[Blog] 2009 NEW YORK YANKEES SEASON PREVIEW

看板NY-Yankees作者polebear (比平凡少一點)時間15年前 (2009/02/06 15:22)推噓28(28推 0噓 17→)

留言45則, 27人參與討論串1/4 (看更多)

數字是去年的成績，非預測原文網址：(http://tinyurl.com/bmhsz4) http://baseballsavant.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-new-york-yankees-season- preview.html 2009 NEW YORK YANKEES SEASON PREVIEW Friday, January 23, 2009 by Baseball Savant Another new season, another new set of previews. I'm hoping this season I can maybe shorten the previews up a little bit so I can write about more teams. I usually get all the competitive teams in the AL and then a couple in the NL which sort of disappoints me a bit. This season hopefully I can get them all in. At least that is what I'm hoping for! So the 2008 Yankees! It was a horrible disappointment no question. For the first time since 1994 in the strike shortened season the Yankees did not make the postseason. If you don't count '94 then this was the first time since 1993 the Yankees didn't play meaningful games in October. There was a lot of ink spilled about the demise of the Yankees last season, but I think in reality the Yankees had two problems that were somewhat magnified given how well the Rays ended up playing and the machine they call the Boston Red Sox maintaining their dominance over the rest of the American League. The first problem with New York was that GM Brian Cashman overplayed his hand in hoping Chamberlain, Hughes & Kennedy were going to fill in as the starters in New York. Granted, the Yankees had Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina in the rotation, but one of the reasons the Yankees passed on Johan Santana was their unwillingness to part ways with Hughes and/or Kennedy in the potential deal with the Twins. Instead the Twins went with the Mets and Santana was pitching in Queens instead of the Bronx. Unfortunately for Yankees Nation, the young pitchers experiement didn't work out. Ian Kennedy was a disaster at the big league level although he was once again dominant in AAA posting a 2.35ERA in Scranton over 12 starts, striking out 72 batters in 69IP while issuing just 17 walks and 4HR. Kennedy also missed about a month with shoulder problems. Phil Hughes wasn't much better. Hughes was only slightly better than Kennedy at the major league level although he posted good peripheral numbers in Scranton. Hughes missed 3-months with a rib fracture in 2008 which means in the last 2 seasons, Hughes has been on the DL for 3-months each. In 2007 he had hamstring problems which sidelined him for a month. Joba was dominant both in the bullpen and out of it, but he missed a month with his shoulder and was limited to just 100IP. Chien-Ming Wang missed 4-months with a foot injury and his injury problems are starting to be somewhat chronic. Losing a month in 2007 because of a hamstring. He missed 2 months in 2005 with shoulder ailments. Over the last 4 seasons, Wang has had only 1 healthy one! The Yankees came into 2008 with 6 potential starters (Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, Hughes, Kennedy & Chamberlain) and 4 of them missed significant time because of injury or ineffectiveness or both! This of course made New York reliant upon a cast of characters that included Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, Carl Pavano and Dan Giese. They even got a start from Kei Igawa. All told, the Yankees used 13 starting pitchers in 2008 which means the injury bug was simply killing New York and there was no backup plan at all to replace all the problems. Mussina & Pettitte did what they could. Mussina finished the year at 20-9 while Pettitte's 14-14 record belies a lot better peripheral numbers. They combined for 67 starts between them meaning that New York was quite possibly a 95-97 win team if they could have gotten ANY help from their starting pitchers. The other problem with New York was their offense. The Yankees ranked 7th in the A.L. in RS/G. No matter what anyone tells you, that is a problem for the Bombers. New York could have masked some of their deficiencies had they hit like we thought they would heading into 2008, but instead the offense flopped and that combined with bad starting pitching produced a nightmare for Yankees fans everywhere. Posada missed two-thirds of the season. Cano got off to a hellacious