1. 標的:協益 (5356)
2. 分類:多
3. 分析/正文:
a.基本面:今年月營收開始好轉,從高檔回落下來,估計去年是短底,今年勝去年
2016 毛利率:10~11%,較去年同期持平微降
營益率為 5~6%,也約當與去年持平
未來下一季毛利跟營益提升是觀察重點
2016 上半年 eps:2.31,已經比去年好,證明去年已是短底
粗估今年eps為 4.5~5元,以現在股價推算本益比才8.57倍
去年發放4元現金股利,其實股利發放算是蠻大方
負債方面的速動比跟速率比約259/162
利息保障倍數把173.73,財務體質還算不錯
近八年的自由現金流只有兩年為負值,現金流平穩
b.技術面:從去年3/09 的74 一路回檔至今,已經接近突破收歛末端
目前均線糾結,各時期投資人成本已經逐漸收斂接近
7/05 除息後的量縮平台整理已近兩個月,半年線不算壓力
因為以8/30 那根長紅只需600 左右的量即可輕易拉過
明日若出量長紅即可突破半年線
c.籌碼面:這檔中只有外資持股5.6%,融資使用率約當7.23%,游資散戶持股低
大於1000張以上持股由今年一月的27.08%上升至27/49%
d.消息面:協益以塑膠件產品起家,之後再跨入雷射印表機碳粉匣、
汽車音響面板及機上盒、醫療器材,更切入高階的光學鏡頭領域
搶攻毛利高的車載鏡頭及安控鏡頭市場,產品屬利基型產品,獲利穩
隱憂:主要客戶佔業務70% 的 Lexmark公司將出售給PAG集團
擔心有可能會有轉單效應,不過要下半年股東會通過才會成立
造成效應也是明年才有可能發酵,不過也不一定會發生!!
4. 進退場機制:(停損價位/出場條件/長期投資)
進場價位39.6 / 停損價位 38.25,這次做短波段,均線扣底了
因為大盤點位及外資期貨多單有可能隨時抽手,所以目前不宜做太久的波段
看到大家對樂陞的痛了,最近文章實在有夠多,就讓協益來轉移大家的痛
短波段GOGO ~~
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※ 編輯: jokeman (36.239.229.17), 09/05/2016 00:05:06
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