球員近況閒聊
1. 關於小蝴蝶,FG寫一篇文章
It’s Time to Buy Into Steven Wright
http://tinyurl.com/gm5ch3o
Steven Wright 文章大概兩個重點而已,其他的不用看,請點到連結裡直接看
影片與圖片,我加入一些個人看法
A. 小蝴蝶三振掉Chris Davis的跟Trumbo的影片,恩.軌跡真的蠻變態的..
B. 文章中的表,小蝴蝶的Z Contact全聯盟最低(76%),而第二低的是
Max Scherzer (79%),相對Z Contact比較低的幾個,Steven Wright的
O Contact卻出奇地高
以下個人看法: 原因應該是他的球飄忽不定,對打者來說,好壞球很難判斷,
且他這兩年的BABIP很低,去年是.252,今年則是.254,是否能夠維持這個低
有待觀察,但這麼低的BABIP原因可能在O Contact,好壞球不好判斷,打者
勉強揮好球帶外的球,即使打出去也打得很鳥
本季的小蝴蝶
O-Contact% Z-Contact%
69.8% 78.6%
Dickey單季最低O Contact跟Z Contact,正是拿CY的那年,小蝴蝶Z contact比DICKEY當年低
而O Contact Dickey當年比較好
Dickey CY年
O-Contact% Z-Contact%
66.9% 79.0%
但Dickey其它年O-Contact%都在72%以上, Z-Contact%都在83%以上(兩年例外,CY年與
2014年: 79.8%)
本季小蝴蝶,
IP: 82 BABIP: .254 SO:70 BB: 33 ERA: 2.09 FIP: 3.20 xFIP: 4.24 ERA+: 211
ERA 全聯盟排第六 , ERA+則是第四, 比他強的都是國聯投手
ERA
Kershaw: 1.52 Arrieta: 1.86 Bumgarner: 1.88 Lester: 1.89 Syndergaard: 1.996
Wright: 2.08
ERA+
Kershaw (250) Arrieta (215) Lester (212) Wright (211)
個人認為他本季ERA實在低得太誇張,雖說蝴蝶球通常ERA比FIP低,但Dickey跟老蝴蝶也沒
S. Wright差這麼多,不過,他或許不是王牌,應該至少頂3號先發,上看2號,這可能性不小
2. FG的打者WAR前30名,我們佔了5個
WAR(名次) wRC+(名次)
Xander Bogaerts 4.0 (1) 151(12)
David Ortiz 2.8 (10) 194(1)
Mookie Betts 2.8 (11) 128(47)
J. Bradley Jr. 2.7 (18) 155(9)
Dustin Pedroia 2.2 (29) 127(49)
其中XB的WAR無論BR或是FG的都海放第二名的鱒魚,WAR FG:3.7, BR:3.4,包括投手,全聯盟
只有聯盟第一投手Kershaw 4.6 比XB高, wRC+Ortiz也是樂勝第二名Daniel Murphy: 174
一大截,不過XB跟Ortiz的BABIP都非常高,XB: .408, Ortiz (.347, 生涯平均.300)
PS: C. Young wRC+ 157, WRA: 0.9,因為打席數過少就沒放上去了
3. 再來講爛的,CV有守備價值就不提
T. Shaw .266/.329/.455 wRC+ 108, 但是他3B守得不錯,以3B而言,現在的打擊數據也不
算差,只是我不懂為什麼不讓他調整一下,讓Josh Rutledge頂幾天
H. Ramirez .269/.337/.379,如同之前推文,我實在不看好他的未來,不是只有這季爛,
又尻不出長打,退化很明顯了,還是守沒啥價值的1B,恩,我們花在他跟熊貓身上一年就40M
以上
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/RedSox/M.1465827553.A.A0D.html
※ 編輯: alex710707 (111.253.204.123), 06/13/2016 22:24:41
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我不太了解寫的過程哪邊有問題,請指教
在寫這篇文之前有查一下Wakefield跟Dickey的數據
BABIP xFIP ERA O-Contact% Z-Contact%
生涯 Wakefield .274 4.76 4.41 64.9% 83.9%
生涯 Dickey .280 4.23 3.98 72.6% 83.6%
生涯 Wright .265 4.33 3.14 72.5% 78.6%
本季 Wright .254 4.24 2.09 69.8% 76.2%
說蝴蝶球投手能維持偏低BABIP應該是OK的,只是有幾個點需要注意
1. 其他兩個蝴蝶球投手BABIP生涯BABIP沒WRIGHT低的那麼誇張
PS: 另兩名蝴蝶球投手,P. Niekro跟C. Hough BABIP分別是.250跟
.270
2. Wakfield生涯有三個球季BABIP比目前Wright低,1995: .241
2002: .237 2008: .239,Dickey則是只有2015年低於.260 (該年.257)
3. 我對FIP與ERA之間的關係比較不懂,原本以為偏飛球的投手容易造成
ERA比FIP低(如J. Weaver跟M. Cain),但CJ Wilson跟Johnny Gueto也是
就讓我很困惑 ~.~, 只是蝴蝶球投手,無論Dickey, Wakefield,P. Niekro
C. Hough FIP都比ERA低,(如果Dickey不算前期蝴蝶球投不多的時期,相差會
更多)
蝴蝶球投手BABIP低正常,但S. Wright是否能像C. Hough一樣維持這麼低呢?
而ERA與FIP的差距,S. Wright ERA比FIP低太多,要說他ERA維持3以下還有可能,
但2.09 太過夢幻 @@
至於O-Contact% Z-Contact% 我確實不太懂這兩個數據
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