[外電] 季後5大FA:達比修,J.D.,Hosmer,Arrieta及田中將大
1. 新聞來源：
mlbtraderumors
2. 新聞標題：
2017-18 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
2017-18 MLB前50名自由球員及預測(只翻譯前五位，中文翻譯第八頁開始)
3. 新聞內容：
By Tim Dierkes | November 2, 2017 at 11:23pm CDT
MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 12th annual Top 50 Free Agents list!
The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can
filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our
mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.
New to MLBTR? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on
Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.
MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Jason Martinez joined me in this
collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations for many hours.
We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile
free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Let us know
what you think in the comment section!
Looking for Shohei Otani? Scroll to the bottom of the post for information
on Japan’s Babe Ruth, whose free agency is a special case. On to our Top 50
free agents:
1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM. Let’s start by addressing the
elephant in the room. Darvish recorded a mere ten outs in his two brutal
World Series starts for the Dodgers. With those ugly outings fresh in our
minds, projecting him to receive the winter’s largest contract creates
cognitive dissonance. However, Darvish remains what he was a week ago: a
very good starting pitcher and the best in this free agent class.
Darvish spent the first seven years of his career in Japan starring for the
Nippon Ham Fighters. The Fighters made Darvish available to MLB teams in
December 2011, at a time when there was no limit on bidding for the exclusive
right to negotiate with the player. The Rangers beat out the Blue Jays,
Yankees, and Cubs with a $51.7MM bid and signed Darvish to a six-year, $56MM
deal on top of that. Darvish’s fine Rangers career included 782 2/3 innings
of 3.42 ERA ball with a 11.0 K/9, plus four All-Star appearances and a
second-place Cy Young finish. He was traded to the Dodgers in July, making
him ineligible for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. While with the Rangers,
Darvish went about 22 months between starts due to Tommy John surgery. He’s
been injury-free this year and nudged his way past the 200-inning plateau in
his brief start last night. The 31-year-old righty should have no problem
setting a new free agent record for a Tommy John survivor, passing Jordan
Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM deal. Seven-year contracts have historically
been reserved for slightly younger pitchers without elbow surgery on their
resume, so we’re expecting six years for Darvish. Free agent starters have
exceeded a $25MM salary four different times, and we’re projecting Darvish
to become the fifth. If the Dodgers decide to move on, the Cubs, Phillies,
Nationals, Cardinals, Astros, and Twins could be potential suitors. There’s
a shortage of obvious big-market players here, allowing for dark horses to
enter the mix.
2. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox. Six years, $150MM. Martinez came up through
the Astros’ farm system but struggled through 975 plate appearances in the
Majors and was released in March 2014. The Astros didn’t understand the
impact of his recently-overhauled swing. The Tigers scooped Martinez up on a
minor league deal, and he went on to rake at a .300/.361/.551 pace with 99
home runs in 1,886 plate appearances for them from 2014-17. A trade to the
Diamondbacks this past July removed the possibility of a qualifying offer and
boosted Martinez’s stock further as he went nuts with 29 home runs in 62
games. He finished with a career-high 45 bombs on the season. The biggest
knock on Martinez is his right field defense, which has been a clear negative
for the last two years. He also missed significant time with an elbow
fracture in 2016 and a foot sprain to begin this year. Still, Martinez’s
right-handed power will make him the most coveted bat on the market, enough
that teams without corner outfield openings could trade someone to create a
spot. The Diamondbacks may not have the payroll space to retain Martinez,
leaving the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Giants as top suitors.
3. Eric Hosmer – Royals. Six years, $132MM. Every year one free agent is
particularly polarizing, and this winter it’s Hosmer. The first baseman did
solid work for the Royals over seven seasons, with a well-timed career-best
batting line of .318/.385/.498 in 671 plate appearances this year. He just
turned 28 and will be looking for at least six years — quite likely more.
