Re: [問題] 新的一年砸錢隊會有好戰績嗎？

看板MLB作者abc12812時間13年前 (2013/01/02 13:14)推噓8(8推 0噓 1→)

留言9則, 9人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《joey1149 (Joey)》之銘言： : 如題, : 如果是支持面與反對面好像有例子 : 1.贊成: : MLB 04 07年的紅襪 08年的費城人 09年的洋基 : 中華職棒陳金鋒剛加那年的La New , 統一獅 : NBA 07年的馬刺 08年老賽 09,10年湖人 11年小牛 12年熱火 : 2.反對: : MLB 08,10年的洋基 12年的馬林魚,天使 (堆錢效果不如預期) : MLB 06,11年的紅雀 10,12年的巨人 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-myth-of-going-for-broke/ I looked at each team since 2002 whose overall payroll has jumped up by at least 20 percent during the offseason (payrolls have been increasing across baseball at a fairly steady rate of about four percent over this time). There have been 79 teams with payroll increases that qualified for this sample, and I looked at each team's change in win total from the previous season to see whether the payroll increase would coincide with an increase in wins. On average, the teams in the sample saw a change of -0.96 wins in the season in which they increased payroll. That's right, not only did these teams not improve, they actually, on average, lost one more game than in the previous season. 從2002年以來有79支球隊在隔年增加超過20%的薪資得到的成果是-0.96勝 Of the 79 teams that increased payroll by 20 percent from 2002-12, 47 had a payroll below 75 percent of the median in the year before the increase. On average these teams lost 1.7 more games in the season after the increase. 對47支小市場球隊來說成果是-1.7勝 I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but the average increase in wins was -0.26 (essentially negligible) for the 23 teams that had a higher than median payroll in the year before they increased payroll by 20 percent or more. 對23支大市場球隊來說成果是-0.26勝 Of the 79 teams in my sample, 28 won at least 88 games in the season before they increased payroll. My hypothesis would be that these 28 teams will have increased their payroll either to get back to the playoffs or get in after being in thick of playoff contention the year before. What was the effect of the increase in payroll on these 28 teams? Of those teams, 14 won 88 or more games again after increasing their payroll; the other 14 failed to repeat their success> Again, it seemed that the increase in payroll had no overall effect on a team's ability to repeat its success. 有28支球隊原本是88勝以上的強隊補強之後有一半贏超過88場另一半贏少於88場 Instead, my real point is that an increase in payroll does not guarantee results. 結論就是看起來灑錢好像不是很有用 (注: 這結果應該不難理解由於MLB特殊的薪資制度會進入FA的多半是年過30進入衰退期的球星花大錢買衰退球星的效益不高是正常的) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.109.64.140

推

Sparksfly

01/02 13:21, , 1^F

01/02 13:21, 1^F

推

Basket0205

01/02 15:55, , 2^F

01/02 15:55, 2^F

推

Ybrother

01/02 17:51, , 3^F

01/02 17:51, 3^F