[標的] 2610華航
1. 標的:
2610 華航
本文只討論油價影響 不代表本文覺得可買或可賣
2610 q3航空用油約420萬桶 120美元/桶
10月平均價格約110元
(以上資料來自財訊周刊)
2610股本為520億
Q3eps為0.22
故如果假設一切情況沒變 只考慮油價變素
11月均價 設100元/桶
12月均價 設90元/桶
(目前航空燃油FOB是80元/桶)
2610Q4在航空用油上節省20美元*420萬桶*31新台幣/美元=26.04億台幣
但是由於避險 油價每跌5% 要損失1.4億新台幣
故如以平均油價來算 須計入損失的4.67億
所以Q4可以多賺21.37億
也就是說可以EPS多0.41元
結算下來 Q4可能獲利0.63元
(不算新買777折舊及虎航)_
2014全年可以轉虧為盈
EPS約 0.13元
目前股價14.6元
如果單看財報 華航真的是爛......
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正~面~能~量~(*⊙皿⊙)/★*"`'*-.,_,.-*'`"*-.,_☆
你怕了吧!!!!!
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2014Q3財報有提到 每下跌5%損失1.4億新台幣左右
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※ 編輯: tagso (114.42.146.37), 12/16/2014 19:34:49
※ 編輯: tagso (114.42.146.37), 12/16/2014 19:35:15
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又不是不會停損 我這樣估已經是把華航的人當白痴了哩....
※ 編輯: tagso (114.42.146.37), 12/16/2014 19:54:57
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