start. Matsui missed time. Melky Cabrera was awful. Father Time is catching up with Derek Jeter and A-Rod had an even-numbered offensive year instead of a usual odd-numbered MVP year. Posada's replacement, Jose Molina, posted a 51 OPS+ meaning the Yankees were likely playing with two automatic outs in the lineup with Molina & Cabrera for most of the season. When the Yankees went out and got Ivan Rodriguez, he too posted an OPS+ of 51 and Brett Gardner was worse than Cabrera offensively if you can actually believe that. Even if you are the Yankees, it's too difficult to play with 7 offensive players in the lineup instead of 9 given the vagaries of the AL East. And thus we come to 2009. Despite protests that the Yankees overspent, the bottom line is that the Yankees are likely to have a lower payroll in 2009 than they had in 2008. Out goes Jason Giambi at 1B replaced by Mark Teixeira who should give a little better offensive production while simultaneously giving great defense, which is something Giambi couldn't do. In a masterful move, Brian Cashman didn't trade away any of his pitching prospects so coming into the fold in 2009 were CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett to go along with Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain and Wang with Andy Pettitte still being a possibility if both he and the Yankees can work out a contract in the interim. Dan Giese still provides some depth as does Alfredo Aceves. That's potentially 9 starting pitchers competing for 5 spots in spring training. It's been a huge offseason for the Yankees. Let's now look at the players. 2009 YANKEES STARTING LINEUP C-Jorge Posada: 268/364/411; 3HR, 13-2B, 22RBI, 7.0AB/BB, 0SB, 103OPS+ Shoulder woes killed the follow up season to his career year in 2007 in which he posted a career best 154 OPS+! The big question regarding Posada is his healthy. Before 2008, he had played at least 137 games in 8 consecutive seasons, but Jorge will be age-37 this season so he's WAY beyond the magic number of 30 for catchers. His career got off to a late start so that's helped him to a degree but age catches up to all of us. What puts New York in a jam is the 4-years/$52.4 million contract they gave him before the 2008 season that runs until 2011! That's thru age-39 baby! Crazy, but given the market for backstops, maybe not outrageous. Either way, what we can safely say is that Posada isn't repeating any numbers from 2007 or 2003. However, he's not likely to repeat his 2008 numbers either. If healthy, Posada will settle into a 110-118 OPS+. If he can give New York 135-140 games behind the plate that would be a godsend but don't discount the effect his shoulder can have on his defense and his power output. He's on the decline, the shoulder just might have made the slope a bit steeper than we expected. 1B-Mark Teixiera: 308/410/552; 33HR, 41-2B, 121RBI, 5.9AB/BB, 2SB, 151OPS+ He's the best 1B in the game not named Albert Pujols. Let's put aside the question of whether anybody is worth 8-years/$180 million. There are noticeably differences between Teixeira and Jason Giambi. The first is that Teixeira is a much better defensive 1B than the Giambino. The second is that New York has Teixeira from ages 29-36 whereas they had Giambi from ages 31-37. They get Teixeira off the books a year earlier and also get 2 more peak years from Teixeira than they would have gotten from Giambi. It's significant in my opinion. New York essentially paid Giambi 8-years/$142 million so basically they are giving Teixeira 38 more million for two extra years up front and one less on the backside with no injury history. Giambi missed 2 half seasons so if you think he got 7-years/$142 million then he averaged $20.3 million to Teixeira's $22.5. Bottom line for me is that Teixeira gives New York the thumper to go along with A-Rod. You can probably pencil Teixeira in for 30-40HR, 110-130RBI and a 950-1000 OPS for the lifetime of the contract. 