[情報] 美元會再漲5% ！？降息不可能？

看板Stock作者 (上海極司非爾路76號)時間8月前 (2023/09/13 22:42), 編輯推噓74(79推 5噓 46→)
留言130則, 91人參與, 8月前最新討論串1/2 (看更多)
不負責翻譯在最後 Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still- elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. Bloomberg News Anya Andrianova Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧ (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen. His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic ipated. The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug hly 4.3% now. “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.” Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov. 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China. US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows. Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “ But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.” Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most. He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening. But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden cut rates.” In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for most of 2024. (Updates market movement.) 不負責翻譯如下 Acadian Asset Management（知名資產管理公司）管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton Hill表示， 未來幾個月，美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲，美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%（Fe d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息） 因為通膨打不下來，可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策，至少再加息2-3次 他說：美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功，反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息 結論： 救救美債？ -- Sent from my iPhone 13 Pro Max ○ PiTT // PHJCI -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 42.79.150.193 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html
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09/13 22:44, 8月前 , 1F
計畫通 裱死中國
09/13 22:44, 1F
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09/13 22:46, 8月前 , 2F
台幣35指日可待
09/13 22:46, 2F
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09/13 22:46, 8月前 , 3F
一邊說降息一邊說升息…
09/13 22:46, 3F
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09/13 22:47, 8月前 , 4F
騙人吧,嗚嗚嗚
09/13 22:47, 4F
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09/13 22:48, 8月前 , 5F
根本沒說過會降息吧 多挖自作多情
09/13 22:48, 5F
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09/13 22:48, 8月前 , 6F
美國財政部也可能出手買美債
09/13 22:48, 6F
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09/13 22:49, 8月前 , 7F
走降息循環走了20年所累積下來的通膨預期，用1-2年
09/13 22:49, 7F
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09/13 22:49, 8月前 , 8F
急速升息就能打下來？想得太美了吧
09/13 22:49, 8F
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09/13 22:50, 8月前 , 9F
要不要去跟上一篇打一架
09/13 22:50, 9F
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09/13 22:50, 8月前 , 10F
中國表示：要死一起死
09/13 22:50, 10F
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09/13 22:53, 8月前 , 11F
這波利率大概會升到8%以上 幫QQ
09/13 22:53, 11F
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09/13 22:53, 8月前 , 12F
這篇可是彭博社的新聞
09/13 22:53, 12F
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09/13 22:55, 8月前 , 13F
躺著噴 不重要
09/13 22:55, 13F
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09/13 22:57, 8月前 , 14F
真的完了
09/13 22:57, 14F
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09/13 22:57, 8月前 , 15F
散戶都進場長債ETF了，怎麼現在才說
09/13 22:57, 15F
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09/13 22:58, 8月前 , 16F
美國農會表示：
09/13 22:58, 16F
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09/13 22:59, 8月前 , 17F
漲5%也才33多 不會到35啦
09/13 22:59, 17F
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09/13 23:00, 8月前 , 18F
09/13 23:00, 18F
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09/13 23:02, 8月前 , 19F
噴噴
09/13 23:02, 19F
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09/13 23:06, 8月前 , 20F
美元短多長空
09/13 23:06, 20F
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09/13 23:08, 8月前 , 21F
台幣短期36 長期40
09/13 23:08, 21F
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09/13 23:08, 8月前 , 22F
09/13 23:08, 22F
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09/13 23:10, 8月前 , 23F
丸子 台股要崩了嗎
09/13 23:10, 23F
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09/13 23:11, 8月前 , 24F
台幣至少35了
09/13 23:11, 24F
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09/13 23:11, 8月前 , 25F
一副要跌的樣子
09/13 23:11, 25F
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09/13 23:12, 8月前 , 26F
我加碼 新台幣回到固定40
09/13 23:12, 26F
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09/13 23:12, 8月前 , 27F
很好啊美國就是自己在做債務調整
09/13 23:12, 27F
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09/13 23:13, 8月前 , 28F
讚喔
09/13 23:13, 28F
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09/13 23:13, 8月前 , 29F
部位在美股，樂觀其成
09/13 23:13, 29F
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09/13 23:15, 8月前 , 30F
買美債ETF真的保重
09/13 23:15, 30F
噓
09/13 23:15, 8月前 , 31F
5%哩 沒看台幣目前反應是升值 美債也是嗎
09/13 23:15, 31F
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09/13 23:18, 8月前 , 32F
房租都要降了 石油是還能漲多久
09/13 23:18, 32F
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09/13 23:18, 8月前 , 33F
問題是噴到爆啊....
