Re: [新聞] 川普新關稅擊中要害！ 美媒：將重創中國消失
由於原來新聞有關所謂彭博的數字(67% 18%),找不到來源且似乎與常識印象不符.
因此建議暫時忽略這些數字不要參考.
(後補:感謝fatfree網友找到彭博原文
原文網址:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-11/trump-s-tarif
fs-hit-china-where-it-hurts
縮網址:https://tinyurl.com/y798cv3d
67% 18%數字證實出處確為彭博)
這裡將CNBC原文做重點翻譯:
標題:
New tariffs threatened by the US would be more harmful to China than the
first batch, says bank CEO
星展銀行CEO表示,美國威脅的新一輪關稅,對中國將比第一輪傷害更重.
The proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, if
implemented, could harm the world's second-largest economy, said Piyush
Gupta, CEO of Singapore’s DBS Bank.
Piyush Gupta,新加坡新展銀行CEO表示,
如新增的2000億美元中國出口貨品關稅實施,將對這個世界第二大經濟體造成傷害.
That’s because the targeted Chinese goods include a greater number of
finished products, which can be replaced by similar ones from other sources,
he said.
他認為,傷害原因在於這輪針對的中國貨物,包含大部分終端成品,
而這些成品可被其他相似的替代來源取代.
內文:
The proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods
would hit the world’s second-largest economy more severely than the previous
custom duties did, according to the chief executive of Southeast Asia’s
largest bank.
東南亞最大的銀行CEO表示,研擬中的額外2000億美金對中貨物關稅.
相較於第一輪關稅,此波行動可能會更嚴重的打擊這個世界第二大經濟體的經濟.
That’s because the latest list of targeted Chinese goods includes a greater
number of finished products, which can be replaced by similar ones from other
sources, Piyush Gupta, the CEO of Singapore’s DBS Bank, said on Friday.
原因在於最新的研議關稅清單,含有非常大的終端產品比重,
而這類產品容易被其他國供應來源給取代.(Piyush Gupta,星展銀行CEO於周五表示.)
The Trump administration on Tuesday said it plans to impose 10 percent
tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which include refrigerators,
electronics, cotton and auto parts. The tariffs will undergo a two-month
review process, with hearings in August.
川普行政當局在周二表示,他們計畫課徵10%關稅在2000億美金中國貨物,其中包括
電冰箱,電子產品,棉類紡織品與汽車零件.課稅方案將經歷兩個月的公眾審閱期,
而公聽會將於八月舉辦.
Those tariffs, if implemented, “might start biting a little bit more in
terms of the volume of trade” compared to the levies on $34 billion in
Chinese goods that came into effect on July 6, Gupta told CNBC’s Martin
Soong at the DBS Asian Insights Conference in Singapore.
Gupta在新加坡的DBS亞洲記者會中,向CNBC的Martin Soong說明,
這輪新的關稅如果實施,相較於第一輪在7月6日已實施的340億美金關稅,
可能對貿易量影響更加明顯.
Impact from the earlier round of U.S. tariffs on the Chinese economy may be
limited as there aren’t many alternatives to those affected goods, he said.
他表示,稍早已實施的關稅,造成的影響可能是有限的.原因在於這些貨物並沒有較多的
替代商品.
“I think most of these relate to components mostly in the mobile phone and
the personal computer supply chain. I think alternate sources of supply are
limited,” the CEO said.
"這些第一輪課稅的產品,主要影響到手機零件&PC零件,還有它們的供應鏈產業.
而此類供應鏈替代來源有限.",CEO表示.
“The total impact is probably price increases of magnitude of 5 to 10
percent, my own sense is these will be passed on to the end consumer or
perhaps absorbed by the supply chain. I don’t think these will reduce China’
s export volume anytime soon. It’ll take at least two to three years for the
supply chain to be recreated,” he added.
他認為,加總的價格影響大約是5~10%.而這些價格上漲可能會被加到消費者身上,
或是由廠商自行吸收.他並表示中國的出口量應該不會被馬上影響.