2B-Robinson Cano: 271/305/410; 14HR, 35-2B, 72RBI, 23.0AB:BB, 2SB, 86OPS+ Cano had a brutally bad April hitting 151/211/236 which killed his overall production for the season. You take April out and Cano hit .297. What is somewhat worrisome is that Cano didn't walk as much in 2008 as he did in 2007. He's not exactly a patient hitter, but then again Cano usually has his contact% in the 90th range so he's not exactly striking out a lot either. He'll only be 26 years old in 2008 which means he's coming into his peak years. He'll probably put in a year similiar to 2007 which is good enough for an OPS+ of 120. Cano is also a helluva defensive 2B giving New York a very good defensive right side of the infield with Cano & Teixeira. Jeter is a black hole at SS but A-Rod isn't horrible at 3B. The Yankees defense is often maligned but it isn't THAT bad. Sure Jeter can't go up the middle but come on! 3B-Alex Rodriguez: 302/392/573; 35HR, 33-2B, 103RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 18SB, 150OPS+ I'm always amazed at A-Rod's "off" years in which he posts OPS+ numbers in the 150s! Since 2003, A-Rod has done a pretty good job of coming alive every other year in odd-numbered years. He won the MVP in 2003, 2005 & 2007 while having supposed "off" years in 2004, 2006 & 2008. If that trend continues, expect A-Rod to take down his 4th MVP trophy in 2009 with yet another monster year to break in the House That George Built. I think it's interesting to note that A-Rod missed about 3-weeks last season with a quadriceps injury. That's the first injury he's had in 8-years! Interesting because A-Rod was 32-years of age then and he'll be 33 in 2009 meaning he's out of his peak years. A-Rod was also slightly less patient in 2008 as he has been in the past when it comes to drawing walks. That was really the difference for Rodriguez. Those will be two things to watch going forward. Are injuries going to become chronic? Can he get back to established level of selectivity at the plate? SS-Derek Jeter: 300/363/408; 11HR, 25-2B, 69RBI, 11.5AB:BB, 11SB, 102OPS+ Diving into the deeper stats with Jeter you find a few things. The first is his HR/FB percentage. It was 13%, 17%, and 15% from 2004-2006 respectively. From 2007-2008 it stood at 9% each year. What that means is fewer and fewer of Jeter's fly balls are going out of the park. He's not Ryan Howard, but it shows that Jeter's power is betting sapped and that his 2007 or 2008 numbers aren't flukes given that they've been the same over the last 2 seasons. His 11 bombs is the lowest total he's hit in a "full" season since 1997 which was his 2nd full season in the league. His 25 doubles is also tied for the least amount of doubles he's ever hit in a full season in the majors. The other thing you see from Jeter is his walk rate is down the last two years than it was from 2005-2006. His AB:BB was 8.5 & 9.0 in 2005 & 2006, but raised to 11.4 and 11.5 in 2007 & 2008. Jeter's LD% was down last season from the previous two and his BABIP was down. That all portends to a declining player which isn't really surprising given that Jeter is going to be entering his age-35 season. Jeter's defense also went back to being brutal after having a decent 3-year run from 2005-2007. His Rate2 was 90 meaning he cost New York 15 runs alone with his defense in 2008. Some people talk about Jeter's quest to get to 4,000 hits but that is HARD to imagine. Just to get to 4200 he'd need 8 more season of at least 200 hits in every season and he'd still be 100+ short of Pete Rose's record. In fact, I think he'll be entering his age-38 season still shy of 3,000 hits to be honest. The Yankees have a serious dilema on their hands with Jeter. On the one hand how can you imagine him putting on a different uniform? On the other hand, he's a brutal defensive player who is aging that can't switch to either 3B or 1B because of Teixeira & A-Rod. He doesn't have the power to carry a corner OF position and he probably doesn't have the wheels to play CF and I think the Yankees would like Austin Jackson to take that spot anyway. That leaves the possibility of replacing Cano but do the Yankees really want to cut a player entering his prime so Jeter can slide over to 2B? Putting him at DH is not exploiting that inefficiency in the market so what is New York left to do? Jeter certainly still has skills left in the tank. He should be able to hit 300/360/400, but he'll be 37 in 201o when his contract is up with New York. It's going to be interesting to be sure. LF-Hideki Matsui: 294/370/424; 9HR, 17-2B, 45RBI, 8.9AB:BB, 0SB, 108OPS+ Godzilla is out of the Bronx after this season. Over the past 