[其他] 高盛： 油價會再次崩跌
原文如下 懶得看的人 可直接看最後本人的不負責任翻譯
PS: 雖然是4/24的消息 但是放到今天來看 狀況還是一樣
Goldman Sachs Expects Another Oil Price Crash
By ZeroHedge - Apr 24, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
While it may be tempting to argue that the worst is behind us for oil price given the historic collapse in WTI which crashed to negative $40 on Monday as holders of May WTI futures panicked to sell their holdings at any price - even paying the "buyer" for taking possession of the deliverable barrels - Goldman's chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie reminds us that it is important to remember that unlike bonds and stocks, "commodities are spot assets, not anticipatory assets and must clear current
supply and demand, which still remain extremely out of balance in all markets."
And since oil supply remains vastly greater than demand, we are merely in the eye of the hurricane at least until the June WTI maturity in one month, with Goldman expecting the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks - unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event - which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the
expected demand losses. Alternatively, we could see another "Monday massacre" with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.
That's the bad news: the good news is that slowly the market is rebalancing, and once production is well and truly shuttered, there is a potential for a violent price reversal - but remember, one can't just "price it in" as commodities have to reprice through the spot, not forward channel. As Currie notes, "we have now entered the inflection phase where the rebalancing has started, but this period could take 4-8 weeks to resolve before we can comfortably argue a bottom has been carved out." This
timeline assumes that peak demand loss was likely last week with nascent restarts in Europe now underway, but as Goldman concedes substantial uncertainty still remains.
In conclusion, "while acknowledging that a balanced market is in eyesight, more forward-looking assets like equities can look past the next several weeks and begin to price a recovery; however, commodities simply do not have that luxury."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-Another-Oil-Price-Crash.html
個人心得 （不負責任翻譯+個人心得）
之前的西德州原油走到負值 ，很多人認為最差的情況已經過了（理論上沒辦法比負值更差）所以開始抄底，
但是高盛首席分析師認為：油跟一般的股票 債卷完全不一樣（現在股票就很明顯跟現實經濟脫鉤），他就是很明白的供給跟需求關係
全球儲存油的空間 大概3-4 禮拜就放不下了， 美國頁岩油商一定要《馬上》《大幅》減產
PS:高盛除了是跨國投資銀行 也是美國國庫證券的國債一級自營商，也是通常意義上的知名做市商 ，所以他並不希望看到美國油商倒閉
只要供給跟需求能到一個平衡 油價就有可能快速反轉
如果一切都在掌控之內（達到平衡）那至少也要4-8禮拜
而且大家都知道有太多的不確定性因素
最後高盛又佛心的再提醒一次 ，這種大宗商品 跟 股票這種信心資產 完全是兩碼子事 一切要看市場真實情況
--
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