However, defensive metrics rate his glove poorly (a 2017 Gold Glove
nomination notwithstanding), and off years with the bat resulted in
replacement level seasons in 2014 and ’16. A case will be made for a $200MM
contract, but it’s not a very good case. Teams seeking a first baseman have
free-agent alternatives such as Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, and Yonder
Alonso, as well as trade candidate Jose Abreu. If Hosmer gets a huge
contract, it probably won’t be from the game’s more analytical teams. The
Royals seem likely to make a spirited effort to retain Hosmer as the face of
their franchise, while the Red Sox, Cardinals, Mariners, and Rockies could
enter the market to varying degrees. Hosmer is a lock to receive and reject
a qualifying offer.
4. Jake Arrieta – Brewers. Four years, $100MM. A July 2013 trade from the
Orioles to the Cubs rebooted Arrieta’s career, which peaked with the NL Cy
Young Award in 2015. Arrieta’s star has dimmed since then, as he’s become
more prone to walks, home runs, and hits and stopped pitching deep into
games. He still provided value to the 2017 Cubs, with 30 starts of 3.53 ERA
ball. Though he turns 32 in March, Arrieta’s case for a long-term deal is
boosted by excellent physical conditioning. We expect him to come out
looking for a six-year deal, but land at four or five. Arrieta appears
likely to move on from the Cubs, with whom he was unable to agree to an
extension in the past few years. However, it’s possible Arrieta could
circle back to the Cubs later in the offseason if his market disappoints. We
don’t see a clear favorite to sign him, so we’ve chosen a dark horse pick
in the Brewers. The Cardinals, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Phillies,
Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Twins, and Dodgers could be in the mix
depending on the price.
5. Masahiro Tanaka – Phillies. Five years, $100MM. Tanaka, 29 this month,
is coming off his fourth and perhaps worst MLB season. He posted a 4.74 ERA
in 30 regular season starts, with a ridiculous 21.2% of his flyballs allowed
becoming home runs. It wasn’t a Yankee Stadium problem, as Tanaka was even
more homer-prone on the road. On the bright side, Tanaka put up a
career-best strikeout rate, a 3.77 ERA in the second half, and three
excellent, homer-free postseason starts. Back in January 2014, Tanaka joined
the Yankees via the Japanese baseball posting system after pitching seven
years for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. With the posting fee capped at $20MM,
the Yankees won the bidding over the Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, and
Diamondbacks with a seven-year, $155MM deal that included an opt-out that
comes due at midnight on Saturday. The biggest wrinkle in Tanaka’s
long-term prospects may be the partially torn UCL in his right elbow, which
surfaced more than three years ago. Tanaka went the rehab route instead of
undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2015 Tanaka missed time with a forearm
strain and had arthroscopic elbow surgery in the offseason. This year, he
had a DL stint for shoulder fatigue. If Tanaka opts out, he will be walking
away from three years and $67MM left on his Yankees contract. Ervin Santana
was able to land a four-year deal with a rehabbed and healed UCL, and it
seems that opting out is the right call for Tanaka. The Yankees could be in
a position to lower their luxury tax hit by adding a year or two and reducing
the average annual value of his contract. If Tanaka moves on from the
Yankees, the Cubs, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies,
Twins, Mariners, Rangers, and Brewers could be possibilities. If he does opt
out, the Yankees will assuredly issue a qualifying offer in order to collect
draft-pick compensation.
