Fw: [外電] 洛磯為何能暫居國西龍頭？

看板Rockies作者ygjhsu (杰)時間7年前 (2017/05/17 23:22)推噓5(5推 0噓 1→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1P6mt_fB ] 作者: ygjhsu (杰) 看板: MLB 標題: [外電] 洛磯為何能暫居國西龍頭？時間: Tue May 16 22:34:32 2017 洛磯這一個半月的好表現，想必讓很多球迷感到意外。但其實在季前， FanGraphs就有一篇文章，在討論洛磯隊今年其實是有機會衝擊外卡的, 有興趣的板友可以參考這篇: Maybe the Rockies Are Contenders in 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-the-rockies-are-contenders-in-2017/ 今天我想翻譯的這篇是最近剛出，針對Rockies這一個半月能持續站在國西首位所做的分析。令人意外的是，素來以打擊見長的洛磯隊，今年到目前的打擊表現，只能用差強人意形容。反而是靠著年輕先發投手，撐起了一片天，再加上去年季後大力補強的牛棚成功建起堅強的防線。而這甚至是在一二號投手(Gray&Bettis) 缺席的狀況下發生的事情！今年的洛磯能走到哪裡呢? 我個人雖然是洛磯迷，卻也不敢太過期待。畢竟前幾年開季火熱、明星賽後就鳥掉的例子也不是沒有。更何況道奇實力依然堅強，目前看來，還是分區冠軍的最大熱門。洛磯合理的預期，大概還是搶外卡吧！(希望被打臉以下正文開始： : Here’s How the Rockies Are Winning the West 洛磯為何能暫居國西龍頭？ : by Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2017 : The Rockies were this offseason’s popular dark horse. Not everybody agreed : on that, naturally, but if they did, then the Rockies wouldn’t have been a : very good dark-horse candidate. A team has to be rated low in order to be : underrated, and there was plenty of chatter the Rockies could surprise and : push for the wild card. The FanGraphs community determined the preseason : projections were too low on the club, so coming in, there was a certain amount : of hype. There was faith! Faith in the Colorado Rockies. 提到去年季後補強的黑馬，很多人會想到洛磯隊。當然，不是每個人都同意，但既然很多人都認為洛磯是黑馬，那洛磯其實就不算黑馬囉。因為，要當黑馬的條件之一，首先就是要被大部分人看扁，但時不時就能聽到洛磯其實有實力讓大家驚豔，有可能競逐外卡。 FanGraphs寫手們得承認，季前戰績預測時，的確低估了這支球隊(譯注:79W83L) 所以接下來，我們當然會有點矯枉過正囉！要多一點信心嘛！洛磯今年拿冠軍！ : Among the things that have happened: Ian Desmond got hurt. Tom Murphy got hurt. : Tony Wolters got hurt. Jon Gray got hurt. David Dahl got hurt. And Chad Bettis : got sick. Over the course of the last few months, the Rockies roster has been : beaten and battered. And it’s also managed to win 22 of 35 games. At this : writing, it’s the Rockies who are on top of the NL West, and it’s the Rockies : who have so substantially boosted their own chances of making the playoffs. : For the first time in so many years, the Rockies could be delivering on their : promise. There are two major reasons why they are where they are. 想想今年洛磯發生了哪些事：Ian Desmond受傷、Tom Murphy受傷、Tony Wolters受傷、 Jon Gray受傷、David Dahl受傷...更可怕的是Chad Bettis癌症復發，離開球場去做化療過去這幾個月，洛磯25人名單可說是命運多舛，不斷遭受打擊。即便如此，這支球隊依然在35場比賽中拿下了22場勝利。在我寫這篇文章的當下，國西龍頭正是科羅拉多洛磯隊。也正是洛磯這支球隊，去年季後大張旗鼓、招兵買馬來提高自己球隊進季後賽的機率。這麼多年來第一次，這支球隊有機會重返榮耀。為什麼他們今年可以這麼強呢？以下我們提出兩個主要原因。 : Interestingly enough, this doesn’t have a lot to do with the hitters. There : have been some bright spots, like the suddenly fascinating Mark Reynolds, but : the Rockies rank just 13th in runs per game, and that’s without adjusting for : ballpark. By wRC+, the Rockies are a woeful 27th, and although I’m open to : the idea that wRC+ is unfair to the Rockies’ bats, they still haven’t been : good, not overall. The story of the season to date is all about run prevention. 