3-years, Matsui has been injured in 2 of them so I guess we'll see if he can stay healthy this year. The Yankees have positioned themselves OK in the OF with guys like Matsui, Damon, Cabrera, Gardner, Swisher and Nady in case a lof them get hurt or are ineffective. Right now Matsui would have to be the odds on favorite to play LF everyday for New York. I like Matsui as a player and think New York's offense has a different dynamic without him in the middle. When healthy, Matsui is a selective .300 hitter who'll hit 25-30HR, grab 100RBI and post a 120-130 OPS+. That's some production baby when you consider most people think Matsui is one of New York's 2nd tier offensive producers. Interestingly enough, I've read where Matsui is an avid porn collector who has an extensive library of the stuff. These are reasons why you probably don't want to know about these guys' personal lives! CF-Johnny Damon: 303/375/461; 17HR, 27-2B, 71RBI, 8.7AB:BB, 29SB, 118OPS+ Damon is another one coming off the books after 2009. In a lot of ways I think 2009 is the last season for New York to get that elusive championship they tried so vehemently to buy when they started signing everyone. They went through Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, Gary Sheffield, Javier Vazquez & Alex Rodriguez and still haven't won a World Series. Most of those players are gone but the last vestiges are Damon & Matsui who are also gone after this season. It makes you wish Mussina could have stuck around for one more season. Still, Damon moves back to CF for New York because Melky Cabrera is terrible and Austin Jackson isn't ready. Damon's skill set remains pretty much the same as it always has been. If his BABIP runs around 33%-35% then he'll hit 305-315 and if it's around 30%-31% then he'll hit around 290. Either way he's going to give you some pop from the leadoff position, good OBP% numbers and 25-30 steals. Austin Jackson has a year in Scranton to work it out. Then he hits the big time in 2010 as Damon probably seeks his final contract. RF-Xavier Nady: 305/357/510; 25HR, 37-2B, 97RBI, 14.2AB:BB, 2SB, 128OPS+ I wouldn't be fooled by the overall numbers. Nady put up a 144 OPS+ in Pittsburgh but came down to a 105 OPS+ in New York. In fairness to Nady, this was the first time the guy has been completely healthy in his entire career and a look at his prospect reports show that everyone and their aunt thought this guy had tremendous talent. On the other hand, Nady is going to be 30-years old and he doesn't exactly walk much. That means Nady is going to have to stay healthy, hit .300 and bash out 50+ extra base hits to have value at a corner position. The Yankees can probably get away with having a hole in RF, but who knows? DH-Nick Swisher: 219/332/410; 24HR, 21-2B, 69RBI, 6.1AB:BB, 3SB, 92OPS+ I've read reports that Swisher didn't really like Chicago or Ozzie Guillen for that matter. I can't say I blame him on either front. Chicago tries to be a poor's man New York City and Guillen is probably the last manager in baseball I'd want to play for. Still, Swisher's skill set remained completely intact despite a season that looked brutal. I think it mostly came down to Swisher's BABIP. From 2005-2007, Swisher established a BABIP of .288. In 2008 that number dropped to .251. If Swisher's BABIP had gone to .288 and all things remained equal then here is what we'd see: Actual: 219/332/410; 24HR, 21-2B, 69RBI, 6.1AB:BB, 3SB, 92OPS+ Adjusted: 249/362/461; 27HR, 24-2B, 77RBI, 6.1AB:BB, 3SB, 109OPS+ It's still a bad year given Swisher's previous seasons, but it's not quite as bad. Hitting .250? You're better than that! He's still just 28-years old and he can play a variety of positions so Swisher definitely gives the Yankees some flexibility. If they are looking to trade one player, they'd be better served to trade Nady instead of Swisher simply because of Swisher's contract status. 