Re: [討論] 對Sepat雙眼牆的見解(From國外學者)

看板TY_Research作者IanLi (IanLi)時間16年前 (2007/08/18 01:30)推噓4(4推 0噓 3→)

留言7則, 6人參與討論串3/3 (看更多)

※ 引述《ryanlin311 (ryan)》之銘言： : 國外也注意到聖帕持續很長一段的雙眼牆觀測 : 以下是NRL(Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA) : 的一些看法,其中聖帕內眼牆是否完全崩潰,在強度上可能也些 : 有不同的變化.其中Katrina就是很好的例子 : ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sepat provides another stunning example of the quandary facing the TC : warning community. 面對熱帶氣旋警報上，有關令人困惑的現象，Sepat提供了另一個漂亮的例子 : 1. Double eyewalls create a secondary wind max, potentially at a much : larger radius than the original single eyewall. 在雙眼牆結構上，在風力分布上有另一個強風區，可能在原來的眼牆外有另一個半徑更大眼牆 : 2. If the inner eye collapses, the radius of max winds makes a step jump : to a much larger radius. 若內眼牆崩潰，強風區的分布半徑會跳躍到外眼牆上 : 3. Even if the inner eye does not collapse, it typically becomes much : weaker. 即使內眼牆沒崩潰，也會趨於減弱 : In both scenarios, the secondary eyewall and its associated high winds : present a radically expanded wind field for those in its path during : landfall. Coastal warnings, preparations and the expectations of all : folks in the landfall region must realize that max winds will NOT be : contained within the "typical" small inner core that encompasses 10s of : km, but now can be multiple times larger in size. 在這兩個案例中，外眼牆和伴隨的環狀風場在登錄過程中，會讓警報和登陸地區的民眾會發現到，最強的風力並不是環繞在數十公里大的內眼牆上，而是原先預期數倍大 : Hurricane Katrina is the classic case, since it was in double eyewall : mode at landfall and did NOT collapse the inner eye AND shrink the 2nd : eyewall back to replace the inner eye prior to landfall. 颶風Katrina是一精典例子，在登陸時，內眼牆並沒崩潰且外眼牆也沒收縮而取代原先的眼牆 : Thus, not only are we faced with the usual landfall timing and max : intensity dilemmas, our need has now advanced to "what eyewall cycle : stage will the storm be in at landfall"? This presents fascinating : opportunities for research efforts on multiple fronts. 因此，不只我們要面對登陸的時機和強度的難題，並要思考在登陸時眼牆的結構是哪樣？這議題是個迷人的機會去研究相關效應 : Best wishes to our friends in Taiwan. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.115.205.209

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