一個甜甜圈等級的巨物
12/04 06:53, 1F
推
12/04 06:58, , 2F
真是amazing的一年
12/04 06:58, 2F
推
12/04 08:53, , 3F
直升155KTS
12/04 08:53, 3F
推
12/04 09:13, , 4F
JMA <05日09時の予報> 中心気圧 905hPa 菲律賓 哀
12/04 09:13, 4F
推
12/04 09:22, , 5F
海燕：老娘是世界第一
12/04 09:22, 5F
難說啊...老J史上第一次上望170kts並持續36小時耶...
推
12/04 09:25, , 6F
竟然可能出12月的風王耶!!
12/04 09:25, 6F
推
12/04 09:36, , 7F
12月風王這不是第一次了 2001 法西也是
12/04 09:36, 7F
推
12/04 10:05, , 8F
白環藍眼連續兩個追風八年頭一次遇
12/04 10:05, 8F
推
12/04 10:14, , 9F
12/04 10:14, 9F
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12/04 10:14, , 10F
Typhoon HAGUPIT (2008/18W)
12/04 10:14, 10F
推
12/04 10:34, , 11F
CWB給915百帕，實在讓人眼鏡都掉了…
12/04 10:34, 11F
推
12/04 11:05, , 12F
暴力的PCT
12/04 11:05, 12F
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12/04 11:05, , 13F
最新上望160kts
12/04 11:05, 13F
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12/04 11:06, , 14F
12月強颱出過不少..其中97Paka 89Jack 01法西較好
12/04 11:06, 14F
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12/04 11:08, , 15F
單年3個155kts 也是衛星雲圖時代以來.僅次1997年
12/04 11:08, 15F
現在是上望170kts，並持續36小時... ※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.94.59), 12/04/2014 11:16:44
推
12/04 11:17, , 16F
這底層實在太漂亮了，這預測很合理
12/04 11:17, 16F
推
12/04 11:21, , 17F
高潮迭起！！！
12/04 11:21, 17F
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12/04 11:55, , 18F
外型跟所在位置 看起來真有點像海燕
12/04 11:55, 18F
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12/04 11:57, , 19F
聽說有機會北轉，不好吧
12/04 11:57, 19F
推
12/04 12:02, , 20F
CDO極品..
12/04 12:02, 20F
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12/04 12:02, , 21F
風眼比海燕小
12/04 12:02, 21F
※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.94.59), 12/04/2014 12:14:09
推
12/04 12:14, , 22F
北轉 會被強烈風切和冷空氣破壞殆盡。
12/04 12:14, 22F
推
12/04 12:27, , 23F
今年第三個挑戰海燕的颱風 而且最有機會
12/04 12:27, 23F
推
12/04 12:40, , 24F
金早一看到雲圖的反應是:蛤
12/04 12:40, 24F
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12/04 12:40, , 25F
今
12/04 12:40, 25F
推
12/04 12:57, , 26F
風王應該要易主了 這隻貌似還在加強
12/04 12:57, 26F
推
12/04 13:11, , 27F
這次又是呂宋和民答那峨中間的薩瑪島
12/04 13:11, 27F
推
12/04 14:53, , 28F
冬天颱風愈來感強怎麼了
12/04 14:53, 28F
推
12/04 14:56, , 29F
挖操 天佑台灣
12/04 14:56, 29F
推
12/04 15:34, , 30F
準備挑戰170kts,天佑菲律賓@@
12/04 15:34, 30F
JMA 06Z 115kts 上望120kts，CWB 58/73 均為905hpa ※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.94.59), 12/04/2014 15:50:28
還有 40 則推文
還有 7 段內文
推
12/05 06:26, , 71F
樓上 強台之間的結構分析是要看最中心的眼還有其外
12/05 06:26, 71F
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12/05 06:26, , 72F
眼牆 指標是眼的溫度 和眼牆的溫度
12/05 06:26, 72F
推
12/05 06:27, , 73F
其實置換似乎完成，但高層眼要開必須看風切臉色
12/05 06:27, 73F
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12/05 06:29, , 74F
目前看來不樂觀，且可見光型態很差
12/05 06:29, 74F
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12/05 06:29, , 75F
CDG 指的就是溫度最低的那種 如果圍成一圈代表這颱
12/05 06:29, 75F
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12/05 06:30, , 76F
風的眼牆很暴力 ...眼溫則表示颱風眼的輕空程度
12/05 06:30, 76F
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12/05 06:30, , 77F
