[討論] 馬刺才是籃球的Moneyball
自從Moneyball出來,有某些籃球界的人就開始想在籃球如法炮製
可惜的是大多數的人完全搞錯方向,只抄了表面的東西卻沒抄到精髓
以為所謂Moneyball = 用數據評估球員
事實上根本不是這樣,Moneyball的真正意涵是找出其他隊都沒找出的贏球方法
因為其他隊都沒找出,所以這種方法不需要花大錢就能辦到,最具經濟效益
而NBA中真正領悟到這一點並且成功執行的,就只有馬刺隊
他們理解到以數據評估籃球員現階段並不太可行,不是不要做,但是那是次要的
籃球跟棒球的差異太大,棒球每個人上場表現非常獨立,可以分開統計
但籃球受隊友 教練 戰術 對手的影響太大,要獨立對單獨球員做數據分析很困難
也不是說完全不可能,但要發展到堪用的時間肯定比棒球長非常多
棒球花了30年以上才算部份成熟,籃球不到十年,要靠這個還早得很
馬刺真正領悟的是各隊都沒注意到的東西
團隊 化學效應 球員人格特質 教練的重要性 國際球員
其中國際球員已經被很多隊都抄襲了
但團隊 球員人格特質 教練這幾點,其他隊都還沒什麼注意到
特別是球員人格特質,現在各隊都是捧球星,球星個性爛到爆又獨還是照捧
私下人格特質根本就不是考量的點
團隊跟化學效應之類的也是嘴巴上說說而已,事實上根本也不太重視
但實際上球員的人格特質決定化學效應出不出得來,團隊籃球打不打得起來
可以說是團隊籃球一切的根本,在一輪中後段挑一個有這種特質的球員
融入團隊後效益完全不輸前段樂透籤,但付的錢少好幾倍
而且即使球隊年年進季後賽都還可以年年有這種籤,長期保持競爭力
這麼好的事情居然只有馬刺在爽爽做,還真的是蠻怪的
不過那也是因為另外一點:教練,以上一切沒一個好教練統統是白搭
教練的重要性很多隊都沒擺太高,但事實證明一個好教練比一個巨星效益還高
而且巨星要兩千萬,教練一千萬以內打死,還不用算薪資上限
簡直是投資報酬率最高的位置
馬刺或許是運氣好,又或許是有意識的,早早就綁住了頂級教練
再把一切串連在一起,就成了真正的籃球上面的Moneyball
比起其他一堆得其形不得其神的"數據籃球" Moneyball
馬刺應該是目前Moneyball在NBA唯一的成功案例了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.165.202.56
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1402934620.A.92A.html
推
06/17 00:08, , 1F
06/17 00:08, 1F
推
06/17 00:08, , 2F
06/17 00:08, 2F
→
06/17 00:09, , 3F
06/17 00:09, 3F
推
06/17 00:10, , 4F
06/17 00:10, 4F
推
06/17 00:12, , 5F
06/17 00:12, 5F
推
06/17 00:17, , 6F
06/17 00:17, 6F
→
06/17 00:17, , 7F
06/17 00:17, 7F
→
06/17 00:17, , 8F
06/17 00:17, 8F
推
06/17 00:25, , 9F
06/17 00:25, 9F
推
06/17 00:29, , 10F
06/17 00:29, 10F
→
06/17 00:34, , 11F
06/17 00:34, 11F
推
06/17 00:34, , 12F
06/17 00:34, 12F
→
06/17 00:35, , 13F
06/17 00:35, 13F
→
06/17 00:35, , 14F
06/17 00:35, 14F
推
06/17 00:35, , 15F
06/17 00:35, 15F
→
06/17 00:35, , 16F
06/17 00:35, 16F
→
06/17 00:36, , 17F
06/17 00:36, 17F
→
06/17 00:36, , 18F
06/17 00:36, 18F
推
06/17 00:36, , 19F
06/17 00:36, 19F
→
06/17 00:37, , 20F
06/17 00:37, 20F
→
06/17 00:37, , 21F
06/17 00:37, 21F
→
06/17 00:37, , 22F
06/17 00:37, 22F
→
06/17 00:38, , 23F
06/17 00:38, 23F
→
06/17 00:38, , 24F
06/17 00:38, 24F
→
06/17 00:38, , 25F
06/17 00:38, 25F
→
06/17 00:39, , 26F
06/17 00:39, 26F
→
06/17 00:41, , 27F
06/17 00:41, 27F
→
06/17 00:42, , 28F
06/17 00:42, 28F
噓
06/17 00:46, , 29F
06/17 00:46, 29F
推
06/17 00:47, , 30F