4. 新聞網址：
https://tinyurl.com/y8r75ref
5. 備註：
MLBTR列出球季結束後的自由球員名單如下：
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
本文是MLBTR列出的前五十名自由球員及簽約預測，有興趣的可以點進去網址看英文版，
小魯翻到前五個就先倒惹QQ
1. Yu Darvish (ダルビッシュ有)：小熊，$160MM/6YR。
儘管達比修有在世界大賽先發表現慘烈，但他仍然是目前FA中最頂級的投手。從2011
年自日本職棒闖蕩美國職棒大聯盟以來，在大聯盟的成績有目共睹：四度入圍明星賽、單
季三振王、更拿過賽揚票選第二名。雖然他曾動過Tommy John手術，但今年是手術後第一
次單季投超過兩百局，對滿31歲的達比修有來說健康因素應不是大問題。在合約方面，因
為今年七月從遊騎兵被交易至道奇，沒有$17.4MM QO的資格，MLBTR預測應可拿超過六年、
每年$25MM的價碼，競爭者如道奇、小熊、費城人、國民、紅雀、太空人及黑馬雙城。
2. J.D. Martinez：紅襪，$150MM/6YR。
在太空人時期打的掙扎．2014年3月被釋出後轉戰老虎，之後卻繳出明星等級般的可怕
火力，曾入圍明星賽、拿過銀棒獎，今年更敲出生涯新高的單季45轟！然而，J.D.的疑慮
除了在右外野守備、連兩年的守備數據皆為負值外，手肘與腳部的傷勢也是他無法整季完
整出賽的重要因素，儘管如此，他仍然是目前市場中最強力的右打者，對缺少左右外野的
球隊是很好的選擇。在合約方面，因季中交易沒有QO資格，且母隊響尾蛇薪資空間有限的
關係大概也不會留他，競爭者如紅雀、紅襪及巨人。
3. Eric Hosmer：皇家，$132MM/6YR。
自皇家發跡超過六年至今將步入自由市場，合約年繳出了生涯最佳三圍.318/.385/
.498，曾拿過金手套(雖然入圍了今年的守備聖經獎，但今年進階守備數據不佳)、入圍明
星賽、拿過世界大賽冠軍，今年滿28歲的Hosmer希望能有一紙至少六年的約，Scott Boras
更說要爭取$200MM的大約。在合約方面，皇家希望能留下Hosmer成為隊史的代表人物之一
，其他的競爭者如紅襪、紅雀、水手、洛磯等，而Hosmer則需決定是不是要接受QO。
4. Jake Arrieta：釀酒人，$100MM/4YR。
2013年以前給人的印象就是保送過多、容易挨轟、投的不長的毛病，但自從金鶯交易
至小熊後，卻成為明星等級的王牌投手，拿過賽揚獎、銀棒獎、入圍過明星賽、更幫助小
熊拿下世界大賽冠軍！雖然他明年就要滿32歲，但這對沒甚麼健康疑慮的Arrieta拿長約
應該不是問題，MLBTR期待他能拿到六年約、至少也有四年、五年約。在合約方面，過去
小熊曾開出延長合約，但Arrieta顯然希望能進入自由市場試試水溫，市場競爭者如紅雀、
國民、太空人、遊騎兵、費城人、洋基、天使、水手、勇士、雙城及黑馬釀酒人，而道奇
則是看價碼而定。
5. Masahiro Tanaka(田中 将大)：費城人，$100MM/5YR。
從日本樂天金鷹轉戰紐約洋基，簽了一紙$155MM/7YR的大約，在大聯盟待了四年、剛
滿29歲的田中將大，卻投出大聯盟球季生涯中最差的成績，30場先發中繳出4.74 ERA、
21.2%的飛球被轟成全壘打(本季被轟出35轟)。但另一方面，本季卻也是田中投出三振率
最高的球季(9.8 SO9)，下半季繳出3.77 ERA，季後賽更是三場精彩的先發沒被轟出全壘打
，20局投球僅失兩分！然而，田中將大最大的疑慮就是健康問題，右手肘部分撕裂傷困擾
著他超過了三年，這期間藉由其他復健方式而不是動Tommy John手術來進行治療，2015年
球季田中將大曾因為前臂緊繃，動了關節鏡手肘手術也沒有完整出賽，今年也曾因肩膀的
疲勞進過DL。在合約方面，目前田中與洋基還有$67MM/3YR的約，洋基則希望能把明年的預
算控制在豪華稅門檻之下，故可能對幾位陣中的大約選手進行處理，如果洋基不留下田中
，應該會開QO給他來取得選補償選秀，而市場競爭者如小熊、國民、太空人、紅雀、道奇
、天使、費城人、雙城、水手、遊騎兵、釀酒人都是可能的買家。
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1509734851.A.295.html
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文章有寫，我補上去好了。
※ 編輯: saiulbb (61.56.143.149), 11/04/2017 03:10:47
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