未來72小時持續留意豪大雨~102/05/19
時間有限~很快的講一下重點..XD
1.目前鋒面如預期的還在華南沿伸到北部海面~台灣仍在鋒前~
中南部的豪雨明顯來自鋒前西南氣流~山區降雨多於平地~爬山的狀況顯著~
北部東北部位於背風面~因此降雨還很少或是根本沒有~風吹起來都是熱風~
2.今晚隨著西風短波槽東移~鋒面將往南移動~逐漸到達北部上空~
由於鋒前西南季風水氣豐沛~也有低層噴流現象(外面的風蠻大的)~
大量暖濕空氣北上~一但跟槽後弱冷空氣相遇加上鋒面系統~
強對流雲團在台灣附近爆發機會頗大~
台灣附近的高層持續位於南亞高壓跟東亞主槽之間的輻散氣流通口上~
幾個探空站也都顯示台灣上空的大氣不穩定度甚高~
因此請大家在至少未來72小時內都要特別注意豪大雨發生的狀況~
包括目前天氣還不錯的北台灣都不能掉以輕心~尤其是今晚到明天這一段時間~
中南部配合西南氣流的降雨也不會停~一陣一陣的大雨會不斷反覆發生~
花東地區位於背風~降雨相對小一點~但也不是完全沒有大雨出現的可能~
3.因為鋒面移動緩慢~預估至少要影響到週三(22號)~
週四(23號)起鋒面應該會逐漸南壓減弱~北邊的西風短波槽也東移淺化~
台灣上空的大氣才會比較趨於穩定~
4.梅雨的降雨是一波一波的~中間的空檔時間長短不一~外出要小心~
對流雲爆發的位置也神出鬼沒~最好多留意雷達上的最新變化~
因此再度提醒大家千萬注意~在鋒面尚未離開或減弱前都不能放心~
看起來好像很可怕~但只要做好準備~並且對梅雨鋒面特性有正確的認知~應該就OK了~
以上簡單供參考囉~
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