Re: [討論] 聯盟30隊先發控衛比較已回收
※ 引述《yoyoman0529 (松陰)》之銘言:>
: 從你去年12月開始分泌之後,Lin以經過50場左右來講的話,
: 他的PER進步了3.2,僅次於Lawson的3.9,
: 而且他所在的火箭隊是季後賽競爭者。
: 花8M買15.3PER的控衛,平均1PER值多少錢,
結論應該沒有什麼問題,但是推導過程其實是有些許瑕疵的。
我們不講求去看PER的原始方程式,只要看一段英文就好
PER strives to measure a player's per-minute performance,
while adjusting for pace. A league-average PER is always
15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across
seasons.
PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field
goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and
steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and
personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts
negative ones through a statistical point value system. The
rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis
so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with
starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the
team's pace. In the end, one number sums up the players'
statistical accomplishments for that season.
http://tinyurl.com/coc4lux
via wikipedia
簡單來說:
1) PER是以球場上的正反向數據諸元通過一精算過的方程式,
來分析一個球員的「效率」(而非累積性貢獻)
2) PER 只考慮他在場上時的單位時間(此時間乃以Pace為基礎)效果,
只能算是分辨球員影響力的指標之一,
而不能拿來當作「買賣」上的唯一指標。
3) PER的值有一個回歸原點,也就是聯盟平均,
以Hollinger的設計,一個球員不計他的角色與上場時間,
只要他在場上的效率值約等同於聯盟平均,那大概就是15。
因此問題來了。
用PER來算薪水的產出是否正確? Forget about it.
> --- <
所以正確的結論應該是什麼呢?
Lin今年的PER是 15.3,新人年在奧克蘭的 PER 是 14.8,
但是你絕對不會只憑PER說他在這兩年內毫無進步。
因為新人年他只上了285分鐘,而大部分都是垃圾時間。
去年 19.9 的 PER 的確很猛,
但是 1) 這是940分鐘的成績
2) 這是usage% 直衝天際的情況下出現的數字。
3) 去年很多球隊都還沒有擁有他的完整scouting report跟video tape
以PER的特性來看,只要你Usage%高,通常你的PER不會太難看
如果你是一個Usage%衝高而PER卻沒有跟著衝高的球員,
我想GM很快就會跟你說掰掰了。
所以,同樣我也不認為從去年的19.9PER到今年的15.3PER是種退步。
why?
因為在上場時間大幅提昇(940 -> 2207)的情況下:
1) TS% 沒有退步 (.552 -> .541)
2) eFG% 更上一層樓 (.478 -> .494)
3) Usage% 回到一般先發球員的水準 (20.3%)
這證明:即便他不是戰術核心,他也是個聯盟平均水準以上的先發控球。
很多球隊甚至很難在大部分時間排出一個績效超過聯盟平均的一號位球員
(舉例來說:Mario Chalmers,去年冠軍隊先發PG自稱聯盟前十
卻從來沒有在PER超過14過,他的Usage%也也低的可憐,
他的WS/48之所以能突破.100的平均貢獻水準,原因無他,
因為他獲得了大量高品質的三分空檔。)
而火箭花了8M找了一個聯盟平均水準的先發控球,
雖然稍貴,但是看在聯盟的薪資水平以及薪資上限/豪華稅開徵上限的眼中
你只能說這是市價。
--
的確有些板友過度神話他的存在,
也有很多人對他有著過份的偏見。
但是切記,不要讓你的先入為主讓你的結論與推論過程背離事實。
--
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