Fw: [分享] Lamigo 封王機率已回收
目前M2 假設沒有延賽 沒有和局 每一場對戰都是五五波
6/12(四) 6/13(五) 6/14(六) 6/15(日) 6/17(二) 6/18(三) 6/19(四) 6/26(四)
象vs猿 象vs猿 象vs猿 犀vs猿 犀vs猿
象vs獅 獅vs犀 獅vs犀 獅vs犀 獅vs象 獅vs犀 犀vs獅
6/13封王 6/13以前的3場比賽要拿下2場以上 所謂的拿下就是猿勝或獅敗
機率是 (C3取3+C3取2)/2^3 = 50.00%
6/14封王 6/14以前的5場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/13以前封王
機率是 (C5取5+...+C5取2)/2^5 - (C3取3+C3取2)/2^3 = 31.25%
6/15封王 6/15以前的7場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/14以前封王
機率是 (C7取7+...+C7取2)/2^7 - (C5取5+...+C5取2)/2^5 = 12.50%
6/17封王 6/17以前的9場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/15以前封王
機率是 (C9取9+...+C9取2)/2^9 - (C7取7+...+C7取2)/2^7 = 4.30%
6/18封王 6/18以前的10場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/17以前封王
機率是 (C10取10+...+C10取2)/2^10 - (C9取9+...+C9取2)/2^9 = 0.88%
6/19封王 6/19以前的11場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/18以前封王
機率是 (C11取11+...+C11取2)/2^11 - (C10取10+...+C10取2)/2^10 = 0.49%
結論:無論是自力封王或非自力封王 Lamigo在家裡拋彩帶的機率 = 99.41%
假設如果if很不幸的到6/19還沒封王 因為沒比賽了 就要靠統一輸球
6/26封王 6/19以前的12場比賽要拿下2場以上 扣掉6/19以前封王
機率是 (C12取12+...+C12取2)/2^12 - (C11取11+...+C11取2)/2^11 = 0.27%
結論:Lamigo封王機率 = 99.68%
統一逆轉封王 必須在剩下有猿或獅的12場比賽拿下11場以上
機率是 (C12取12+C12取11)/2^12 = 0.32%
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 轉錄者: michael9002 (140.112.148.77), 06/11/2014 22:40:44
※ 編輯: michael9002 (140.112.148.77), 06/11/2014 22:41:08
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