Re: [閒聊] Swanson算是成功的狀元嗎?
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言:
: PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
: Dansby Swanson 1697 40 .246 .317 .390 85 4.0
: Swanson當年被魯蛇第一指名選進 不久後被交易到勇士
: 被當作是未來勇士基石而早早就升上大聯盟
: 不過到目前為止 累積了三個完整球季的成績只能說是普普通通
: 算是比雜魚板凳好一些但低於平均的表現
: 以狀元的標準來看 這樣的成績算及格嗎?
: 還是當初太早升被rush到了?
https://reurl.cc/ZnOgNV
用這篇文章回應一下,算是稍微幫天鵝哥平反一下。
稍微簡述一下內容,
重點就是告訴你為什麼認為他有很大的進步而且打出身價,裡面用一種衡量方式,wOBA,
來衡量,這個指標算是衡量這顆球打出去成為全壘打或安打的期望值,算是衡量擊
球技巧跟力量的指標。
Swanson連續幾年都一直在進步,而且文章寫的時候的2019超越了Harper, Goldschmidt,
Hoskins, 是Bellinger之外進步最多的。
自己認為:一個狀元除了要打得好,以棒球這樣長期培養的運動型態,能在大聯盟等級持
續一直成長也是球員的價值所在吧?
底下附上最主要的論述段落:
Swanson is ...
Striking out less: 20.4 percent, down from 22.9 percent
Walking more: 9.3 percent, up from 8.3 percent
Hitting harder: 46 percent, up from 34 percent
Hitting fewer grounders: 39 percent, down from 44 percent
More importantly, when he hits the ball in the air (flies and liners), he's hi
tting it harder. In 2017-18, his hard-hit rate on balls in the air was just 40
percent. This year, it's up to 57 percent. It's where damage is found.
Those are all good things. But how do you combine them into one number?
The way we get to that is through Expected Weighted On-Base Average, which acc
ounts for quality of contact as well as amount of contact, in an attempt to re
move the effects of park and defense. (For example, when Swanson crushed a bal
l at 103.2 MPH and a 30 degree launch angle in the third inning on Sunday, we
give him credit for the fact that such a ball is a hit 80 percent of the time
and a homer 74 percent of the time, not that Ketel Marte tracked it down for a
n out in the deepest part of Chase Field.)
In 2017, Swanson's expected wOBA was .297, or in the 10th percentile. In '18,
it was .278, or in the sixth percentile. (The Major League average in '17-18 w
as .320.) So far in '19, Swanson is up to .373 -- better than Bryce Harper, Pa
ul Goldschmidt, or Rhys Hoskins -- and that jump of nearly 100 points puts him
up at the top of the "most improved" list, right behind Bellinger.
Biggest improvements in Expected wOBA, 2018-19, Min. 100 PA each season
+.177 -- Cody Bellinger, LAD
+.095 -- Dansby Swanson, ATL (from .278 to .373)
+.088 -- Hunter Dozier, KC
+.087 -- George Springer, HOU
+.083 -- Josh Bell, PIT
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 110.28.170.118 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1568009619.A.3D3.html
※ 編輯: rainmangay (110.28.170.118 臺灣), 09/09/2019 14:14:36
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