[標的] 太陽能類股
1. 標的:太陽能類股
2. 分類:空
3. 分析/正文:
1.太陽能廠不論多/單晶電池片模組皆受報價影響其獲利表現
以其多晶電池片為例台灣廠商成本約在US$ 0.3/W,而至三月起報價已大幅滑落至少5%以上
參考資料1. http://goo.gl/qr9qo6
參考資料2. http://goo.gl/EoLgcM
2.延續(1)去底起的一波漲幅起因來至於大陸的搶裝潮,趕在0630前大限前
這一波訂單已完成,歐洲訂單持續積弱不振,日本補助下調,美國補助則展延至2019年
又因中國/台灣兩岸廠商重疊性過高,推測後續也必須是減產殺價競爭
3.四月初中國政府嚴加把關多晶矽進口,徹查未依雙反稅率循走私進口之多晶矽料源,使得
中國難以買得多晶矽現貨之情況更加嚴重,現貨難以買得,但下游電池片持續弱勢
無法將漲價轉嫁至下游產品之上,更進一步壓縮產商毛利
但由於五月訂單已談定並續朝六月訂單洽談,多晶矽直至五月仍將維持緩漲局面
而非中國區域也因陸續將OCI等不太受雙反限制影響的多晶矽運往中國,使得非中區域也
陸續出現現貨市場料源明顯減少之情形,價格聯袂續漲。
4.中台價差持續縮小,日後轉單效應至2.3線廠商日益嚴重
只能依靠第三地組裝降低成本
4.
進退場機制:(停損價位/出場條件/長期投資)
避免提及標的,故以類股進行說明
目前類股Q1均表現亮眼,其原因多來自去年報價高漲
毛利增加至今年年曆二月前都還能看見利多新聞(過年加班,產能全開)
但Q2起電池片報價跌勢快速,少了中國搶裝潮,報價走勢實在看不見低點
故以空方進行操作,並不排除Q2由盈轉虧的可能性
但大部分類股近日皆有10-20%的股價修正 價位就不再此提供給股神
只須注意的是尚未公布Q1的個股 或許皆有一波反彈
那就是個不錯的機會了~~
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.122.53.35
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1462169999.A.10C.html
→
05/02 14:21, , 1F
05/02 14:21, 1F
→
05/02 14:26, , 2F
05/02 14:26, 2F
→
05/02 14:26, , 3F
05/02 14:26, 3F
推
05/02 14:27, , 4F
05/02 14:27, 4F
推
05/02 14:31, , 5F
05/02 14:31, 5F
→
05/02 14:31, , 6F
05/02 14:31, 6F
推
05/02 14:34, , 7F
05/02 14:34, 7F
推
05/02 14:45, , 8F
05/02 14:45, 8F
推
05/02 14:45, , 9F
05/02 14:45, 9F
→
05/02 14:47, , 10F
05/02 14:47, 10F
→
05/02 14:54, , 11F
05/02 14:54, 11F
→
05/02 14:54, , 12F
05/02 14:54, 12F
推
05/02 15:16, , 13F
05/02 15:16, 13F
推
05/02 15:17, , 14F
05/02 15:17, 14F
推
05/02 15:33, , 15F
05/02 15:33, 15F
→
05/02 15:33, , 16F
05/02 15:33, 16F
推
05/02 15:36, , 17F
05/02 15:36, 17F
→
05/02 15:41, , 18F
05/02 15:41, 18F
→
05/02 15:41, , 19F
05/02 15:41, 19F
推
05/02 16:00, , 20F
05/02 16:00, 20F
→
05/02 16:01, , 21F
05/02 16:01, 21F
推
05/02 16:45, , 22F
05/02 16:45, 22F
→
05/02 16:45, , 23F
05/02 16:45, 23F
→
05/02 16:46, , 24F
05/02 16:46, 24F
推
05/02 16:55, , 25F
05/02 16:55, 25F
→
05/02 16:56, , 26F
05/02 16:56, 26F
→
05/02 17:00, , 27F
05/02 17:00, 27F
推
05/02 17:04, , 28F
05/02 17:04, 28F
推
05/02 17:41, , 29F
05/02 17:41, 29F
→
05/02 17:58, , 30F
05/02 17:58, 30F
噓
05/02 18:26, , 31F
05/02 18:26, 31F
→
05/02 18:26, , 32F
05/02 18:26, 32F
推
05/02 18:34, , 33F
05/02 18:34, 33F
→
05/02 18:56, , 34F
05/02 18:56, 34F
推
05/02 18:56, , 35F
05/02 18:56, 35F
推
05/02 19:10, , 36F
05/02 19:10, 36F
→
05/02 19:20, , 37F
05/02 19:20, 37F
→
05/02 19:20, , 38F
05/02 19:20, 38F
→
05/02 19:30, , 39F
05/02 19:30, 39F
→
05/02 19:30, , 40F
05/02 19:30, 40F
→
05/02 19:31, , 41F
05/02 19:31, 41F
推
05/02 19:50, , 42F
05/02 19:50, 42F
推
05/02 20:24, , 43F
05/02 20:24, 43F
→
05/02 20:31, , 44F
05/02 20:31, 44F
→
05/02 20:31, , 45F
05/02 20:31, 45F
推
05/02 20:44, , 46F
05/02 20:44, 46F
推
05/02 20:48, , 47F
05/02 20:48, 47F
→
05/02 20:49, , 48F
05/02 20:49, 48F
→
05/02 20:49, , 49F
05/02 20:49, 49F
→
05/02 20:50, , 50F
05/02 20:50, 50F
→
05/02 20:58, , 51F
05/02 20:58, 51F
→
05/02 20:59, , 52F
05/02 20:59, 52F
推
05/02 21:30, , 53F
05/02 21:30, 53F
→
05/02 21:31, , 54F
05/02 21:31, 54F
推
05/02 23:35, , 55F
05/02 23:35, 55F
→
05/02 23:36, , 56F
05/02 23:36, 56F
→
05/02 23:38, , 57F
05/02 23:38, 57F
推
05/03 03:27, , 58F
05/03 03:27, 58F
推
05/03 10:03, , 59F
05/03 10:03, 59F
→
05/03 12:43, , 60F
05/03 12:43, 60F
推
05/03 13:04, , 61F
05/03 13:04, 61F
→
05/03 13:04, , 62F
05/03 13:04, 62F
→
05/03 13:38, , 63F
05/03 13:38, 63F
→
05/03 13:39, , 64F
05/03 13:39, 64F
→
05/03 13:40, , 65F
05/03 13:40, 65F
推
05/03 17:02, , 66F
05/03 17:02, 66F
推
05/03 17:16, , 67F
05/03 17:16, 67F
推
05/03 17:56, , 68F
05/03 17:56, 68F
推
05/03 20:57, , 69F
05/03 20:57, 69F
討論串 (同標題文章)