[外電] Joey Votto: Run Producer

看板MLB作者JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)時間10年前 (2013/08/30 11:30)推噓35(35推 0噓 20→)

留言55則, 34人參與討論串1/1

Joey Votto: Run Producer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-run-producer/ by Jeff Sullivan - August 29, 2013 As I’m writing this on Wednesday night, the Reds are clobbering the Cardinals, 9-0. All those runs, incidentally, were charged to Adam Wainwright, which means both Wainwright and Felix Hernandez imploded on the same day. Joey Votto, so far tonight, has batted three times against St. Louis. He’s drawn three walks, as Votto is wont to do. He walked with two on in the first inning, and later scored a run. He walked with one on in the second inning, and soon thereafter scored a run. He walked again in the fourth, but the bases were empty — and that’s not what this is going to be about. 當我想在星期三晚上寫這篇文章時，紅人正以9:0領先紅雀。9分都是Wainwright的責失，而偶然的Hernandez跟Wainwright就在同天爆炸。Votto在這天打了3次(註一)，然後他 3次都選到保送。第1次在第1局，當時2人在壘，最後他也回來得到1分；然後他在第2局再選保送(壘上有1人)，結果又回來得1分；接著第4局，他在壘上無人情況下又被保送。 *註一:作者寫這篇時比賽還沒結束，最後這場Votto上場打擊四次，領了3BB，回來得2分 If you haven’t read the arguments, you’ve probably at least heard about them. Votto has been a polarizing player for the Reds, because he’s drawn a ton of walks in run-scoring situations. With runners in scoring position, he’ s walked more than a quarter of the time. The end result is that Votto has an underwhelming RBI total, and he’s supposed to be in the lineup to produce runs. In theory, run-producers are supposed to swing the bat. Run-producers like Brandon Phillips. One’s instinct is to think this is absurd — and it is pretty silly — but we might as well dig in for a few minutes. Are people warranted to be frustrated by Joey Votto’s patient approach? 如果你還沒看過這些討論，你也可能聽過這些了。Votto是紅人隊上相當極端的球員，因為他在RISP的時候選一大堆保送，在RISP的情況下，他保送佔打席的比例超過1/4，這結果就是他的打點多讓人"印象深刻"，而且他的棒次應該是要打打點的。理論上打點製造者應該是要揮棒的，就像Brandon Phillips一樣。人們真的對Votto沉默的方式沮喪嗎？但是人的本能都覺得這樣是相當荒謬的。 To give a face to the pro-swing crowd, here’s Dusty Baker: “The name of the game is, ‘He who crosses home plate the most wins.’ So you ’ve got to have somebody to cross home plate, and you’ve got to have somebody help him cross home plate.” Baker makes it clear that he wants to see Votto be the latter guy more often. “He’s done it before,” he said. “It’s not like he hasn’t done it before. ” Baker說：(球賽)就是誰得比較多分，誰就獲勝。所以就是要球員得分，但要得分就要其他人幫忙。 Baker很明顯的表達，他希望Votto是上述的後者(打RBI回來的人) Baker再說：他(Votto)以前做過，所以不是說他不能做到。 To give a face to the pro-patience crowd, here’s Votto: “All I want to do is do what I can,” said the 29-year-old first baseman who heard no complaints in 2010 when he took 91 walks and won the National League MVP. “Sometimes I take a pitch, but I might be timing a pitch and looking at it for a future swing. Sometimes I take a pitch in the middle of the plate and people say, ‘Ah, man, how can he take that pitch with runners in scoring position?’ Well, if I don’t see that pitch why swing. And it might result in a better swing later in the at-bat and a better day in general.” Votto說：我想做的都是我能做到的。有時候我等一球，是為了看投手投球時間間距，接著等待未來的揮擊。有時候我等一球，而這球剛好投在紅中，有人就會說：「嘿！這時候 (RISP)你怎麼能放過這球？」。但是如果我並不覺得這球值得出棒，之後的揮棒結果可能會更棒。 Right now, Votto’s .487 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position ranks him fourth in baseball. For good measure, he’s also batting .318, but that comes with a whole lot of bases on balls, and bases on balls seldom drive runners home. The argument for swinging more is you should expand your zone a little bit with runners in scoring position, because hits become extra valuable. The belief is that Votto is good enough to do that. The argument for sticking with the patience is that swinging at worse pitches will lead to worse results, and drawing a walk is hardly a negative. It’s not up to Votto to drive in all the runs; he’s part of a lineup, after all, and he can add an extra baserunner for the next guy. 現在Votto在RISP的情況下上壘率是.487。從另一方面來說他的打擊率也高達.318，這表示他保送的非常非常多，而保送很少會導致打點的產生。多揮棒的爭論是因為多打帶來更多價值，在RISP下你必須將你的擊球區域過大一些，而Votto的打擊是可以做到這點的。等球的爭論點是，去追打壞球會導致更糟的結果，而選BB幾乎是沒有負面影響的。不能指望都靠Votto打回所有RBI，他是打線中的一員，而保送可以為下個打者製造多的跑者。 If I wanted, I could just leave it at this: Votto presently ranks fifth in baseball in runs scored. That’s not because of his outstanding speed, and it ’s not because he’s constantly driving himself in like Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera. Like Baker said, you need to have someone to score, and someone to help him score. Even when Votto walks, he’s still producing runs, just less visibly. This is pretty elementary stuff. Walks have a positive run value, because walks mean baserunners and baserunners mean more runs. 如果我要的話，我會留下這段話：Votto現在是全聯盟得分第5名，並不是因為他有很快的跑壘速度，他也不像C.Davis跟M.Cabrera。就像Baker說的你需要球員得分，而有些人是幫助他得分。就算Votto選到保送，他一樣是在製造得分，只是非常不明顯。保送對於得分是有正向幫助的，因為保送代表多跑者，而多跑者代表多得分。 Here’s Votto’s first plate appearance from Wednesday. With two on, he drew a walk. 這裡是Votto昨天第一個打席，2人在壘，他選了保送。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb1.png

