[標的] 華新1605消失
1. 標的:
華新1605
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得
多
3. 分析/正文:
此圖是清明連假時的截圖,當時因為入場華新科,意外發現同集團的華新(1605),仔細
看一下覺得線圖非常漂亮,以下是本人分析,還請各位高手不吝分享自己的觀點,希望能
找到自己的盲點,分析如下:
https://i.imgur.com/yNw5Ayp.jpg
![](https://i.imgur.com/yNw5Ayp.jpg)
1.
3/1時放量長紅之後進入盤整沒有跌破起漲點,盤整近一個月,使股價與均線之乖離率修
正至零軸,往後主力在拉升價格時也比較不會遇到亂流。
2.
因為盤整時間夠長,使布林通道壓縮的很緊密,而在盤整時也沒有使股價落於中軌之下,
屬於強勢盤整,多軍略佔優勢,故若放量突破,極高的機率是長紅k突破
3.
4/2、4/3連續兩天小短紅k與價量沒有背道而馳,4/3比起4/2不同的地方是,4/2雖然有一
點點量增,不過有收上影線比本體長,顯示當天空方力道較強,不過已明顯減弱。4/3比4/2再量增,但跟2日相比,這次沒有上影線,而是收最高,顯示多軍已取得優勢了(盤整這幾天的量,看起來就是主力在試水溫,看看空方是否已被清除乾淨)
4.
SAR反轉訊號剛好也走完下降波段,4/9轉為上升波段
5.
受惠於離岸風電題材,華城、大亞已先起漲了。根據心理學「股市中投資人追價停損行為
」來看,在比價效應使然之下,有高機率會使華新「補漲」。
以及現有本益比9.59來看,在「錨定效應」作用下,同業的本益比13.48會被當成錨點,
使目前本益比較低的華新有了給追價者追價的勇氣及理由
綜合以上幾點,決定在4/9開盤毫不猶豫馬上進場,因為有1元的配息條件支撐,不用擔心
會有拉回的情況產生(支撐點也差不多將近18了),前高18.1受到市場心理影響我想應該
也能夠輕鬆突破創新高(畢竟股票最終考驗的還是人心XD)
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
進場:17.8
停利:短26.3根據去年財報EPS1.95計算)
長30.7~40.3(今年EPS有望超過3)
https://i.imgur.com/wnVOzaa.jpg
![](https://i.imgur.com/wnVOzaa.jpg)
順帶一提,華新不動產部門在盤中也傳出好消息,1月因認列南京辦公樓一期銷售款96億元入帳,每股盈餘單季大約就1.34了,國際銅鎳價格仍處於高檔,後市我自己還滿看好的
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.8.135.176
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.8.135.176
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1523314854.A.06F.html
※ 編輯: Stefanstefan (101.8.135.176), 04/10/2018 07:04:41
※ 編輯: Stefanstefan (101.8.135.176), 04/10/2018 07:05:56
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※ 編輯: Stefanstefan (101.8.135.176), 04/10/2018 07:16:45
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