因為此類電子供應鏈要移轉,大概要花2~3年的時間.
Trade-reliant economy already hit
Even before tensions between China and the U.S. turned into a full-blown
trade war, some trade-dependent economies have experienced a slowdown in
growth.
在美中升高至全面貿易戰之前,各種與貿易相關的經濟已經受到不少打擊.
一些依賴貿易的經濟體,經濟成長已經減緩.
Singapore, a Southeast Asian country with one of the highest trade-to-GDP
ratio in the world, said advance estimates point to its second-quarter growth
missing forecasts. The economy is expected to expand by 3.8 percent
year-over-year in the second quarter, short of the 4 percent growth estimated
by Reuters.
東南亞的新加坡,是全球貿易佔GDP比重最重的國家.當局表示初步估計的GDP成長,
低於預期表現.第二季經濟成長表現為3.8%,而原先估計成長率為4%.
Economists expect rising trade tensions to further threaten growth in open
economies such as Singapore. For Gupta, it’s a concern that the world is
moving “backward” after making much progress to promote a more open trading
system.
經濟學家預期,升高的貿易佔情勢,將更嚴重威脅新加坡這類開放經濟體的經濟成長.
而Gupta憂慮的是,在多年時間建立起如此開放的貿易系統後,世界的貿易將走向回頭路.
“I think it’s safe to say that the world has benefited enormously from an
open trading system ... so anything that goes backward from that is a cause
for concern,” said Gupta.
Gupta表示:公平的講,開放的貿易體系讓大家受益豐厚...
所以任何開放貿易的回頭路,將是頗值得憂慮的.
---
心得:
1.查了美國政府統計資料,
耐久財全部加總(汽車,家電,家俱,電子產品...等),佔美國人消費比重才佔11%,
打貿易戰看起來還真的痛不癢~~
(https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp1q18_3rd.pdf
耐久財數字在第八頁.
2.電子業得花2~3年建立替代供應鏈,不知目前台商誰跑得最快?
--
When you have taken part in a game in which your own life is at stake, all
other games are small after that experience.
--Mauno Koivisto
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.115.195.16
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1531607313.A.6C7.html
推
07/15 06:43, , 1F
07/15 06:43, 1F
感謝,這就補上~~
※ 編輯: schooldance (59.115.195.16), 07/15/2018 07:00:12
→
07/15 08:07, , 2F
07/15 08:07, 2F
→
07/15 08:08, , 3F
07/15 08:08, 3F
→
07/15 08:09, , 4F
07/15 08:09, 4F
→
07/15 08:29, , 5F
07/15 08:29, 5F
→
07/15 08:29, , 6F
07/15 08:29, 6F
→
07/15 08:29, , 7F
07/15 08:29, 7F
→
07/15 08:30, , 8F
07/15 08:30, 8F
→
07/15 08:31, , 9F
07/15 08:31, 9F
→
07/15 08:34, , 10F
07/15 08:34, 10F
推
07/15 08:51, , 11F
07/15 08:51, 11F
→
07/15 08:59, , 12F
07/15 08:59, 12F
→
07/15 08:59, , 13F
07/15 08:59, 13F
→
07/15 08:59, , 14F
07/15 08:59, 14F
→
07/15 09:01, , 15F
07/15 09:01, 15F
→
07/15 09:01, , 16F
07/15 09:01, 16F
推
07/15 09:40, , 17F
07/15 09:40, 17F
→
07/15 09:51, , 18F
07/15 09:51, 18F
→
07/15 09:52, , 19F
07/15 09:52, 19F
