[外電] Jim Class: Ex-GM forecasts top free ag

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來源： MLB 標題： Jim Class: Ex-GM forecasts top free agent moves Duquette weighs in on where coveted players will go and how much they'll earn 內文： By Jim Duquette / MLB.com | 12:00 AM ET As the postseason played out through October, Major League front offices worked hard to create their free-agent "wish" lists. And now that any free agent can sign with any team, the job of each general manager has become a lot more hectic. Below are my free-agent rankings for the 2015-16 offseason and opinions on where each player might fit best. I also have projected the parameters of each player's next contract -- in terms of dollars and years. A free agent's cost is based primarily on his past performance and his value in relation to similar free agents from recent offseasons. Both of these factors were kept in mind as this piece was written. FA開始瞜! 以下是Jim Duquette做的預測及合約長短大小。 ‧ Hot Stove Tracker David Price, SP, (entering age-30 season) There are only a few suitors who can afford his price tag, as Price will be as expensive as Max Scherzer was last year -- north of $200 million over seven seasons. But as a bonus, the signing team will not have to forfeit a Draft pick, because Price is one of a few free agents who was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded during the past season. 因為有交易過，不能被提QO，簽約的球隊不會被掉選秀權。 Interested teams: Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox, Blue Jays Duquette's prediction: Red Sox 預測球隊：紅襪/預測合約：200M/7YR Zack Greinke, SP, age 32 Greinke will receive attention from many of the teams interested in Price, and he will likely end up with a shorter contract than the left-hander, given that Greinke is two years older. But Greinke will still command a large average annual salary, perhaps as much as $30 million per over five years. Such was his plan when he opted out of the final three years and $71 million on his Dodgers deal. 比Price老兩歲的右投，但拿大約沒問題！跳出道奇的合約剩下71M/3YR。 Interested teams: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Cardinals Duquette's prediction: Giants 預測球隊：巨人/預測合約：150M/5YR Chris Davis, 1B, age 30 Davis has been an impact player in two of the past three seasons, and his versatility between first base and the corner outfield positions makes him even more attractive. Expect him to get a big deal, perhaps as much as $140 million across seven seasons. Interested teams: Orioles, Cardinals, Tigers, Padres Duquette's prediction: Orioles 預測球隊：金鶯/預測合約：140M/7YR Jason Heyward, OF, age 26 Young for a free agent, the athletic Heyward will be an attractive option for teams that covet players who excel on both sides of the ball. In fact, the defensively gifted Heyward could play center field for some clubs. With this in mind, look for him to sign a huge deal, perhaps as long as seven years at $20 million per. 攻守俱佳，對某些球隊勝任中外野都沒問題！ Interested teams: Mets, Orioles, Angels, Cardinals, Tigers Duquette's prediction: Cardinals 預測球隊：紅雀/預測合約：140M/7YR Jordan Zimmermann, SP, age 30 After turning down a significant offer to stay with the Nationals, Zimmermann hits free agency as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter for some teams. Expect him to get a deal similar to the one Jon Lester signed last offseason (six years, $155 million). 在拒絕國民的大約後，Zimmermann可某些隊的望是潛在的一號、二號先發。 Interested teams: Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays Duquette's prediction: Cubs 預測球隊：小熊/預測合約：155M/6YR Yoenis Cespedes, OF, age 30 Cespedes has all of the physical tools that teams covet, and he has recorded more than 100 RBIs in each of the past two seasons. However, the total value of his next contract could be affected by his streakiness, and the fact that he was traded three times in a one-year span (July 31 and Dec. 11, 2014, and then again on July 31, 2015). Still, look for Cespedes to earn just over nine figures across five years. Interested teams: Mets, Orioles, Angels, Padres Duquette's prediction: Padres 預測球隊：教士/預測合約：九位數破億/5YR Justin Upton, OF, age 28 A signing team will need to sacrifice a Draft pick to bring Upton into the fold, but it will be worth it, as Upton would be an impact bat in any lineup. Expect him to get somewhere in the ballpark of six years at a shade under $20 million per. Interested teams: Tigers, Padres, Mets, Orioles, Royals, Angels Duquette's prediction: Angels 預測球隊：天使/預測合約：120M/6YR Alex Gordon, OF, age 32 The four-time American League Gold Glove Award winner declined the player option on his deal with Kansas City, and interest will be high on him, given his strong two-way play. Look for the outfielder to get around $90 million over five years. 