[討論] 對Sepat雙眼牆的見解(From國外學者)

看板TY_Research作者ryanlin311 (ryan)時間17年前 (2007/08/18 00:33)推噓15(15推 0噓 14→)

留言29則, 16人參與討論串1/3 (看更多)

國外也注意到聖帕持續很長一段的雙眼牆觀測以下是NRL(Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA) 的一些看法,其中聖帕內眼牆是否完全崩潰,在強度上可能也些有不同的變化.其中Katrina就是很好的例子 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sepat provides another stunning example of the quandary facing the TC warning community. 1. Double eyewalls create a secondary wind max, potentially at a much larger radius than the original single eyewall. 2. If the inner eye collapses, the radius of max winds makes a step jump to a much larger radius. 3. Even if the inner eye does not collapse, it typically becomes much weaker. In both scenarios, the secondary eyewall and its associated high winds present a radically expanded wind field for those in its path during landfall. Coastal warnings, preparations and the expectations of all folks in the landfall region must realize that max winds will NOT be contained within the "typical" small inner core that encompasses 10s of km, but now can be multiple times larger in size. Hurricane Katrina is the classic case, since it was in double eyewall mode at landfall and did NOT collapse the inner eye AND shrink the 2nd eyewall back to replace the inner eye prior to landfall. Thus, not only are we faced with the usual landfall timing and max intensity dilemmas, our need has now advanced to "what eyewall cycle stage will the storm be in at landfall"? This presents fascinating opportunities for research efforts on multiple fronts. Best wishes to our friends in Taiwan. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.154

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chian1983

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