[外絮] 從數據分析黃蜂的熱身賽

看板NBA作者sasolala (可惡的北韓)時間8年前 (2015/10/26 23:27)推噓24(28推 4噓 20→)

留言52則, 34人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/nmmpmvo 原文簡單翻譯 With 7-1 record, 87.5% win percentage, Hornets ranked number 1 in the league at the end of preseason games. That should mean something, right? right? 熱身賽7-1 87.5%的勝率肯定代表了什麼!! By eye test, this team improved massively offensively, and we are shooting tons of 3s, with good percentage, is that the only reason we are winning? 可以看出這球隊提高了進攻火力在三分球上得到了火力支援這就是為什麼贏了 To answer these questions, I pulled all the teams preseason data from NBA.com, and used the parallel coordinate plot to graph some major parameters to visualize the trend. So for this graph, it take each category numbers and normalized the highest number to 100% and the lowest number to 0%, thus each category is graphed as a percentile among all 30 teams. Each team is connected with a line, and the profile of the line provides an easy way to spot the interesting trend. The highlighted line is Hornets. 為了解釋這些問題從nba網站上找出熱身賽的數據發現了一些有趣的現象 PF: personal foul; PFD: personal foul drawn; FBPs: fast break points; PITP: points in the paint. Couple of things we could see easily: Given that Hornets improved their ball movement and player movement, they are not increasing their pace. At 98.91, it was only a slight increase over last season's 95.3. And that was the bottom 10 in preseason. A lot of people said Clifford was building his defense on the slowed down pace, and I personally find it interesting that Clifford could improve the offensive look without drastically change his defensive philosophy. 可以看出場均98.91分比上賽95.3 只有略增加幾分這在熱身上是倒數第十名很多人說因為Clifford教練放慢腳步去防守但作者卻認為是改善了進攻而不是只有改變了防守方式 Hornets does shoot more 3s, with 25.6 3PA a game, it was not ranked the top half in the league, however, consider the low pace and relatively low FGA of the team, that many 3s was pretty high percentage of total shots Hornets are taking. It also helped that Hornets are shooting at high efficiency with 36.1% which ranked 6th in preseason. 黃蜂射了更多的三分場均得到25.6分左右這也幫助了黃蜂在熱身賽排名第六命中率36.1% In terms of rebound, the team is performing the same strategy, that we are still the best in terms of defensive rebounds, and gives up the offensive rebounds, and don't have much 2nd chance points. 在籃板方面，鞏固了防守籃板，卻也犧牲了進攻籃板很少得到第二波進攻的機會 Hornets is good at drawing fouls, but not giving personal fouls. The team is the most stingy team in giving out PF. They don't have too much TOs, and don't force opponent TOs either, thus lowest steal/game. Looks like the team is playing a very disciplined and conservative way of defense. They don't have much fast break points either, I do hope they could improve there as the season goes. 黃蜂隊擅常造犯規卻很很少給對方個人犯規尤其是PF 可看出球隊防守相當有紀律並且採取較保守的方式沒什麼快攻自然就沒有冒險但作者仍希望能夠有效的改善少快攻的缺點 Compare to the above average Offensive Rating, I'm actually more impressed and surprised by the second best in Defensive Rating. With MKG injury, that number obviously is very important and definitely the area you want the team carry over to regular season. 作者也相當驚訝在少了MKG 防守的效率仍相當不錯也希望能夠延續到開季 Oh, I thought the team had improved in assist number, but apparently they didn't, 19.30 per game has nothing to brag about, and I have no idea what happened to the points in the paint, is that because we have more pick and pop guy than P&R player? 而原本以為球隊會增加助攻數實際上卻沒有每場比賽19.30 per 沒什麼好炫耀的不知道內線發生了什麼事情沒什麼得到助攻作者猜測會不會是P&R導致的 When we look at the similar plot when we take the opponents number, that gives an good indication about our defense. When Hornets is taking 42% FG% and giving out only 40.6% FG%, that's a good thing. 黃蜂隊平均整體命中率在42% 而且給予對手只有40.6%的命中率 When Hornets is holding opponents to 25% 3FG%, that's an amazing thing. Took me a while to confirm that I'm actually get the number right. I mean, is that real? In preseason, Pistons, Kincks, Magics and Bulls are all shooting 3s in top 10 efficiency, Clippers are 34.5%, and still top half. Hornets must be doing something right to hold them at 24.9% for all 8 games. 