4度美聯金手套拒絕皇家的合約，他的身價也水漲船高。 Interested teams: Orioles, Royals, Angels, Padres Duquette's prediction: Royals 預測球隊：皇家/預測合約：90M/5YR Johnny Cueto, SP, age 30 Cueto saw his value take a major hit after he was traded to the Royals in July, as he posted an ERA well over 4.00 with Kansas City. Regardless, his track record is still good enough for teams to have a high level of interest, even if he doesn't command ace money. And given that Cueto has some injury risk, teams may be wary of committing to him for more than five years at around $100 million -- right in the ballpark of what James Shields got last year from San Diego. 交易到皇家後ERA破4，但仍然難以影響他的好身價，即使他不能拿到ACE等級的合約。 Interested teams: Royals, Blue Jays, Twins, Mariners, Astros Duquette's prediction: Blue Jays (Note: You'll notice that the Blue Jays are listed as the best fit for three starters, Cueto included. However, this does not mean that I believe Toronto will sign all three, just that they will be aggressive among the second tier of starting pitchers.) 作者表示藍鳥隊缺三位最好的SP，包含Cueto，但這並不表示三位都會簽，只是會更專注於第二級的SP。預測球隊：藍鳥/預測合約：100M/5YR Daniel Murphy, 2B, age 31 There is plenty of debate regarding Murphy's market value, but the fact is he can hit and play multiple positions (third base, second and first) -- traits that are expensive on the open market. Look for him to get four years in the neighborhood of $60 million. 市場對Murphy的價值有很多討論，但他能打又可以守很多位置(1B、2B、3B)。 Interested teams: Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Mets Duquette's prediction: Angels 預測球隊：天使/預測合約：60M/4YR Howie Kendrick, 2B, age 32 Kendrick has played fewer than 125 games in two of the past three seasons, but that will not stop teams from pursuing him, since he is one of the more productive right-handed bats available. Look for him to get money similar to Murphy, but perhaps a drop less. 過去三季有兩季是低於125場的出賽，但他是其中一位的具產能的右打者。 Interested teams: Yankees, Angels Duquette's prediction: Yankees 預測球隊：洋基/預測合約：略低於60M/4YR Jeff Samardzija, SP, age 31 Entering the 2015 season, Samardzija could have commanded a contract north of $100 million. But after a down year in which his ERA was almost 5.00, the bidding may be a bit lower -- and interesting to watch, given Shark's obvious upside. Four years and $75 million could be the terms here. 今年以前，Samardzija被認為可以拿到一份破億的合約，但今年近五的ERA讓他的身價降低了一點。 Interested teams: White Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals Duquette's prediction: Blue Jays 預測球隊：藍鳥/預測合約：75M/4YR Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, age 35 Zobrist has long been valuable for his versatility and plate skills, and his impressive postseason showing enhanced his market even more. A three-year deal at $16 million per could be enough to get this impressive veteran. Zobrist的價值在於他的多守位、不錯的打擊及季後賽出色的表現。 Interested teams: Mets, Royals, Dodgers, Angels Duquette's prediction: Dodgers 預測球隊：道奇/預測合約：48M/3YR Ian Desmond, SS, age 30 Desmond knows that his market has taken a hit; the only question is how badly after he finished 2015 with career lows in almost every offensive category. Look for a team to buy low on this high-upside player. Four years and a shade under $60 million could get a deal done. Desmond知道他對FA的衝擊，唯一的問題是他今年各方面都是生涯低點的表現。 Interested teams: Mets, Twins, Reds, Mariners Duquette's prediction: Mets 預測球隊：大都會/預測合約：60M/4YR Matt Wieters, C, age 30 Wieters is also coming off a down year, but at least he should be fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that delayed his 2015 season debut. As the top available catcher, he should be well compensated. Look for Wieters to cash in with $15 million per year over four seasons. Wieters今年也是個低潮年，但是他因為Tommy John手術後的表現。 Interested teams: Rockies, Orioles, Braves Duquette's prediction: Braves 預測球隊：勇士/預測合約：60M/4YR Mike Leake, SP, age 28 Leake will be one of the more popular free agents, because he would upgrade any rotation from the middle to the back end and has a while to go before reaching his 30th birthday. Four years and $55 million could be enough to sign the eighth overall pick of the 2009 Draft. Leake是市場上其中一位最夯的選手，他能提升中後段的輪值，同時他還未滿30歲。 