Re: [情報] 中央氣象局熱帶性低氣壓特報
※ 引述《tytony (混沌的大氣)》之銘言:
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基本上我個人是覺得做『強度預測』,考量的因素應該還有『社會觀感』
因為台灣有颱風一來,最先被討論的就是『要不要放颱風假』
假如有一個颱風『發展性極高』,強度『可能極強』,就很容易被一般民眾及媒體誤解
有時候光是路徑、風速、雨量就可以吵好幾天了
要是還加上個不確定因素非常大的『強度』,那每個颱風一來不就是吵吵吵
還有一般民眾及媒體對於氣象方面的知識不足
就算CWB放上了強度預測,也很有可能被做文章,加以渲染,造成社會恐慌
就如同上一個颱風,主任只是在FB說:這颱風的強度可能『不會客氣』
過兩天就真的被媒體說成是『造成社會恐慌的言論』
要是颱風沒有預期的強,就幾乎會被加以輿論
久而久之,造成社會對於CWB的預測失去信心,進而失去對於防範颱風的警覺心
再說,就算每次預測真的很準好了,也不會有多少人記得
民眾都只記得失準的那1次,忽略其他很準的99次
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