Re: [討論] "一球未投"的風險有多高?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/masahiro-tanaka-and-prospect-valuation/
Cameron這篇寫得挺不錯的,有興趣的可以翻一下
有一點我覺得他講得很好,大部分的人薪水都是肯定過去的表現,
所以直覺上誤以為球員也是如此,其實近代MLB簽FA更在乎的是你未來的表現
好比買車,不是你拿回家開一年覺得他值多少再寄錢給業務
你在還沒開到車的當下就要決定自己願意花多少錢買怎樣的車
裡面提到Jim Bowden也拿Dan Haren來跟田中比
Dan Haren是好投手,但是他全盛時期也不是V壯不是柯蕭
也許這個板上主流應該反問的是,MLB現在的規則是不准大家拿錢來標新秀
老將普遍被overpaid,新秀全都被壓榨,overpaid的程度多少還能估計
新秀被壓榨的多兇?忽略掉這一塊的人大概直覺得反應就是田中太貴
田中現在的狀況幾乎等於是頂級新秀競標
(年輕、大聯盟一球未投、屠殺高階小聯盟、誰都可以談)
如果現在有個25歲一球未投的Dan Haren 2.0上市場,是不是他也拿這個價?
Dan Haren前六年總共拿了多少錢呢?更別提預設的新秀約是沒有大聯盟保障的
問題不是這個市場出了什麼毛病,是你想像中的ML真的符合現實嗎?
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