[機統] 非常奇妙的機率思辨
最近看到一個很妙的思辨:
我認為下面兩個機率是一樣的,可是好像並不是如此。
52張撲克牌,四種花色個有13張。現在從裡面抽出三張牌。
A. 甲先翻開看其中兩張,得知有兩張黑桃。剩下的一張也是黑桃的機率。
B. 乙問甲是否三張牌中有至少有兩張黑桃。
甲翻開三張牌來看,並回答乙:是的,至少有兩張黑桃。三張牌都是黑桃的機率。
我覺得這兩件事情本身就是一樣的,不了解為什麼AB機率上不一樣。
請各位來指點一下。
謝謝。
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