[分享] 學者John Mearsheimer對烏俄議題的觀點
學者John Mearsheimer (https://www.mearsheimer.com/biography/)
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at
the University of Chicago)
在2014年撰寫Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
為什麼烏克蘭危機是西方的錯
連結:https://reurl.cc/44vo63
跟現在發生的事情似乎既視感很強
節錄尾段的一些重點,如果有錯請見諒
1.neither the United States nor its NATO allies are prepared to use force to
defend Ukraine
美國跟北約不會為烏克蘭動武
2.The West is relying instead on economic sanctions to coerce Russia into ending
its support for the insurrection in eastern Ukraine
西方會依賴經濟制裁來約束俄羅斯意圖分離烏東的行為
3. the United States and the EU put in place their third round of limited
sanctions, targeting mainly high-level individuals closely tied to the Russian
government and some high-profile banks, energy companies, and defense )rms.
They also threatened to unleash another, tougher round of sanctions, aimed at
whole sectors of the Russian economy
引證克里米亞危機,美歐選擇對俄羅斯進行了高強度的經濟制裁
4.Such measures will have little effect.
有些制裁措施的效果很低
5.But even if the United States could convince its allies to enact tough
measures, Putin would probably not alter his decision-making
美國就算能說服盟友一起實施制裁,可能也難動搖普丁
6.History shows that countries will absorb enormous amounts of punishment in
order to protect their core strategic interests. There is no reason to think
Russia represents an exception to this rule.
歷史說明這些國家將會選擇保護自己的核心戰略而不會對制裁低頭,沒有理由相信普丁會
是例外
7.Vice President Joseph Biden met with Ukrainian legislators and told them,
“This is a second opportunity to make good on the original promise made by
the Orange Revolution.”
拜登跑去跟烏克蘭議員畫大餅
8.José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, summarized EU
thinking on Ukraine, saying, “We have a debt, a duty of solidarity with that
country, and we will work to have them as close as possible to us.”
歐盟執委會主席許烏克蘭一個團結的夢
9.at a meeting of NATO members’ foreign ministers, it was agreed that the
alliance would remain open to new members, although the foreign ministers
refrained from mentioning Ukraine by name. “No third country has a veto over
NATO enlargement,” announced Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary-general.
The foreign ministers also agreed to support various measures to improve
Ukraine’s military capabilities in such areas as command and control,
logistics, and cyberdefense.
在北約成員國的外交部長會議,大家一起許烏克蘭(含其他小國)的夢
"開放封測名額"
"沒有第三國可以否決北約擴張"
"同意提高烏克蘭特頂領域的軍事武力如指揮控制、後勤、資安"
註1:當時的烏克蘭還不算親歐,因為7.8.9,國內開始有明顯的親歐且傾向跟歐盟簽署穩定的
政治、經濟協定的風向,因為烏克蘭畢竟是蘇聯瓦解後的國家,還是有親俄派,尤其時任
總統Yanukovych受到普丁的壓力,拒絕簽署跟歐盟的"聯絡國協定",引起烏克蘭"廣場革命
",後來跟總理一起被國會彈劾、逃亡,被烏克蘭通緝,甚至被烏克蘭法院判叛國罪。
註2:2019 年,烏克蘭最高議會將加入歐盟視為正式政策;烏克蘭議會通過憲法修正案,把
烏克蘭加入歐盟和北約作為國家基本方針。
9.the West’s response to the crisis will only make a bad situation worse.
作者認為,上面的舉措讓烏克蘭親歐,只會讓事態變得更糟。
10.The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize
Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer between NATO and Russia
作者認為美國跟歐洲應該要放棄西化烏克蘭的想法,反之應該讓烏克蘭成為一個中性
能緩衝歐美集團跟俄羅斯衝突的角色。
註:這個作者認為小國會變成大國的附庸
11.Western leaders should acknowledge that Ukraine matters so much to Putin
that they cannot support an anti-Russian regime there. This would not mean that
a future Ukrainian government would have to be pro-Russian or anti-NATO. On
the contrary, the goal should be a sovereign Ukraine that falls in neither the
Russian nor the Western
作者認為烏克蘭對普丁非常之重要,所以他認為歐美不應該慫恿烏克蘭,但是作者也聲明
他不是要烏克蘭親俄或反北約。他認為,要達到上面10的目標,那烏克蘭就不應該倒向任
何一方。
12.To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly rule
out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine. The West should also help
fashion an economic rescue plan for Ukraine funded jointly by the EU, the
International Monetary Fund, Russia, and the United States—a proposal that
Moscow should welcome, given its interest in having a prosperous and stable
Ukraine on its western flank.