06/17 00:47, 30F
→
06/17 00:49, , 31F
06/17 00:49, 31F
→
06/17 00:51, , 32F
06/17 00:51, 32F
→
06/17 00:52, , 33F
06/17 00:52, 33F
→
06/17 00:53, , 34F
06/17 00:53, 34F
噓
06/17 00:57, , 35F
06/17 00:57, 35F
※ 編輯: Wolfken (118.165.202.56), 06/17/2014 00:58:47
→
06/17 00:59, , 36F
06/17 00:59, 36F
→
06/17 00:59, , 37F
06/17 00:59, 37F
噓
06/17 01:02, , 38F
06/17 01:02, 38F
推
06/17 01:03, , 39F
06/17 01:03, 39F
推
06/17 01:16, , 40F
06/17 01:16, 40F
→
06/17 01:17, , 41F
06/17 01:17, 41F
→
06/17 01:22, , 42F
06/17 01:22, 42F
推
06/17 01:28, , 43F
06/17 01:28, 43F
→
06/17 01:35, , 44F
06/17 01:35, 44F
→
06/17 01:36, , 45F
06/17 01:36, 45F
→
06/17 01:36, , 46F
06/17 01:36, 46F
推
06/17 01:53, , 47F
06/17 01:53, 47F
推
06/17 02:06, , 48F
06/17 02:06, 48F
→
06/17 02:06, , 49F
06/17 02:06, 49F
→
06/17 02:06, , 50F
06/17 02:06, 50F
→
06/17 02:06, , 51F
06/17 02:06, 51F
推
06/17 02:35, , 52F
06/17 02:35, 52F
→
06/17 02:53, , 53F
06/17 02:53, 53F
→
06/17 02:53, , 54F
06/17 02:53, 54F
→
06/17 02:54, , 55F
06/17 02:54, 55F
→
06/17 02:55, , 56F
06/17 02:55, 56F
→
06/17 02:56, , 57F
06/17 02:56, 57F
→
06/17 02:57, , 58F
06/17 02:57, 58F
→
06/17 02:57, , 59F
06/17 02:57, 59F
推
06/17 03:04, , 60F
06/17 03:04, 60F
推
06/17 03:29, , 61F
06/17 03:29, 61F
推
06/17 04:48, , 62F
06/17 04:48, 62F
推
06/17 08:30, , 63F
06/17 08:30, 63F
推
06/17 09:10, , 64F
06/17 09:10, 64F
→
06/17 09:10, , 65F
06/17 09:10, 65F
推
06/17 09:18, , 66F
06/17 09:18, 66F
※ 編輯: Wolfken (118.165.199.100), 06/17/2014 09:19:20
推
06/17 09:23, , 67F
06/17 09:23, 67F
推
06/17 10:21, , 68F
06/17 10:21, 68F
推
06/17 10:36, , 69F
06/17 10:36, 69F
→
06/17 11:04, , 70F
06/17 11:04, 70F
→
06/17 11:05, , 71F
06/17 11:05, 71F
推
06/17 11:05, , 72F
06/17 11:05, 72F
推
06/17 12:18, , 73F
06/17 12:18, 73F
推
06/17 12:25, , 74F
06/17 12:25, 74F
→
06/17 12:26, , 75F
06/17 12:26, 75F
→
06/17 12:27, , 76F
06/17 12:27, 76F
→
06/17 12:27, , 77F
06/17 12:27, 77F
→
06/17 12:28, , 78F
06/17 12:28, 78F
→
06/17 12:28, , 79F
06/17 12:28, 79F
推
06/17 12:53, , 80F
06/17 12:53, 80F
推
06/17 13:31, , 81F
06/17 13:31, 81F
推
06/18 12:16, , 82F
06/18 12:16, 82F
推
06/20 19:48, , 83F
06/20 19:48, 83F
討論串 (同標題文章)
以下文章回應了本文:
完整討論串 (本文為第 1 之 2 篇):