而且黃蜂死守的對方的三分投籃讓對手只有25%的命中率這是一個amazing的事情作者心想這是真的嗎? 在這熱身賽活塞尼克魔術跟公牛的三分是排名在前十名的而快艇是34.5%也是在前段所以黃蜂必須做些什麼才能讓對手三分在八場比賽壓低在24.9%的命中率 Hornets is also giving out the lowest FTA, which is the most efficient shots. So Hornets is not giving out FTA, and limiting opponents 3s efficiency, definitely a nice way to defend. We do give out a bit more fast break points, and also points in the paint. 黃蜂給予對手很多的快攻機會還有內線得分機會 RA: restricted area; ITP: in the paint (non-restricted area); MR: Mid range; LC3: Left corner 3; RC3: Right corner 3; AB3: Above the break 3. When we look at the team shooting numbers, that's when I start to get confused: 當我們看著球隊的命中率卻也感覺到疑惑 Hornets is taking less shots and shooting not as good in the restricted area. They took a good amount of shots in the paint, but connected at a relatively low percentage rate. 黃蜂在禁區射的很少而且命中不高油漆區射的很多但命中率較低 Hornets is taking a good amount of shot at mid range, and then shooting at the league best percentage of 44.3%. 黃蜂比較好的投籃在中距離得到全聯盟最好的44.3%命中率 Hornets is not taking much corner 3s, and also shoot pretty bad in corners, but they took a lot of above the break 3s and with a much higher efficiency there. 黃蜂沒有採取了底角三分而且投得相當糟糕但投了很多弧頂三分卻得到了高效率 That's just so against the Morey Ball! Where teams like Rockets are ditching mid range shots, and shot tons of corner 3s, and drive to the paint by all means. Yet Hornets somehow shot only 31% in the paint and 44.3% in the mid range. Same with the 3 pointers. Not sure whether that's because the coach had more plays end up open spot there or people just shoots better above the break on this team, theoretically, corner 3s are shoter 3s, which is easier to take though. 這是相當違反莫雷的藍球火箭放棄了中距離投大量的三分球或者進攻籃下但是黃蜂卻31%在油漆區投籃中距離44.3 三分球則相同。不是很確定教練本就指定那個位置投三分還是球隊在弧頂投的較好理論上底角是最短的三分也就是最容易投中的 Still, the 19.9 restricted area shot attempt is kind of low there, the Rockets and Celtics were taking 31.6 attempts there, which is 50% more than us. Even with so-so efficiency of 55%, that's equivalent to 36.7% 3P% in eFG%, thus still the most efficient shot other than FT. And it is way easier to have a consistent 55% shot in the restricted area than achieving a 37% 3pt all the time. 但是 19.9%禁區出手仍然太低了火箭跟賽爾提克都有31.6%的出手率比黃蜂還多一半 When we look at our opponent shooting numbers, it is pretty encouraging: 但當看到對手的投籃數據卻讓人相當開心 We are doing a really good job defending 3pt shots. Across the board, we are giving out less 3pt attempts, and force them to take it with very low efficiency. 黃蜂在防守三分上做了相當好的工作整個排行榜上讓對手三分出手最少並且讓對手投射三分的效率最低 We give out the most mid range shots compare to other teams, which, not necessary the bad thing, consider that are teams don't even want to take those. And to help it, we are holding them to shot at only 37% there. In the paint area is okay, but our defense in the restricted area is definitely the area that could use some improvement. 比起其他球隊黃蜂壓迫對手更多的中距離跳投但這不是壞事考慮到很多球隊不喜歡這個點出手而且把他限制在37%的命中率油漆區的得分還不錯但是在禁區內的防守卻是要改進的 Okay, preseason is not regular season, yet the numbers could still gives us some indication. We might not be able to hold our opponent to 24% 3pt shot through out the season, at least we do have some confidence that this team has the capability of defending 3pts shots very well. 不過熱身賽終究還不是正式比賽這些數據也只是新球季的指標不可能每次都把對方限制在24%的三分命中但至少證明了球隊在三分線上的防守是相當有力的 Overall, I'm very happy with the team's offense in the preseason, but even more happy with the team defense even without MKG on the floor. And can't wait for the season to start. 總結來說作者相當滿意這個熱身賽的表現而且滿意的是防守上的表現尤其在少了MKG 還能夠表現優異已經等不及球隊開季了 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.133.252.92 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1445873267.A.5DC.html

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