首先有趣的是，今年洛磯的強大跟打者並沒有太大的關係。的確，打線裡有些亮點，像是突然復活的風扇哥Mark Reynolds，但是攤開數據看，洛磯在大聯盟的場均得分排在第13 名，這還是沒有考慮球場校正的結果呢。如果以校正過的wRC+來看，洛磯打線只能在30支球隊裡排在第27位。雖然我覺得wRC+有可能對洛磯打者不太公平(譯注：應是指park factor稀釋了球員的成績？有錯請指正) 但Rockies打擊表現的確不太出色。本季洛磯精彩篇章全部都跟防止失分(投手)有關。譯注: wRC+數據計算與解讀可參考Xavier大的這篇好文 http://channel.pixnet.net/sport/carticle/baseball/Peavy/43927600 : On that side of things, the Rockies rank 14th in runs allowed per game. Taking : ballpark into account, the Rockies shoot all the way up to second in baseball : in ERA-. This is a staff that hasn’t had Gray or Bettis. It’s a staff that : intended to lean on Gray and Bettis. The reinforcements and the existing : support system have done the job, and as a critical component of this, there : are the grounders. The Rockies have been giving up grounders. 關於防止失分這方面，洛磯在全大聯盟場均失分排名第14。考慮球場因素的話，洛磯的 ERA-馬上就爆衝到MLB第二。這還是在一二號投手Gray, Bettis缺席的狀況下所繳出的成績呢！洛磯補上空位的投手跟球隊後勤的確做得很棒，其中一個關鍵的因素是，讓打者擊出滾地球。Rockies投手今年就是能不斷製造滾地球。 : Here’s how the Rockies’ pitching-staff grounder rate has progressed year to : year: 以下是洛磯逐年投手群製造滾地球的比例 (譯注：Ground Ball Percentage (GB%) = 滾地球 / 所有擊出的球，不考慮三振) http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/grounder-rate.png

: The team has reached a new high within the observed window, and this is the : highest team grounder rate in the game. Obviously, when you’re talking about : Coors Field, there’s reason to believe it’s better for a pitching staff to : keep the ball on the ground. Anything in the air is dangerous. Some credit goes : to Kyle Freeland. Also guys like Tyler Chatwood and Chris Rusin. Plenty of : grounders have been there, which makes the next plot all the more encouraging. 在目前球季才進行不到1/4的區間，這支球隊GB%創下隊史新高。同時，也是目前大聯盟團隊GB%最高的球隊。當然，當你的球隊有一半的比賽在褲兒濕球場Coors Field比賽時，有著能讓球兒留在地面上的投手群，當然是件好事囉。在這個球場，任何飛球都很危險在這傲人數據背後，一部份要歸功於Kyle Freeland，Tyler Chatwood跟長中繼Chris Rusin這三個投手。大量滾地球的出現，會讓下一張即將出現的圖表，變得更讓人振奮 : You might not recognize sOPS+ as a statistic. That’s something tracked at : Baseball-Reference, and it's essentially OPS+ within a given split. Let's look : at opponent production against the Rockies on grounders: 你們可能不認識 sOPS+這個數據，這是在BR網站上挖到的。簡單來說就是某種特定條件下的OPS+。來看看洛磯讓對手擊出滾地球狀況下的數據： http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/sops-grounders.png

: An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. Last year, when the Rockies got grounders, : they allowed an sOPS+ of 107. That means they were something like 7% worse than : average. This year, so far, that number has dropped to 71, meaning they've : been something like 29% better than average. To put this much more simply: The : Rockies have generated more grounders, and they’ve been much better at : turning those grounders into outs. sOPS+ 100是聯盟平均。去年，當洛磯投手讓對手擊出滾地球，對手的sOPS+是107。這可以看成這些投手的表現比平均差了7%。今年到目前為止，這個數據掉到了71，代表的意義好像是他們比平均好上29個百分點呢! 一言以蔽之，今年洛磯隊讓打者擊出更多的滾地球而且這些滾地球被轉化成出局數的機率也大大提高了。 : That’s a fun thing to explore. I’ll borrow some information from Baseball : Savant. Here’s where the Rockies have ranked in average ground-ball exit : velocity: 這是個值得探討的事情。