Re: 別再用含混不清的WAR吧
: → borriss:把團隊war拿出來排一下看跟戰績差多少嘛... 10/09 22:59
既然只是簡單算數那我就加一加吧 美聯的部分
W-L 團隊WAR (野手/投手) (BR 版本)
NYY 95-67 47.9 (27.2+20.7)
OAK 94-68 42.4 (19.4+23.0)
TEX 93-69 42.0 (18.6+23.4)
BAL 93-69 33.1 (11.4+21.7)
TB 90-72 41.1 (18.6+22.5)
LAA 89-73 40.5 (37.9+2.6)
DET 88-74 36.9 (13.7+23.2)
CHW 85-77 37.8 (16.0+21.8)
SEA 75-87 27.8 (14.2+13.6)
TOR 73-89 22.8 (17.8+5.0)
KCR 72-90 24.7 (15.1+9.6)
BOS 69-93 18.9 (17.7+1.2)
CLE 68-94 13.4 (14.9+(-1.5))
MIN 66-96 18.8 (22.1+(-3.3))
Note:
0. 依照BR 的數據看來
他們抓的replacement level team 大概抓在一年50 勝
要想打季後賽 團隊WAR 最好有40 左右
1. 如果你只看W-L 和團隊WAR 基本上反應的很正常
最大的異常發生在BAL 身上
這當然是因為他們今年一分差比賽贏太多了..
2. 但這不表示再看第二眼後沒有奇怪的地方
a) 依照WAR 的看法, LAA 是支好隊, 但也是一支極端打強投弱的球隊
但這似乎跟一般看法不一樣
大概跟最近三年Angel Stadium 是投手球場
(2010-2012 Park Factor 都很穩定的排第27, 平均得分會乘0.83 左右)
大家又都沒有天使球場偏投手的印象有關 (所以會高估天使的投手成績)
但是 有差這麼多嗎? 分配上真的沒有出問題嗎?
舉例來說今年太色人total WAR 是7.5 (2.1+5.4) 毫無疑問很爛
可是連太色人的投手WAR 都比天使高....你相信嗎?
b) 相同的 MIN 的野手有這麼強嗎?
比一整排進季後賽球隊的都猛? 大概連雙城球迷自己都不相信
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※ 編輯: Herlin 來自: 114.45.210.51 (10/10 00:12)
※ 編輯: Herlin 來自: 114.45.210.51 (10/10 00:15)
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