2009 YANKEES BENCH C -Jose Molina : 216/263/313; 3HR, 17-2B, 18RBI, 22.3AB:BB, 0SB, 51OPS+ IF-Angel Berroa ; 230/304/310; 1HR, 13-2B, 16RBI, 11.3AB:BB, 0SB, 62OPS+ OF-Brett Gardner: 228/283/299; 0HR, 5-2B, 16RBI, 15.9AB:BB, 13SB, 53OPS+ OF-Melky Cabrera: 249/301/341; 8HR, 12-2B, 37RBI, 14.3AB:BB, 9SB, 68OPS+ IF-Cody Ransom : 302/400/651; 4HR, 3-2B, 8RBI, 7.2AB:BB, 0SB, 170OPS+ They Yankees don't exactly have a great bench. Molina is a solid defensive catcher but he's an out-making machine as a hitter. Why the Yankees signed Berroa is beyond me although I guess he provides some depth behind Jeter although Ransom does too so why sign a guy that can't hit? Gardner showed some serious speed on the bases last season stealing 13 and getting caught just once, but he struckout 30 times in 147AB. You give the guy 550AB at the top of the lineup and Gardner strikesout 113 times! I don't know where Cabrera fits in to be honest. He simply can't hit enough to be a regular player and with Austin Jackson hitting the scene in 2010, there is no place for Cabrera to play. Ransom is going to be 33-years old in 2009 so his best days are behind him even with that 43AB explosion for New York last season. At best the Yankees cannot rely on their bench at all. At worst a couple of these guys are made regular players and the Yankees are dealing with a lineup of 6-7 hitters instead of the usual 9! That didn't play in 2008 and it won't play in 2009 either. OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE NEW YORK OFFENSE? It is still a beast of an offense. The Yankees led the AL in RS/G in 2007, but fell to 7th in 2008 because of injury. I think they head into 2009 with much the same hype as they had going into 2007 or 2008 but will need to stay injury free again. Adding Teixeira is a huge upgrade in my opinion for the Bombers. The Giambino is comparable but Tex is heading into his peak years and hitting in front A-Rod should do wonders for him. Look at what happened to Chipper Jones' numbers with Teixeira in the lineup. A-Rod is probably in for one of his odd-numbered MVP years and I also think Jeter, Cano and Swisher rebound a bit. The big question for a team like this is health. While it wouldn't kill them, losing Posada and Matsui again would be tough because it messes up the lineup. Molina would have to step in which isn't great and with Matsui out, it would probably force Damon to LF and probably Cabrera back to CF. Still, the Yankees have a top-3 offense that only injury could derail. 2009 YANKEES STARTING ROTATION #1-C.C. Sabathia: 253IP, 7.9H/9, 8.9K/9, 4.3K:BB, 2.1BB/9, 0.7HR/9, 1.115WHIP, 162ERA+ The best pitcher in the game just coming into this prime years. Sabathia is a beast if he can keep up his current levels of production. An unlucky start to his 2008 campaigned and a mid-season trade probably wrecked his chances for a 2nd straight Cy-Young award, but his overall numbers at the end of the season were the best in baseball. I'm not sure there are negatives for Sabathia. He's a durable leftie who thows 94mph with elite control that keeps the ball in the yard. He has a sweet slide piece that dives in on righties and a changeup about 8mph slower than his fastball. He's big, durable and powerful with tremendous makeup. The only negative with Sabathia is his workload. If you include the postseason, he's pitched well over 500IP the last 2-seasons. He was handled gingerly in Cleveland so I think it's OK to take off the kid gloves. Sabathia got the big contract and I think he made the right decision in coming to New York given his star potential. All in all, the big question for Sabathia is his decision to have either played for the contract which he received, or play for his place in history which could be downright amazing. We'll see his true character in 2009. #2-A.J. Burnett: 221.3IP, 8.6H/9, 9.4K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.5BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.342WHIP, 105ERA+ Burnett combines 95mph heat with a sweet deuce that if it's working makes him almost unhittable. That 4.05ERA last season is more in line with a 3.30ERA given his peripherals. It's all about the injuries with this guy. He simply won't pitch unless he feels 100% which is something baseball players almost never are. Most pitchers play through some discomfort but not Burnett. He got another huge contract from the Yankees and it remains to be seen what he'll do. His record against the AL East is incredible. Against Toronto, Boston, Baltimore & Tampa Bay, Burnett is 20-5 with a 3.29ERA in 241IP! If he's right he's one of the top-5 best pitchers in the league and there is no questioning the nastiness of his "stuff". It's a big gamble for New York