我從Baseball Savant網站撈到的數據，呈現出洛磯隊這三年來被擊出滾地球的速度，在大聯盟球隊裡的排名： 2015: 19th 2016: 14th 2017: 2nd : To support that, from a different source, here’s where the Rockies have ranked : in ground-ball hard-hit rate: 為了證實這個進步，我從另一個網站取得了這三年洛磯隊被擊出強勁滾地球的比例，在大聯盟球隊裡的排名： 2015: 23rd 2016: 20th 2017: 2nd : Based on the evidence we have, the grounders have been more weakly hit. : I don't know how to explain that, necessarily, but that doesn't mean it's : wrong or impossible to keep up. For now, it's just a thing. And there's this : other interesting data point, regarding the defense. Better performance on : grounders would probably involve the pitchers and the defenders, right? Last : season, the Rockies ranked 8th in defensive shifts. This season, they rank 27th : They’re having fewer alignments being classified as shifted, and while that : might seem counterintuitive, last year the Cubs had fewer alignments classified : as a shift than anyone. It doesn’t mean defenders aren't still being used : well. The Rockies have had many of the same players, but they’ve done better, : and they’ve been positioned differently. So far, the synergy of it all has : been through the roof. 從證據來看，被擊出的滾地球的確變得不強勁了。如果硬要我說，我也不知道該怎麼解釋但這並不表示這是錯的，或是無法維持。現在你們就姑且看看吧！再說說另一個跟防守有關的有趣數據。看起來，洛磯隊讓對手擊出軟弱滾地球出局，這顯然跟投手野手都有關，對吧？上個賽季，洛磯佈陣次數排名大聯盟第8。至於這個球季呢，他們只排在吊車尾的27 這代表他們的防守站位比較不會極端到被判定為"佈陣"。這看起來好像跟我們想的不太一樣，但看看小熊隊，他們幾乎沒在佈陣的，佈陣次數比大聯盟任何一支球隊都少。我想說的是，佈陣少不代表防守球員沒被擺在正確的位置上。去年跟今年的洛磯球員，基本上沒有太大的變化，但他們被擺在了球場的不同地方，而且得到了更好的結果。到目前為止，這些零零總總的改變，造就了洛磯隊看似不可能的戰力提升。 : That’s one thing. One major reason why the Rockies are in first place is : because they've gotten grounders and swallowed them up. Then there's the matter : of the bullpen. The bullpen is the other major reason. I like to look at how : bullpens fare through the lens of Win Probability Added. Let’s examine some : year-to-year Rockies ranks, shall we? 這就是我想講的第一點。第一個目前讓洛磯能站在國西首位的主要原因：大量讓打者出局的滾地球。再來就要提到牛棚，牛棚就是另一個主要因素。在分析牛棚強度時，我喜歡從牛棚上場時，能讓球隊增加多少贏球機率(WPA)做為判定的標準。現在，就讓我們來看看這幾年洛磯隊的排名吧！來吧！ http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/bullpen-wpa-rank.png

: To make sure you're reading that correctly: Last year, the Rockies bullpen : had baseball’s worst WPA. It was the least valuable bullpen in the game. So : far this year, the Rockies bullpen has baseball’s best WPA. It’s been the : most valuable bullpen in the game, and it’s not even all that close. Because : it’s only May 11, it’s not like we can reach any firm conclusions, but in : case you’re curious, we’ve got WPA data stretching all the way back to 1974. : Only one team’s bullpen has ever gone from worst to first, and that was the : 2008 Rays. That Rays team ultimately advanced to the World Series. The Rockies : would have a very limited precedent, and a very promising one. 確保你沒看錯：去年洛磯的牛棚WPA這項數據在大聯盟敬陪末座，代表他們去年牛棚是全大聯盟最火的。今年到目前為止，他們卻在WPA拿下第一，也就是MLB最堅強的鐵牛陣。而且他們可是遙遙領先呢!當然現在才五月中，講這些還言之過早。但提供一個有意思的個案，當我們回顧歷史，從1974年之後，只有一支球隊的牛棚能從最後一名變成第一名，那就是 2008年的光芒隊(!!) 還記得那隻最後打進世界大賽的光芒隊嗎？這樣本數對洛磯來說不太夠，但卻又讓人非常期待呢！譯注：WPA大聯盟排名查不到是否為純RP數據?待更正 http://i.imgur.com/FvhYPIN.png