09/13 23:18, 33F
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09/13 23:19, 8月前 , 34F
美國繼續升息的話，死最慘的是壽險公司，不是現在
09/13 23:19, 34F
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09/13 23:19, 8月前 , 35F
進場買美債ETF的散戶
09/13 23:19, 35F
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09/13 23:19, 8月前 , 36F
騙人的啦
09/13 23:19, 36F
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09/13 23:24, 8月前 , 37F
台幣會再跌，只是會跌到哪裡，難估~~~
09/13 23:24, 37F
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09/13 23:25, 8月前 , 38F
鎂蛙笑哇哇
09/13 23:25, 38F
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09/13 23:29, 8月前 , 39F
買美債的只有破產跟在破產的路上 二選一
09/13 23:29, 39F
還有 51 則推文
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09/14 04:12, 8月前 , 91F
媽的定存美金比玩股票賺得多
09/14 04:12, 91F
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09/14 04:56, 8月前 , 92F
說降息的不是都華爾街在說？他們期待一年多了吧？
09/14 04:56, 92F
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09/14 05:01, 8月前 , 93F
09/14 05:01, 93F
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09/14 05:01, 8月前 , 94F
美金定存現在真的香到不行，可惜當初買太少了，要
09/14 05:01, 94F
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09/14 05:01, 8月前 , 95F
是敢all in的話，現在一個月的利息應該已經超過我
09/14 05:01, 95F
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09/14 05:01, 8月前 , 96F
未來的月退俸了
09/14 05:01, 96F
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09/14 05:40, 8月前 , 97F
告訴你還會漲五趴還不歐印
09/14 05:40, 97F
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09/14 06:26, 8月前 , 98F
35當然好啊，台灣是出超國，賺翻了
09/14 06:26, 98F
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09/14 06:42, 8月前 , 99F
樓上，台灣是能源進口國，台電、中油會破產
09/14 06:42, 99F
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09/14 06:43, 8月前 , 100F
通膨會爆炸，政府要又花稅金救台電、中油
09/14 06:43, 100F
噓
09/14 06:58, 8月前 , 101F
看來美金要跌了，快出脫唷
09/14 06:58, 101F
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09/14 07:06, 8月前 , 102F
推 美元
09/14 07:06, 102F
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09/14 07:10, 8月前 , 103F
台灣也準備升息了 大哥二弟大利空 趕快逢低買進
09/14 07:10, 103F
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09/14 07:40, 8月前 , 104F
去年央行怎做 今年就會怎做 但好奇的是 假如這波打
09/14 07:40, 104F
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09/14 07:40, 8月前 , 105F
通膨+降息要耗十年爲單位的話 央行不升息撐的住？
09/14 07:40, 105F
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09/14 07:40, 8月前 , 106F
匯率放風到35會讓政府被物價洗臉 升息會被房貸族洗
09/14 07:40, 106F
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09/14 07:40, 8月前 , 107F
臉 兩難 XD
09/14 07:40, 107F
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09/14 07:43, 8月前 , 108F
哈哈 前兩年還有人在酸美金定存
09/14 07:43, 108F
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09/14 07:56, 8月前 , 109F
去年酸32美金定存的人呢？
09/14 07:56, 109F
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09/14 07:57, 8月前 , 110F
老鮑：怎麼一直都有人不信我說的話
09/14 07:57, 110F
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09/14 08:00, 8月前 , 111F
股票都賺多少了 美金定存現在賺多少啊？
09/14 08:00, 111F
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09/14 08:02, 8月前 , 112F
中國還能防守離岸人民幣前，應該不會降息
09/14 08:02, 112F
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09/14 08:08, 8月前 , 113F
股票真的賺得人是有多少？有定存美金的人多嗎？
09/14 08:08, 113F
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09/14 08:15, 8月前 , 114F
台幣真的要貶破35了
09/14 08:15, 114F
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09/14 08:18, 8月前 , 115F
到35 出口的中小會爽死吧
09/14 08:18, 115F
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09/14 08:29, 8月前 , 116F
油價減產，升息繼續
09/14 08:29, 116F
噓
09/14 08:32, 8月前 , 117F
等一下~你這是翻譯？還是心得？也縮太短了吧？
09/14 08:32, 117F
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09/14 09:11, 8月前 , 118F
再漲5%也太爽了吧 躺著領10%
09/14 09:11, 118F
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09/14 09:35, 8月前 , 119F
再漲5%.....今天馬上就跌惹~
09/14 09:35, 119F
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09/14 09:44, 8月前 , 120F
國泰美金定存還是只有3%左右，有點想換銀行了
09/14 09:44, 120F
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09/14 10:00, 8月前 , 121F
華南美金定存優利5%
09/14 10:00, 121F
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09/14 10:15, 8月前 , 122F
匯豐有美元定存優利6%新戶6個月~
09/14 10:15, 122F
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09/14 10:31, 8月前 , 123F
32台灣央行已經受不了~ 還35勒
09/14 10:31, 123F
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09/14 10:35, 8月前 , 124F
匯豐那個6.6%要先放300萬才行喔
09/14 10:35, 124F
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09/14 10:54, 8月前 , 125F
美蛙vvv
09/14 10:54, 125F
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09/14 11:44, 8月前 , 126F
語畢台幣狂跌 笑死
09/14 11:44, 126F
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09/14 12:33, 8月前 , 127F
通常這種文章一出 應該就...
09/14 12:33, 127F
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09/14 13:11, 8月前 , 128F
現在買美金定存？？當真？
09/14 13:11, 128F
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09/14 19:51, 8月前 , 129F
cc
09/14 19:51, 129F
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09/14 20:49, 8月前 , 130F
央行死不升息在那撐...ㄎㄎ
09/14 20:49, 130F
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文章代碼(AID): #1b0SfO9f (Stock)