[問題] 一題機率

看板Statistics作者ntnulcy (要活就要Don't)時間18年前 (2007/07/25 00:08)推噓1(1推 0噓 2→)

留言3則, 1人參與討論串4/10 (看更多)

At a grocery stone, eggs come in cartons that hold a dozen eggs. Experience indicates that 78.5% of the cartons have no broken eggs, 19.2% have one broken eggs, 2.2% have two broken eggs, 0.1% have three broken eggs, and that the percentage of cartons with four or more broken eggs is negligible. An egg selected at random from a carton is found to be broken. What is the probability that this egg is the only broken one in the carton? 我的想法是...... P(A1)：沒有蛋破掉的機率：0.785 P(A2)：一個蛋破掉的機率：0.192 P(A3)：兩個蛋破掉的機率：0.022 P(A4)：三個蛋破掉的機率：0.001 P(A5)：拿一個蛋出來的事件機率：1/12 P(A5 ∩ A2) P(A5) P(A2│A5) 所求 = P(A5│A2) = ─────── = ───────── P(A2) P(A2) 1/12 ‧ 0.192 = ──────── = 1/12 0.192 不知道這樣做對不對？懇請達人賜教 Orz -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.122.218.49

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