Those three red circles are swings. Votto didn’t go up there and take everything — he swung at the first pitch, and he even chased a ball out of the zone. But there wound up being a lot more balls out of the zone, so Votto took his walk and didn’t expand his zone too much. Here’s Votto’s second plate appearance from Wednesday. With one on, he drew a walk. 三個紅圈圈是他揮棒的。他揮第一球，然後他甚至揮了一個偏離好球帶的壞球，最後他選到了保送。接下來是Votto第2次上場打擊，1人在壘，他又選了一個保送。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb2.png

He took the first strike. He swung at the second, evening the count 2-and-2. But that was followed by a low ball and a high ball. Neither deserved a swing, so Votto didn’t — and he took his base. The runner on first moved to second, and the next batter went deep. For the second time in two innings, Votto scored. Votto連看三球(第三球是好球)，然後揮第四球，接著5、6球一低一高，選到保送。然後下個打者把球送出球場外，Votto連續2局得分。 For all the talk about how Phillips has been a better run-producer than Votto, here’s something to consider. Absolutely, Phillips has been clutch in 2013. He’s timed his hits for pretty critical spots. With runners in scoring position, Phillips has posted a 2.1 Win Probability Added in 169 plate appearances. Votto, meanwhile, has posted a 1.8 WPA in 152 plate appearances. Adjust to give them the same denominator and there’s hardly any difference. In terms of actually helping the winning cause with runners in scoring position, Votto and Phillips have been just about equally valuable. This despite Votto’s walks and Phillips’ RBI. 每個說法說Phillips是比Votto為更好的得分製造機，都必須考慮一些東西。當然的Phillips今年是比Votto為更為關鍵的紅人打者，RISP下Phillips在169個打擊機會中繳出了2.1的Win Probability Added(WPA,勝出機率提升指數)，而Votto在152 次機會中則是1.8。然而調整過後Phillips跟Votto兩人在RISP中對球隊的貢獻是幾乎相同的。 The simple fact is Votto is both disciplined and good. Because of the discipline, he’ll work a lot of counts and he’ll draw a lot of walks. Because of the talent, sometimes he’ll be pitched around in bigger spots. This year, with runners in scoring position — and excluding intentional walks — Votto has seen the fourth-lowest strike rate in baseball. That’s strike rate, not zone rate, but clearly, Votto isn’t seeing pitchers aggressively pound the zone. They’re aware of what he can do, and they don’ t want for him to beat them. 基本的事實就是Votto選球非常好，因為選球好，讓投手投多球，然後他選一大堆保送。今年在RISP下(包含故意敬遠)，Votto打擊時看到的好球比例是第四低的。這表示Votto並沒有看到投手積極的把球投進好球帶內。投手都懼怕Votto能做到的，而且他們不希望他擊敗他們。 In theory, Votto could try to swing at more strikes with runners in scoring position. In reality, he’s already selecting the strikes he deems to be most hittable, so swinging at other strikes would presumably yield worse results. And it’s almost impossible to increase swings at strikes without also increasing swings at balls, and that’s something people shouldn’t want Votto to do. For a hitter, a ball is always a good result. Swinging at a ball can lead to a better result, but more often, it’ll be a small or large mistake. 理論上Votto在RISP情況下應該揮擊更多球。