Re: [問題] 什麼時候才要把黃龍義調離第一棒?
※ 引述《redzero (希)》之銘言:
: 大家都看的出他的狀況了
: 為什麼不跟小頭調換棒次讓他去第9棒調整調整??
: 以熊隊第一局多一個出局數跟多一個上壘者對4棒之後會有多大的攻擊重要性
: 紅中總在想什麼??
摘自數據痴漢底八格的文章:BILL JAMES的重要想法(5)
19. 打擊順序並不是那麼的重要:
球迷喜歡幫喜愛的球隊排先發打序,說如果打序改成怎樣,球隊就會多拿多少分數。不
過,跟大多數人直覺的想法有所不同,其實打序的選擇並不太重要。在 1985 的某期
Fortune 雜誌上有一篇研究,利用電腦模型來模擬紐約大都會隊的打擊陣容,研究中用
同樣的九個人比較了三個打序:傳統的打序、亂數排的打序、以及按照打者的強弱照順
序從第一棒排到第九棒。結果是,亂數排的打序得分反而是最高的。
Dick Cramer 也做了類似的研究。他設定打線中有三個人的成績是像 Babe Ruth,另外
六個人就跟一般投手打擊成績差不多。結果發現,不管是把三個 Ruth 排在一二三棒(
讓強棒連續出擊,而且有最多的打擊機會),還是排在三六九棒(讓強棒盡量沒機會串
連攻擊,而且減少了上場機會),最後跑出來的得分數都差不多。Bill James 在 Guide
to Managers 一書中也談到了他作的類似研究,結果依然相同。James 說,不管用什麼
順序排打線,結果都不會差太多。
你可以想到一大堆為什麼打擊順序重要的理由,像是把如果強棒搬到最後一棒,會讓他
的打點數大幅減少。不過,把所有人的棒次都往後移是不可能的。強棒的打擊數據減少
的部分,有一大部分會跑到其他打者的成績上。James 的結果是,跟一般所謂合理的打
序來比較,就算想辦法把打序排成讓得分盡量少,最後得分數也不過只相差 5% 而已。
在現實中,只要教練排的是合理的打序,即使作少許更動,最後結果也差不多,會遠低
於 5%,一年下來差不了幾分。
很妙吧!攻擊二棒、上壘率長打率isop的觀念進入ptt後,大家都忙著排棒次,
結果原祖數據痴漢告訴你其實那並不怎麼重要 XD
所以大家排爽就好,可別爭得臉紅脖子粗,BJ這段話其實跟大絕差不多啊 XD
--
,這個名字多麼的好聽......
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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