: The Rockies bullpen always looked intriguing. It was going to hinge on getting : healthy versions of Greg Holland, Jake McGee, and Adam Ottavino. So far, so : good, mostly. And the front office also threw Mike Dunn into the mix. Those : four relievers are the four relievers on the team who've entered with average : leverage indices of 1 or higher. I decided to do a league-wide browse, looking : at how all the teams have performed when narrowing down to only the relievers : meeting the same criteria. These are the relievers teams have trusted the most : We know the Rockies rank first in WPA to date. Just looking at the : higher-leverage guys, the Rockies relievers are 4th in ERA- and 4th in FIP-. : They’re also just 12th in xFIP-, so a few homers could make things worse, but : you can't assume homers until they happen. The group looks pretty good, and : it's already been great. 洛磯牛棚看起來豪猛啊！關鍵在於他們拿到的是健康版的Greg Holland, Jake McGee跟 Adam Ottavino (譯注:三個RP過去都蠻痛的Orz) 目前他們都能健康出賽，大致上來說啦! 除了這三個猛牛之外，Rockies FO還簽下了強力左牛Mike Dunn。這四位後援投手就是關鍵時刻會上場的RP囉！為了看看這個組合到底算不算強，我決定把調查範圍限縮到只在平均 LI>1的狀況下會上場的後援投手上。這些就是球隊最信賴的牛棚戰力了。我們前面提到，洛磯在WPA這項數據名列第一，如果只看關鍵時刻的牛棚戰力，他們分別在ERA-跟FIP-排在第四名, xFIP-卻只排在第12。所以這樣看來，如果洛磯牛棚多被尻幾發HR，他們的數據就不會這麼漂亮(代表FIP-與xFIP-趨勢相同)，不過，總不能假設投手會被打全壘打吧！總之，這些牛棚看起來很棒，他們現在已經很傑出了。關於xFIP- FIP- 同樣可參考這篇Xavier大的文章： http://peavy.pixnet.net/blog/post/43034428 : Performance through five weeks has only a limited relationship to performance : the rest of the way. Nothing for the Rockies is going to come easy, and : they're going to need to hit a little more than they have. They're probably : going to allow more home runs, and the bullpen is going to mix in the : occasional clunker. But you can see why things are looking up. The relievers : have delivered on their preseason promise. And despite the adversity with the : state of the starting rotation, the pitchers the Rockies have had have churned : out a bunch of grounders, and the defense has been good about handling them. : This is a Rockies team you have to take more seriously than others from the : past few seasons. They might not be all the way there yet. There's plenty of : room for improvement. But considering the storm they've had to weather, things : couldn’t have gone much better than they have. 五週的好表現跟整季好表現關係不大。對洛磯隊來說，沒有什麼事情是容易做到的，他們的打者必須打地更好一些。投手很有可能在主場被多打一些全壘打，牛棚也勢必會砸個幾場。但看完我們這篇文章，你應該能明白現在他們強在哪裡了。牛棚達成季前的期待。雖然先發輪值總要在逆境中求生，他們卻總能製造出想要的滾地球，守備也能順利處理。跟前幾年相比，這會是一隻你必須認真看待的Rockies。他們可能還離目標很遠，很有很多缺點待改進。但想想他們這一路上遭遇到的不順遂，我相信他們現在已經做的夠棒了。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.195.37.53 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1494945279.A.A4B.html ※ 編輯: ygjhsu (114.137.126.108), 05/16/2017 22:36:27

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