越高則是颱風眼越清澈
12/05 06:30, 77F
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12/05 06:31, , 78F
反應在CWB的色調強化雲圖上就是 白環+藍眼
12/05 06:31, 78F
推
12/05 07:43, , 79F
應該沒機會挑戰海燕了 連今年前兩隻挑戰都有問題
12/05 07:43, 79F
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12/05 08:51, , 80F
沒什麼問題啊 3支都是155啊
12/05 08:51, 80F
推
12/05 09:03, , 81F
各有特色的155 客觀分析各有利弊
12/05 09:03, 81F
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12/05 09:04, , 82F
海燕厲害的地方就是幾乎補足了這三隻的缺點
12/05 09:04, 82F
推
12/05 09:27, , 83F
看起來可見光已經重新開眼
12/05 09:27, 83F
推
12/05 11:35, , 84F
有點被打臉了，風眼清空速度非常快
12/05 11:35, 84F
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12/05 11:37, , 85F
三巴也是155啊，可是很明顯就是比黃蜂弱XD
12/05 11:37, 85F
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12/05 11:38, , 86F
W+WMG 看下午會不會調回C5
12/05 11:38, 86F
推
12/05 11:40, , 87F
有WMG嗎，目前只有OW
12/05 11:40, 87F
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12/05 11:42, , 88F
眼花沒看到負號XD
12/05 11:42, 88F
推
12/05 11:49, , 89F
去掉負號也是5度喔
12/05 11:49, 89F
推
12/05 16:07, , 90F
風眼清空的不錯，形態漂亮了一些
12/05 16:07, 90F
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12/05 18:12, , 91F
CMG+WMG回歸
12/05 18:12, 91F
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12/05 18:14, , 92F
我又少看到負號QQ
12/05 18:14, 92F
推
12/05 19:15, , 93F
哈格比風眼好不穩，一直無法清很乾淨…
12/05 19:15, 93F
推
12/05 19:50, , 94F
這種受惠槽前流出的，眼溫都很不穩定
12/05 19:50, 94F
推
12/05 20:30, , 95F
CI要再拼7很有難度啊...
12/05 20:30, 95F
推
12/05 23:38, , 96F
哈格比巔峰有同心圓+小風眼 = 金娜薇
12/05 23:38, 96F
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12/05 23:41, , 97F
WMG眼時. 暖心一度升很快達到+18可惜水汽藍眼時間短
12/05 23:41, 97F
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12/05 23:42, , 98F
哈格比的pct是三者最好的. 而鸚鵡是最差的
12/05 23:42, 98F
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12/05 23:44, , 99F
fnmoc可看出AMSU掃描.鸚鵡PCT沒有一圈..很少人知道
12/05 23:44, 99F
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12/05 23:45, , 100F
感覺傷害鸚鵡迷..但三者都各有特色. 誰是風王難說
12/05 23:45, 100F
推
12/06 00:27, , 101F
去年以為海燕是很罕見的怪物了 結果今年出2個相當的
12/06 00:27, 101F
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12/06 00:28, , 102F
而且哈格比還在這種台灣已經入冬的季節 可怕
12/06 00:28, 102F
推
12/06 11:51, , 103F
這三支都不是跟海燕同一級別喔 他颱風之神耶xd
12/06 11:51, 103F
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12/06 12:25, , 104F
155級別以上就算怪物了..海燕是神 170
12/06 12:25, 104F
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12/06 12:25, , 105F
不過這三個一度都上望170....
12/06 12:25, 105F
推
12/06 13:38, , 106F
哈格比不會去燕王災區了，上天還是有點仁慈的
12/06 13:38, 106F
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12/06 15:34, , 107F
難說啊，在菲中滯留這麼長時間又遇上大潮...
12/06 15:34, 107F
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12/06 17:25, , 108F
微波掃描顯示西南象限很厚，加上哈格比移速慢影響時
12/06 17:25, 108F
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12/06 17:26, , 109F
間長以及大潮，薩馬島塔克洛班影響還是不小
12/06 17:26, 109F
推
12/06 17:47, , 110F
又強又慢的颱風是最可怕的
12/06 17:47, 110F
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文章代碼(AID): #1KVuT0Di (TY_Research)