但事實上他已經選擇揮擊他想要揮的球，所以揮擊其他好球只是會造成更糟糕的結果。而且在多揮擊好球的情況下是不可能不增加揮壞球的機會的，而這點正是人們不希望Votto做出來的表現。對於打者而言，壞球永遠是好結果，揮壞球可能有好結果，但更常見到的是錯誤。 Using information at Brooks Baseball, I dug into Votto’s career. Here are some relevant splits: 從Brooks Baseball，我看了Votto的生涯成績。 BABIP In-zone(好球帶內): .389 Out-of-zone(好球帶外): .318 Isolated slugging In-zone: .317 Out-of-zone: .100 Contact In-zone: 83% Out-of-zone: 67% When Votto has expanded his zone, he hasn’t been a disaster. But he also hasn ’t been particularly productive. He certainly hasn’t hit for much power, and he’s had a tendency to whiff. With more swings, Votto would generate the occasional RBI hit, and people would notice. They wouldn’t always notice the increased number of outs, but that would happen and that would matter. There are people who want more flash, more explosions. Votto, instead, prefers the slow burn. 當Votto放寬他的好球帶，他其實還不算災難，但是他並沒有特別多的產生。他並沒有出現更多砲瓦，而且更容易揮空。當他多揮棒，他可能會產生更多的RBI(人們會注意)，但是他們不會注意到那些多出來的出局，而這些出局可能相當重要。有些人偏好火光、爆炸。但是Votto只是讓火緩慢的燒。 As a final helping of information, Votto has actually been slightly more aggressive this season with runners in scoring position. With runners not in scoring position, he’s swung at 39% of pitches, and 21% of pitches out of the zone. With runners in scoring position, he’s swung at 41% of pitches, and 24% of pitches out of the zone. The differences are so small that they’ re hardly remarkable. But what he is with the bases empty, he is with the bases not empty. That’s Votto’s comfort zone, and taking a guy out of his comfort zone will reduce his effectiveness. Votto’s comfort zone, as we all know, has led to some absolute OBP silliness. 最後提到，其實這球季Votto已經比先前在RISP上更為積極了。沒有跑者在得點圈上時，他揮擊39%的球，其中21%是好球帶以外；但在RISP上他揮擊41%的球，24%在好球帶之外。這其中的差距實在太小，所以沒人注意到。不管是壘包清空還是相反，Votto都做相同的事情。這就是Votto的安逸區(XD)，如果把人拖離這區域都會降低他的效率。而Votto的安逸區就是對於OBP的堅持。 There are ways that Joey Votto could be a better baseball player, because he isn’t perfect. There have been pitches he’s taken with runners in scoring position that he probably could’ve hit. Likewise, with runners in scoring position, there have been pitches Brandon Phillips shouldn’t have swung at. This is just who Votto is, and there’s little sense in complaining about an elite player when he’s performing at an elite level. There are people who don ’t particularly care for Votto’s patience. There is a person with a .435 OBP and a 159 wRC+. One of those is Joey Votto. Defer to the guy who reaches base all the time. He probably has the hitting thing figured out. 有很多面向來說Votto都可以是更好的棒球明星，但是人非完美的。有些球在RISP時，Votto會揮擊，同樣的有些球在RISP時，是Phillips不應該揮的。當精英球員表現出菁英水準，這些抱怨沒多大意義。是有些人不在意他在打擊區的耐心。有個人有.435的上壘率外加wRC+:159，這人就是Joey Votto。 -- 9/13/12 http://rays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24737137&c_id=mlb Lew Ford K Adam Jones K Chris Davis K strikes out the side -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 1.171.123.204 ※ 編輯: JakeMcGee 來自: 1.171.123.204 (08/30 11:32)