Interested teams: Giants, Twins, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Tigers Duquette's prediction: Tigers 預測球隊：老虎/預測合約：55M/4YR Wei-Yin Chen, SP, age 30 One of the most consistent left-handed pitchers in baseball, Chen has shown that he can succeed in an AL East division filled with hitter-friendly ballparks and formidable lineups. Look for him to get a contract similar to that of Leake, with perhaps a bit less money per year. 陳偉殷是棒球場上最穩定的左投之一，他成功證明生存在美東火藥庫，這些對打者有利的球場。 Interested teams: Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Dodgers, Athletics, Cardinals Duquette's prediction: Blue Jays 預測球隊：藍鳥/預測合約：略低於55M/4YR Yovani Gallardo, SP, age 30 Having succeeded in both leagues, Gallardo should garner plenty of interest as a middle-to-back-end starter. He could be worth $50 million over four years. Interested teams: Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Astros Duquette's prediction: Orioles 預測球隊：金鶯/預測合約：50M/4YR Scott Kazmir, SP, age 32 Kazmir is one of the few quality left-handers on the market, and he isn't tied to Draft-pick compensation after being traded from Oakland to Houston this past summer. Given those factors, multiple teams should be in the mix for his services. Three years and $36 million might get it done. Kazmir是市場上幾位少數的左投，而且他因為被交易過，簽約的球隊不會掉選秀權。 Interested teams: Astros, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Orioles Duquette's prediction: Astros 預測球隊：太空人/預測合約：36M/3YR Dexter Fowler, OF, age 30 Few leadoff hitters can also play center field. Fowler is one of them, meaning he can address two hard-to-fill holes. As a result, Fowler could command more than $40 million across three campaigns. 少數幾位能守中外野的首位打者，同時滿足兩個難以被補強之處。 Interested teams: Cubs, Mets, Tigers, Astros Duquette's prediction: Tigers 預測球隊：老虎/預測合約：40M/3YR Marco Estrada, SP, age 32 No pitcher improved his free-agent stock this year more than Estrada. After his strong season, he could match Kazmir in contract years and total dollars. 今年進步最多的非Estrada莫屬。 Interested teams: Mariners, Jays, Pirates, Dodgers, Royals Duquette's prediction: Royals 預測球隊：皇家/預測合約：36M/3YR Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, age 35 Iwakuma would normally garner a lot of attention as one of the AL's most consistent starters, but many reports have suggested that he wants to stay in Seattle. Even with a restricted market, however, he has pitched well enough to earn a deal similar to Kazmir and Estrada, perhaps a shade less per season. Iwakuma是美聯其中一位穩定的投手，並能吸得眾多目光，但許多報導都顯示他想要留在水手隊。 Interested teams: Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Angels Duquette's prediction: Mariners 預測球隊：水手/預測合約：略低於36M/3YR J.A. Happ, SP, age 33 Happ really turned around his season after joining the Pirates at the non-waiver Trade Deadline and making some minor adjustments to his delivery. Given that, he could get a three-year deal worth $10 million per season. Interested teams: Pirates, Dodgers, Orioles Duquette's prediction: Pirates 預測球隊：海盜/預測合約：30M/3YR John Lackey, SP, age 37 The Cardinals benefited from the final year of Lackey's contract, as he pitched for the minimum salary due to a clause that stipulated him to do so if he missed significant time from 2010-14 as a result of a pre-existing elbow injury. After last year's strong showing, the veteran should command plenty of interest -- especially from National League clubs -- on a shorter deal. Look for someone to commit for two years at around $14 million per season. 紅雀今年受益於Lackey最後一年的合約不少，他領底薪是因為合約內紀載，Lackey若在 2010~2014年期間，因為長存的手肘受傷問題而無法出賽(2012年)。經過今年的好表現，這位老將證明了他的價值──特別是針對國聯球隊可以簽一份短約。 Interested teams: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Royals, Dodgers Duquette's prediction: Cardinals 預測球隊：紅雀/預測合約：28M/2YR Colby Rasmus, OF, age 29 Rasmus had to sign a one-year deal last offseason after a difficult 2014 campaign. But given last season's improvements and his ability to play all three outfield spots, he should command a multiyear commitment -- perhaps at $13 million per year across two seasons. Rasmus因為2013年的低點，簽了一份1年合約。但經過今年的進步及他能守外野三個位置，他應該能拿到一份複數年合約。 Interested teams: Astros, Orioles, Mets, Padres, Angels, Royals Duquette's prediction: Astros 預測球隊：太空人/預測合約：26M/2YR 網址： http://m.mlb.com/news/article/156788414/2016-mlb-free-agent-predictions 備註：在今年總經理會議前，參考看看這位前任NYM總管怎麼說吧! --

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