but big risks are the ones that end up with big rewards. #3-Joba Chamberlain: 100.3IP, 7.8H/9, 10.6K/9, 3.0K:BB, 3.5BB/9, 0.4HR/9, 1.256WHIP, 171ERA+ On talent alone he's the best pitcher on the Yankees staff. Just take a look at his peripherals and realize this kid is still only going to be 23-years old in 2009. Joba started out in the bullpen last season and posted a 2.28ERA in 20 appearances holding opponents to a .558 OPS! He was then given a rotation spot where he was handled with caution. All he did in 12 starts is go 3-1 with a 2.76ERA striking out 74 hitters in 65.3IP and holding opponents to a .641 OPS. He then went on the DL for a month but when he came back he was put in the bullpen again and posted a 2.38ERA in 10 appearances holding opponents to a .593 OPS. Joba has 4-pitches but works mainly off his fastball/slider combo. He already keeps the ball in the yard but if he can get his control down to 2.0-2.5 walks per 9 then look out. If he throws 200IP he's a 20-game winner & Cy Young winner just waiting to happen. If he lowers the walk rate we are talking greatest pitcher in the game. #4-Chien-Ming Wang: 95IP, 8.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.5K:BB, 3.3BB/9, 0.4HR/9, 1.316WHIP, 109ERA+ Wang can easily be described as the forgotten man in this rotation. He's gone from #1 starter to #4 or maybe even #5 if Pettitte returns despite going 38-13 from 2006-2007 and starting the 2008 season 8-2 before a foot injury sustained running the bases ended his season prematurely. Now he's mentioned as a back-end starter and trade bait for the Bombers! The foot injury has nothing to do with his pitching. He brings a hard 92-93mph sinker combined with his slide piece to induce and absurd number of groundballs. He keeps the ball in the yard and doesn't walk a ton of batters. It's not #1 starter material but it's easily #2-#3 if he goes 200IP which is likely. That 3.3BB/9 is concerning but out of line with his previous levels. If he's healthy apparently he wins 19-games a season. #5-Andy Pettitte: 204IP, 10.3H/9, 7.0K/9, 2.9K:BB, 2.4BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.412WHIP, 98ERA+ Pettitte was a lot better than those numbers indicate. His BABIP was a brutal .339 compared to the AL's average of .304 meaning that H/9 was way too high. I'm actually penciling in Pettitte because the Yankees are probably going to get a deal done with the lefty. It simply wouldn't seem right not having him in the rotation. Pettitte is actually a pretty darn valuable commodity. He still strikesout 7 a game and he doesn't walk hitters or is prone to the gopher ball. If you give this guy some run support he'll win 16-18 games for you easily. Having him as your #4-#5 starter is somewhat ridiculous. Bringing back Pettitte serves other fuctions for New York in the long term as well. Bringing Pettitte back essentially keeps either Hughes or Kennedy out of the rotation for another season. It also pushes Wang to the #3 slot and moves Chamberlain back to the #5 slot which will mean a lot lower expectations and a lighter workload. SP-Phil Hughes: 34IP, 11.4H/9, 6.1K/9, 1.5K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.706WHIP, 67ERA+ SP-Ian Kennedy: 39.7IP, 11.3H/9, 6.1K/9, 1.0K:BB, 5.9BB/9, 1.1HR/9, 1.916WHIP, 54ERA+ SP-Dan Giese: 43.3IP, 8.1H/9, 6.0K/9, 2.1K:BB, 2.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.223WHIP, 126ERA+ 2009 YANKEES BULLPEN CL-Mariano Rivera: 70.7IP, 5.2H/9, 9.8K/9, 12.8K:BB, 0.8BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 0.665WHIP, 317ERA+ LP-Damaso Marte: 65IP, 7.2H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.6BB/9, 0.7HR/9, 1.200WHIP, 105ERA+ RP-Brian Bruney: 34.3IP, 4.7H/9, 8.7K/9, 2.1K:BB, 4.2BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 0.990WHIP, 242ERA+ RP-Jon Albaladejo: 13.7IP, 9.9H/9, 8.5K/9, 2.2K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.7HR/9, 1.537WHIP, 112ERA+ RP-Jose Veras: 57.7IP, 8.1H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.2K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.1HR/9, 1.405WHIP, 124ERA+ RP-Edwar Ramirez: 55.3IP, 7.2H/9, 10.3K/9, 2.6K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 1.1HR/9, 1.229WHIP, 114ERA+ LP-Phil Coke: 14.7IP, 4.9H/9, 8.6K/9, 7.0K:BB, 1.2BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 