為了實現上面10的目標,美國跟盟國應公開表示北約不會向喬治亞和烏克蘭擴張。
歐盟、美國、國際貨幣組織、俄羅斯可以共同協助規劃烏克蘭的經濟救援方案
作者認為這樣的建議,俄羅斯會有意願
13.One also hears the claim that Ukraine has the right to determine
whom it wants to ally with and the Russians have no right to prevent
Kiev from joining the West. This is a dangerous way for Ukraine to
think about its foreign policy choices.
有一些國際上的觀點認為烏克蘭有自己交朋友(親歐或親俄)的自由
但作者認為這樣的觀點對烏克蘭用來思考外交政策是很危險的
14.Even if one rejects this analysis, and believes that Ukraine has the right
to petition to join the EU and NATO, the fact remains that the United States
and its European allies have the right to reject these requests. There is no
reason that the West has to accommodate Ukraine if it is bent on pursuing a
wrong-headed foreign policy, especially if its defense is not a vital interest
for them. Indulging the dreams of some Ukrainians is not worth the animosity
and strife it will cause, especially for the Ukrainian people.
就算不認同上面的分析,但作者認為即便烏克蘭有權力請願加入歐盟跟北約,但事實是美
歐還是有權拒絕烏克蘭的請求。(中間我不太了解作者指涉的事情就不好說了)
15.Of course, some analysts might concede that NATO handled relations with
Ukraine poorly and yet still maintain that Russia constitutes an enemy that
will only grow more formidable over time—and that the West therefore has no
choice but to continue its present policy. But this viewpoint is badly mistaken
. Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time. Even if
Russia were a rising power, moreover, it would still make no sense to
incorporate Ukraine into NATO. The reason is simple: the United States and its
European allies do not consider Ukraine to be a core strategic interest, as
their unwillingness to use military force to come to its aid has proved. It
would therefore be the height of folly to create a new NATO member that the
other members have no intention of defending. NATO has expanded in the past
because liberals assumed the alliance would never have to honor its new
security guarantees, but Russia’s recent power play shows that granting
Ukraine NATO membership could put Russia and the West on a collision course.
作者認為俄羅斯是一個衰落中的國家,即便俄羅斯是一個新興強權,但是北約納入烏克蘭
依舊毫無意義,因為烏克蘭對美國跟歐洲不具有戰略利益,所以北約成員國沒有意願去協
防烏克蘭。作者認為北約加入一個新的成員,但是其他的成員不願意去協防,這是他媽的
蠢到不行的舉措。另外,讓烏克蘭成為北約成員國亦可能會造成西方與俄國的衝突。
16.Sticking with the current policy would also complicate Western
relations with Moscow on other issues. The United States needs Russia’s
assistance to withdraw U.S. equipment from Afghanistan through
Russian territory, reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, and stabilize
the situation in Syria. In fact, Moscow has helped Washington on all
three of these issues in the past; in the summer of 2013, it was Putin
who pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire by forging the deal under which
Syria agreed to relinquish its chemical weapons, thereby
avoiding the U.S. military strike that Obama had threatened. The
United States will also someday need Russia’s help containing a rising
China. Current U.S. policy, however, is only driving Moscow and
Beijing closer together.
作者認為美歐在其他事件上還是有需要俄羅斯的地方,像是阿富汗、伊朗核子協議、敘利
亞內戰。事實上,俄羅斯在這三個議題上都有協助美國。在敘利亞議題上,也是普丁協助
歐巴馬來約束敘利亞使用化學武器,美國之後也需要俄國來制衡中國,但是在美國現在的
政策,只會讓俄中愈走愈近。
17.The United States and its European allies now face a choice on
Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate
hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process—a
scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch
gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that
does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations
with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win
美歐如果維持現有的政策,將會加劇俄國對烏克蘭的敵意,並導致所有人都是輸家
但是美歐可以換個思維,他們可以共同創造一個繁榮而且中立的烏克蘭
而這個烏克蘭不會威脅俄羅斯並且成為修補美歐俄關係的中介角色
以這個觀點來說,所有人都可以是贏家。
裡面的預測,覺得比印度神童還神,好險他對美中台的預測不同於烏克蘭
--
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※ 編輯: always0410 (218.35.160.207 臺灣), 03/03/2022 01:36:25
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