→

08/30 11:35, , 1^F

08/30 11:35, 1^F

推

08/30 11:35, , 2^F

08/30 11:35, 2^F

推

08/30 11:51, , 3^F

08/30 11:51, 3^F

推

08/30 11:53, , 4^F

08/30 11:53, 4^F

推

08/30 11:55, , 5^F

08/30 11:55, 5^F

推

08/30 11:58, , 6^F

08/30 11:58, 6^F

→

08/30 11:58, , 7^F

08/30 11:58, 7^F

推

08/30 12:04, , 8^F

08/30 12:04, 8^F

→

08/30 12:05, , 9^F

08/30 12:05, 9^F

→

08/30 12:06, , 10^F

08/30 12:06, 10^F

→

08/30 12:07, , 11^F

08/30 12:07, 11^F

→

08/30 12:08, , 12^F

08/30 12:08, 12^F

推

08/30 12:13, , 13^F

08/30 12:13, 13^F

推

08/30 12:15, , 14^F

08/30 12:15, 14^F

→

08/30 12:16, , 15^F

08/30 12:16, 15^F

推

08/30 12:24, , 16^F

08/30 12:24, 16^F

推

08/30 12:26, , 17^F

08/30 12:26, 17^F

推

08/30 12:33, , 18^F

08/30 12:33, 18^F

→

08/30 12:34, , 19^F

08/30 12:34, 19^F

→

08/30 12:34, , 20^F

08/30 12:34, 20^F

→

08/30 12:36, , 21^F

08/30 12:36, 21^F

推

08/30 12:40, , 22^F

08/30 12:40, 22^F

推

08/30 12:44, , 23^F

08/30 12:44, 23^F

→

08/30 12:44, , 24^F

08/30 12:44, 24^F

推

08/30 12:44, , 25^F

08/30 12:44, 25^F

推

08/30 12:51, , 26^F

08/30 12:51, 26^F

推

08/30 12:59, , 27^F

08/30 12:59, 27^F

推

08/30 13:04, , 28^F

08/30 13:04, 28^F

→

08/30 13:33, , 29^F

08/30 13:33, 29^F

→

08/30 13:55, , 30^F

08/30 13:55, 30^F

推

08/30 13:58, , 31^F

08/30 13:58, 31^F

推

08/30 14:00, , 32^F

08/30 14:00, 32^F

→

08/30 14:00, , 33^F

08/30 14:00, 33^F

推

08/30 14:08, , 34^F

08/30 14:08, 34^F

推

08/30 14:09, , 35^F

08/30 14:09, 35^F

推

08/30 15:27, , 36^F

08/30 15:27, 36^F

推

08/30 16:44, , 37^F

08/30 16:44, 37^F

→

08/30 18:07, , 38^F

08/30 18:07, 38^F

→

08/30 19:11, , 39^F

08/30 19:11, 39^F

推

08/30 19:15, , 40^F

08/30 19:15, 40^F

推

08/30 19:23, , 41^F

08/30 19:23, 41^F

推

08/30 19:59, , 42^F

08/30 19:59, 42^F

推

08/30 20:20, , 43^F

08/30 20:20, 43^F

→

08/30 20:22, , 44^F

08/30 20:22, 44^F

→

08/30 20:22, , 45^F

08/30 20:22, 45^F

推

08/30 20:31, , 46^F

08/30 20:31, 46^F

→

08/30 20:32, , 47^F

08/30 20:32, 47^F

推

08/30 20:45, , 48^F

08/30 20:45, 48^F

推

08/30 20:48, , 49^F

08/30 20:48, 49^F

→

08/30 20:49, , 50^F

08/30 20:49, 50^F

推

08/30 21:22, , 51^F

08/30 21:22, 51^F

推

08/31 02:29, , 52^F

08/31 02:29, 52^F

推

08/31 09:20, , 53^F

08/31 09:20, 53^F

推

08/31 19:26, , 54^F

08/31 19:26, 54^F

推

09/01 10:04, , 55^F

09/01 10:04, 55^F

‣ 返回看板[ MLB ] #MLB

‣ 更多 JakeMcGee 的文章

文章代碼(AID): #1I817OYj (MLB)