0.682WHIP, 724ERA+ RP-David Robertson: 30.3IP, 8.6H/9, 10.7K/9, 2.4K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.451WHIP, 83ERA+ This is a great bullpen. In the Hardball Times 2009 Baseball Annual, they broke down each team into their WPA (Wins Probability Added) according to lineup, rotation and bullpen. New York's 8.3 WPA for their bullpen was 2nd best in the entire major leagues behind Tampa Bay's 9.3 and tied for 2nd with Philadelphia's 8.3. That means that the Yankees bullpen added 8 more wins than average. What's great about the Yankees is that they won't have to deal with contributions from either LaTroy Hawkins or Kyle Farnsworth so it's more like addition through subtraction with those guys. On the other hand, the Yankees probably aren't going to get another year out of Rivera they did in 2009 and we'll still have to see how guys like Bruney, Coke, Robertson and Albaladejo hold up over an entire season. What we can say about this pen is that every pitcher is dominant. Not one of them strikesout less than 8 hitters per 9IP. Some of them still have issues with their control but for the most part this Yankees pen is very solid if not as celebrated as you might expect. There was a lot wrong with the 2008 New York Yankees, but one thing that wasn't wrong was the bullpen. In fact, it was the brightest spot on the team. There is no better closer in the game than Rivera. Veras, Ramirez & Marte make a tremendous trio in getting the ball to Rivera. Bruney, Coke and Albaladejo make up the other guys most likely in the pen. If Bruney can walk fewer batters he's an 8th inning ace in the making. Coke is pretty interesting. He's a lefty who has been a starter his entire career and last year started at AA Trenton. We went 9-4 in 20 starts with a 2.51ERA but when he was promoted to AAA Scranton, the Yankees stuck him in the bullpen where he made 14 appearances, striking out 22 hitters in 17IP. That got him to the Bronx where he put up incredible numbers for a 15 inning cup of coffee. Robertson might be the odd man out but the prospect spent half his time between AA and AAA. Here are his ratios at both destinations: Robertson: 53.7IP, 4.7H/9, 12.9K/9, 3.3K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.2HR/9, 0.950WHIP, 1.68ERA If you are looking for the heir apparent to Rivera, Robertson might be your guy. I think at the major league level right now he's at least a 7th inning guy if not a dominant set up man to Rivera which sort of makes you wonder if David Robertson isn't to Mariano Rivera was Rivera was to John Wetteland when Rivera was coming up. Robertson might start the season in Scranton but I'm not sure how much longer New York can keep him there. He's listed at 5-11 which may be the reason he's not more highly touted, but Tom Gordon is 5-9 and he's been in the league for 20 years and has 3-seasons of at least 27 saves. OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 YANKEES I don't think there is much argument to be made that this is the best team in baseball at the moment. There really isn't a weakness on the team although I think New York could see significant problems if the big contracts don't work out. My predicition is 1st Place in the AL East for 2009. I think the offense will be tremendous with the addition of Teixeira in the middle of the lineup. I also think the bullpen will once again be solid which only leaves the starting lineup. There are a ton of question marks regarding the rotation, BUT the talent is obviously there. I really think Pettitte gets it done with New York so he'll be on board giving New York some good depth. It'll really big a big year for the Yankees. I think a lot of questions will be answered for guys like Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes & Kennedy. The Yankees have a lot invested going forward in Sabathia & Burnett. We'll see how it turns out, but for now on paper, this is the best team in baseball. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.104.204.18

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taller

02/06 15:25, , 1^F

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unicotexalex

02/06 15:32, , 2^F

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Kennle

02/06 15:39, , 3^F

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