Re: [外電] 不要再低估亞洲投手了
這篇文章我覺得很有問題,Dave Cameron多半的文章是邏輯很清楚很好的,
但三不五時會跑出這種一廂情願的調調,FG有作者相當熟悉亞洲棒球
但他可能不算在內。
就看底下最多like的一篇回應
I don’t see any of them is outperforming expectation either. Most scouting
reports believe Darvish is an Ace, and Ryu and Chen could be a solid No3, and
Uehara could be a No5 or effective RP if they can overcome mental and culture
challenge.
Iwakuma and Kuroda are different cases from others. They are not the same
pitchers as they were in Japan. They didn’t, or almost all the pitchers in
Japan don’t throw 2-seamer. They learned and master 2-seamer in the US at
age 30+. That is something too unusual to blame on scouts. Tazawa is absolute
a US farm product. Except for race, I don’t see any points you should group
him with the others in the list.
For success rate, the cost of bringing a player from Asian is much higher
than from anywhere in America. That’s why clubs only sign elite players, and
that’s why it is not fair to compare 9 elite players with the entire
population of minor leaguers in terms of success rate. I don’t think any
clubs underrates players in Asia. It is the cost issue to make the clubs only
bring truly outstanding players. The cost issue is due to these three
countries are all economic-developed and have their own, mature professional
baseball league.
我不認為這當中的任何一個人算是超出期待。多數的球探報告認為達比修是個王牌,
柳跟陳可以當個很不錯的三號,上原會是五號或者很好的RP,如果他們都能克服心理
跟文化上的衝擊的話。
岩熊跟黑田是不一樣的情形。他們兩個都不是當初在日本的那個投手。他們,或者幾乎
所有的日本投手都不丟二縫線。他們在三十多歲的年紀學會並且熟練二縫線,這是一個
太不尋常的狀況,不能因此責怪球探。田澤完全是個美國農作物,除了他的種族,我看
不出任何把他跟其他人放在同一個群組的點。
至於成功率,從亞洲帶投手過來比起從美洲貴上太多,這是為什麼球團只會簽頂級選手
,這也是為什麼你拿這九個頂級選手跟整個小聯盟的樣本去比成功率是不公平的。我不
認為有任何球團低估了亞洲投手,只是因為成本的關係讓他們只願意簽頂級選手。成本
的問題則是因為這三個國家都是已發展,並且有成熟的職棒體系。
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我覺得這回應完全打到點啊,大聯盟球隊真的有低估亞洲投手嗎?
Weaver弟當初也是被認為是一個直球普通但是變化球出色的投手
對他的projection也就是二三號,事實上他丟出來的成績也就是頂級二號到王牌之間
算是超出期待一點,但你說大聯盟會因為他是白人所以對有同樣stuff的投手給不同
評價嗎?我是真的不覺得這樣就是
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