推
07/15 10:35, , 20F
07/15 10:35, 20F
推
07/15 10:40, , 21F
07/15 10:40, 21F
推
07/15 10:46, , 22F
07/15 10:46, 22F
→
07/15 10:52, , 23F
07/15 10:52, 23F
→
07/15 10:53, , 24F
07/15 10:53, 24F
→
07/15 10:53, , 25F
07/15 10:53, 25F
→
07/15 10:54, , 26F
07/15 10:54, 26F
→
07/15 10:54, , 27F
07/15 10:54, 27F
→
07/15 10:54, , 28F
07/15 10:54, 28F
推
07/15 10:56, , 29F
07/15 10:56, 29F
→
07/15 10:57, , 30F
07/15 10:57, 30F
→
07/15 10:57, , 31F
07/15 10:57, 31F
→
07/15 10:58, , 32F
07/15 10:58, 32F
→
07/15 10:58, , 33F
07/15 10:58, 33F
推
07/15 11:25, , 34F
07/15 11:25, 34F
→
07/15 11:25, , 35F
07/15 11:25, 35F
→
07/15 11:25, , 36F
07/15 11:25, 36F
→
07/15 11:49, , 37F
07/15 11:49, 37F
→
07/15 11:49, , 38F
07/15 11:49, 38F
→
07/15 11:54, , 39F
07/15 11:54, 39F
→
07/15 11:55, , 40F
07/15 11:55, 40F
→
07/15 11:56, , 41F
07/15 11:56, 41F
→
07/15 11:57, , 42F
07/15 11:57, 42F
→
07/15 11:58, , 43F
07/15 11:58, 43F
→
07/15 11:58, , 44F
07/15 11:58, 44F
→
07/15 12:00, , 45F
07/15 12:00, 45F
推
07/15 12:07, , 46F
07/15 12:07, 46F
推
07/15 12:29, , 47F
07/15 12:29, 47F
推
07/15 12:43, , 48F
07/15 12:43, 48F
推
07/15 13:00, , 49F
07/15 13:00, 49F
→
07/15 13:00, , 50F
07/15 13:00, 50F
推
07/15 13:09, , 51F
07/15 13:09, 51F
→
07/15 13:09, , 52F
07/15 13:09, 52F
推
07/15 13:18, , 53F
07/15 13:18, 53F
推
07/15 13:27, , 54F
07/15 13:27, 54F
→
07/15 13:27, , 55F
07/15 13:27, 55F
→
07/15 13:29, , 56F
07/15 13:29, 56F
推
07/15 13:32, , 57F
07/15 13:32, 57F
→
07/15 13:33, , 58F
07/15 13:33, 58F
→
07/15 13:41, , 59F
07/15 13:41, 59F
→
07/15 13:42, , 60F
07/15 13:42, 60F
推
07/15 13:43, , 61F
07/15 13:43, 61F
→
07/15 13:44, , 62F
07/15 13:44, 62F
→
07/15 13:46, , 63F
07/15 13:46, 63F
→
07/15 13:47, , 64F
07/15 13:47, 64F
→
07/15 13:48, , 65F
07/15 13:48, 65F
推
07/15 14:12, , 66F
07/15 14:12, 66F
→
07/15 14:13, , 67F
07/15 14:13, 67F
推
07/15 15:14, , 68F
07/15 15:14, 68F
→
07/15 15:14, , 69F
07/15 15:14, 69F
噓
07/15 15:43, , 70F
07/15 15:43, 70F
→
07/15 17:21, , 71F
07/15 17:21, 71F
→
07/15 17:22, , 72F
07/15 17:22, 72F
→
07/15 17:22, , 73F
07/15 17:22, 73F
→
07/15 17:24, , 74F
07/15 17:24, 74F
→
07/15 17:25, , 75F
07/15 17:25, 75F
推
07/15 19:26, , 76F
07/15 19:26, 76F
→
07/15 21:03, , 77F
07/15 21:03, 77F
→
07/15 21:05, , 78F
07/15 21:05, 78F
→
07/15 21:05, , 79F
07/15 21:05, 79F
→
07/15 21:05, , 80F
07/15 21:05, 80F
→
07/15 21:06, , 81F
07/15 21:06, 81F
→
07/16 07:38, , 82F
07/16 07:38, 82F
→
07/16 07:38, , 83F
07/16 07:38, 83F